New method for scalable learning of IRT models from large datasets.
problem Efficiently learning latent variables in IRT models from large numbers of examinees and items.
method Leveraging logistic regression and coresets for scalable IRT training.
result Scalable learning of IRT models from large data is achieved.
Study develops a new algorithm for assessing clinical trial abstracts.
problem Limited tools for assessing qualitative statements in clinical research.
method Developed a three-class sentiment classification algorithm using BERT model.
result Algorithm achieved 91.3% classification accuracy and 0.92 macro F1-Score.
Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to lar…
Transformers learn to predict chess moves with surprising accuracy and strength.
problem Training transformers on chess to predict moves accurately.
method Large-scale chess dataset (10M games), supervised learning with up to 270M parameters.
result Transformers can predict action-values for novel boards with high accuracy.
New deep learning methods improve estimation and GOF assessment for large-scale IFA.
problem Estimating and assessing goodness-of-fit for large-scale confirmatory IFA models.
method Extended deep learning algorithm for parameter estimation and simulation-based tests for GOF assessment.
result Proposed methods provide comparable estimates and detect latent dimensionality misspecification.
Paper proposes PPMM for fast estimation of large-scale OTM.
problem Estimation of large-scale optimal transport maps (OTM) is challenging due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Combines projection pursuit regression and sufficient dimension reduction to adaptively select projection directions.
result PPMM consistently estimates the most informative projection direction and weakly converges to the target OTM.
Method analyzes large-scale network data to detect communication pattern shifts.
problem Analyzing large-scale time-series network data is challenging.
method Temporal encoder embedding method using ground-truth or estimated vertex labels.
result Detects communication pattern shifts across all levels of network structure.
Unified model predicts stock and systemic risks from diverse financial data.
problem Isolating financial tasks leads to missed cross-scale dependencies.
method Shared Transformer backbone with modular task heads for cross-modal attention and multi-task optimization.
result Uni-FinLLM significantly outperforms baselines in stock forecasting, credit-risk assessment, and systemic-risk detection.
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of u…
Modern machine learning systems such as image classifiers rely heavily on large scale data sets for training. Such data sets are costly to create, thus in practice a small number of freely available, open source data sets are widely used. We suggest that examining the geo-diversity of open data sets is critical before …
CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.
problem Misidentification of unimportant variables in complex models due to covariate correlations.
method Developed a model agnostic and computationally lean Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) approach.
result CPI provides accurate type-I error control and more parsimonious variable selection.
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets, the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding. As an alternative, we present the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB), a new procedure which incorporates fea…
Calibration without labels in multiple testing
problem Interpretable error probabilities in large-scale hypothesis testing
method Constructing pseudo-labels from spacings of ordered p-values result Finding that q-value can be severely miscalibrated We study the problem of large scale, multi-label visual recognition with a large number of possible classes. We propose a method for augmenting a trained neural network classifier with auxiliary capacity in a manner designed to significantly improve upon an already well-performing model, while minimally impacting its c…
The paper identifies and critiques problems with risk matrices using ordinal scales.
problem Problems with risk matrices using ordinal scales.
method Overview of risk assessment process, explanation of fallacies, and suggestions for improvement.
result The paper proposes avoiding risk matrices and using fully quantitative methods instead.
C-FAR automates clustering assessment for neural tracking.
problem Manual assessment of clusters by humans is slow and impractical for large datasets.
method C-FAR uses automated feedback queries to select optimal clustering from multiple algorithms.
result C-FAR produces near-perfect clustering on simulated neural data.
Employing data on the assessed value of land in 1974--2007 Japan, we exhibit a quasistatically varying log-normal distribution in the middle scale region. In the derivation, a Non-Gibrat's law under the detailed quasi-balance is adopted together with two approximations. The resultant distribution is power-law with the …
This paper investigates uncertainty calibration in multimodal large language models.
problem Challenges in properly calibrating uncertainty in multimodal large language models.
method Investigation of representative MLLMs across various scenarios, including visual fine-tuning and multimodal training.
result MLLMs tend to give answers rather than admit uncertainty, but this self-assessment improves with proper prompt adjustments.
LSTM model predicts climate impacts on floods and droughts.
problem Predicting climate impacts on individual watersheds is challenging.
method Large-scale LSTM training on extensive data sets.
result LSTM model outperforms state-of-the-art models in predicting extreme flows.
ConvNets improve nonstationary covariance estimation for large-scale spatial data.
problem Estimating nonstationary spatial covariance functions on large scales.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) for subregion identification and selection.
result Enhanced accuracy in parameter estimation using ConvNet-based partitioning.
We conduct a large-scale, systematic study to evaluate the existing evaluation methods for natural language generation in the context of generating online product reviews. We compare human-based evaluators with a variety of automated evaluation procedures, including discriminative evaluators that measure how well machi…
New method approximates CV efficiently for large-scale problems.
problem High computational cost of standard CV in large-scale problems.
method Iterative first-order algorithm to approximate CV solution.
result Extends CV approximation guarantees to non-converged solutions.
Study evaluates machine learning methods for large-scale network reliability, revealing ANN's and PR's performance.
problem Tackles the NP-hard problem of approximating binary-state network reliability for large-scale systems.
method Compares 20 machine learning methods across three reliability regimes and evaluates their performance on large-scale networks.
result Large-scale networks with arc reliability ≥ 0.9 exhibit near-unity system reliability, enabling computational simplifications.
R2DE assesses new exam questions quickly and accurately.
problem Assessing newly generated exam questions efficiently and accurately.
method R2DE uses NLP to estimate difficulty and discrimination of questions based on their text.
result R2DE can estimate question difficulty and discrimination quickly and accurately.
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
This paper reviews recent advances in Gaussian process regression methods.
problem Handling uncertainties and scalability in large-scale systems with sparse data.
method Factorised Gaussian process methods, including hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation and GP with Kronecker structures.
result These methods provide scalable solutions with inherent uncertainty assessment.
Unified framework for fast large-scale portfolio optimization.
problem Efficient portfolio optimization for large-scale financial data.
method Incorporates shrinkage and regularization techniques, addressing multiple objectives.
result AP-Trees and PCA-based factor models consistently outperform other approaches in out-of-sample portfolio performance.
Initializing the weights and the biases is a key part of the training process of a neural network. Unlike the subsequent optimization phase, however, the initialization phase has gained only limited attention in the literature. In this paper we discuss some consequences of commonly used initialization strategies for va…
The treatment effects of medications play a key role in guiding medical prescriptions. They are usually assessed with randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which are expensive. Recently, large-scale electronic health records (EHRs) have become available, opening up new opportunities for more cost-effective assessments. …
Super-resolution methods form high-resolution images from low-resolution images. In this paper, we develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model for super-resolution. Our method uses a beta-Bernoulli process to learn a set of recurring visual patterns, called dictionary elements, from the data. Because it is nonparametric…
Shifts dataset evaluates uncertainty in real-world tasks across modalities.
problem Lack of standard datasets for evaluating uncertainty estimation and robustness to distributional shift.
method Proposes Shifts Dataset for evaluation of uncertainty estimates and robustness to distributional shift across tabular, audio, text, and sensor data.
result Baseline results for tabular weather prediction, machine translation, and SDC vehicle motion prediction.
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem, evaluating the uncertainties associated with the default predictions remains littl…
PePR scores assess DL model performance per resource unit, promoting smaller, more efficient models.
problem Limited access to large-scale resources hinders medical image analysis research.
method Introduced PePR score to measure DL model performance per resource unit.
result Small-scale, specialized models outperform large-scale models in resource-constrained settings.
PRoA assesses deep learning robustness against practical functional perturbations.
problem Inadequate practical robustness verification methods for deep learning systems.
method Probabilistic robustness assessment based on adaptive concentration.
result Statistical guarantees on probabilistic robustness against functional perturbations.
Improved market state classification for risk assessment.
problem Classifying financial market states for better risk assessment.
method Modified selection criteria for market states, clustering optimization, and visualization of correlation matrices.
result Statistically significant results in SP 500 and Nikkei 225 markets.
Applying deep learning methods to mammography assessment has remained a challenging topic. Dense noise with sparse expressions, mega-pixel raw data resolution, lack of diverse examples have all been factors affecting performance. The lack of pixel-level ground truths have especially limited segmentation methods in push…
Study assesses risk of upward lightning at wind turbines using direct measurements and machine learning.
problem Risk underestimation of upward lightning at wind turbines due to limited detection by current standards.
method Direct UL measurements linked to meteorological reanalysis data using random forests.
result Risk maps based on case study events show high probabilities coincide with actual UL events.
Generative adversarial networks (GAN) are a powerful subclass of generative models. Despite a very rich research activity leading to numerous interesting GAN algorithms, it is still very hard to assess which algorithm(s) perform better than others. We conduct a neutral, multi-faceted large-scale empirical study on stat…
Water pollution is a major global environmental problem, and it poses a great environmental risk to public health and biological diversity. This work is motivated by assessing the potential environmental threat of coal mining through increased sulfate concentrations in river networks, which do not belong to any simple …
Shai is a 10B model for asset management tasks, outperforming baselines.
problem Improving performance in asset management tasks.
method Continuous pre-training and fine-tuning on asset management-specific data.
result Shai outperforms baseline models in asset management tasks.
WCAM assesses neural network reliability by attributing decisions to wavelet scales.
problem Challenges in evaluating neural network reliability and feature robustness.
method Introduces WCAM, a wavelet-based attribution method to assess decision reliability.
result WCAM reveals where and on what scales a model focuses, enabling reliable decision assessment.
Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging offers a wide variety of imaging techniques. A large amount of data is created per examination which needs to be checked for sufficient quality in order to derive a meaningful diagnosis. This is a manual process and therefore time- and cost-intensive. Any imaging artifacts originating fr…
ElbowSig assesses clustering structure at multiple scales.
problem Selecting optimal number of clusters in unsupervised learning.
method Formalizes elbow heuristic with a normalized discrete curvature statistic.
result Validates multiscale clustering structure over various resolutions.
This work uses image generation models to find vision model bugs.
problem Automatically discovering failures in vision models.
method Conditional text-to-image generation and captioning models.
result Demonstrated utility of large-scale generative models to find vision model bugs.
We propose a novel method designed for large-scale regression problems, namely the two-stage best-scored random forest (TBRF). "Best-scored" means to select one regression tree with the best empirical performance out of a certain number of purely random regression tree candidates, and "two-stage" means to divide the or…
New framework assesses deep learning models for spatio-temporal data with missing data.
problem Challenges in assessing deep learning models for spatio-temporal data with missing and heterogeneous data.
method Residual correlation analysis framework using spatio-temporal graphs and asymptotically distribution-free summary statistics.
result Identification and localization of regions where predictive performance can be improved.
Hybrid approach combines user feedback and machine learning for predicting user satisfaction.
problem Measuring user satisfaction in large-scale conversational agent systems.
method Fusion of explicit user feedback and predictions from two machine-learned models trained on different data types.
result Hybrid approach significantly improves user satisfaction predictions.
Robust method estimates self-similarity for mammogram images, improving cancer detection.
problem Statistical assessment of self-similarity in real data with large mean level shifts.
method Theil-type weighted regression for wavelet-based estimation, compared to OLS and AV.
result Robust approach shows nearly 68% accuracy in cancer vs non-cancer classification.