Extends saddle-point method for large-time volatility smiles.
problem Analyzing large-time volatility smiles in financial models.
method Saddle-point approach to derive large-time model-implied volatility smiles.
result Provides theoretical foundation and wide class of arbitrage-free parametrizations.
Optimizes variance reduction in Heston model using large and moderate deviations.
problem Improving variance reduction in stochastic volatility models.
method Large and moderate deviations theory applied to Heston model.
result Derives closed-form solutions for optimal change of measure.
Paper develops large time series models using pre-trained transformers.
problem Performance bottlenecks in small models on data-scarce scenarios.
method Large-scale pre-training, unified time series format, GPT-style architecture.
result Generative pre-trained Time Series Transformer (Timer) for diverse tasks.
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of u…
A faster method for visualization recommendations on large datasets.
problem Infeasibility of state-of-the-art vis-rec models on large datasets due to high computational time.
method Reinforcement-learning (RL) framework that identifies optimal statistics within a time budget.
result Significantly reduces time-to-visualize with minimal error compared to baseline approaches.
We propose a practical and scalable Gaussian process model for large-scale nonlinear probabilistic regression. Our mixture-of-experts model is conceptually simple and hierarchically recombines computations for an overall approximation of a full Gaussian process. Closed-form and distributed computations allow for effici…
IVON optimizes large neural networks, matching or outperforming Adam.
problem The inefficacy of variational learning in large neural networks.
method Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer.
result IVON consistently matches or outperforms Adam for large networks.
Survey on using large models to train smaller datasets in NLP.
problem Lack of large datasets and computing resources for NLP tasks.
method Analysis of recent transfer learning approaches in NLP.
result Increased demand for transfer learning in NLP due to large models.
Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
problem Large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
method Established a small-noise large deviation principle for log-price.
result Logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes in a special case.
This work aims to create a large-scale model for critical care time series data.
problem Lack of large-scale datasets and distribution shifts in critical care time series data.
method Harmonized dataset creation and transfer learning research.
result Established a foundation for large-scale multi-variate time series models in critical care.
New kernel model scales to large datasets.
problem Challenges in scaling kernel machines to large datasets.
method Introduced EigenPro 3.0, an algorithm based on projected dual preconditioned SGD.
result Ability to scale model and data sizes independently.
Bayesian data sketching speeds up inference for large functional data.
problem Slow posterior computations in Bayesian varying coefficient models for large data.
method Compress functional response and predictor matrix using random linear transformation.
result Fully model-based Bayesian inference on compressed data.
Researchers analyze the structure of token spaces in large language models.
problem Understanding the geometric and topological structure of token spaces in large language models.
method Developed estimators for the dimension and Ricci scalar curvature of the token subspace and applied them to three large language models.
result The token subspace is not a manifold but a stratified manifold with significantly negative Ricci curvature.
Large deviation principles for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of log-processes in multivariate stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle for log-processes.
result Asymptotic formulas for first exit times and barrier option prices derived from the LDP.
MARS optimizes large model training by reducing variance, outperforming AdamW.
problem Training large models efficiently and scalably.
method Unified optimization framework MARS combining preconditioned gradient updates and variance reduction.
result MARS outperforms AdamW in training GPT-2 models.
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
The majority of real-world networks are dynamic and extremely large (e.g., Internet Traffic, Twitter, Facebook, ...). To understand the structural behavior of nodes in these large dynamic networks, it may be necessary to model the dynamics of behavioral roles representing the main connectivity patterns over time. In th…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviors of implied volatility of an affine jump-diffusion model. Let log stock price under risk-neutral measure follow an affine jump-diffusion model, we show that an explicit form of moment generating function for log stock price can be obtained by solving a set of ordinary dif…
DS-CP improves reliability of uncertainty quantification for large language models under domain shift.
problem Overconfident and factually incorrect outputs (hallucinations) from large language models.
method Adapts conformal prediction to large language models under domain shift by reweighting calibration samples.
result DS-CP delivers more reliable coverage than standard conformal prediction, especially under substantial distribution shifts.
Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.
problem Impossibility of conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language models.
method Proof of impossibility in a distribution-free setting for non-atomic input spaces.
result Any algorithm achieving conditional PAC efficiency must defer to the expert model with high probability.
Large learning rates enhance model robustness and compressibility.
problem Achieving robustness and resource-efficiency in machine learning models.
method Identifying and utilizing large learning rates as a facilitator for robustness and compressibility.
result Large learning rates produce desirable representation properties and compare favorably to other methods.
Paper introduces scalable clustering for large datasets with outliers.
problem Lack of scalable algorithms for large datasets with outliers.
method Provable robust clustering algorithm based on loss minimization for Gaussian mixture models.
result Algorithm provides high accuracy with theoretical guarantees and outperforms existing methods.
Graph signal processing detects hallucinations in large language models.
problem Detecting factual reasoning from hallucinations in large language models.
method Modeling transformer layers as dynamic graphs, using spectral analysis to define diagnostics.
result Spectral signatures can distinguish different types of hallucinations and achieve high accuracy.
Theoretical analysis of data quality and synergies in LLMs.
problem Understanding why different training methods require different amounts of data.
method Theoretical analysis of transformers trained on a weight prediction task for linear regression.
result SFT excels on smaller datasets challenging for the pretrained model, while RL benefits from large, not overly difficult data.
This work explains how linear representations in large language models arise from training objectives and gradient descent.
problem Understanding the origins of linear representations in large language models.
method A latent variable model to abstract and formalize concept dynamics, combined with analysis of the softmax cross-entropy objective and gradient descent.
result Linear representations emerge when learning from data matching the latent variable model, and this simple structure suffices to yield linear representations.
We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal dist…
Proposes MamBO for efficient high-dimensional large-scale optimization.
problem High-dimensional and large-scale optimization problems in machine learning and simulation.
method Combines subsampling and subspace embeddings with model aggregation to address uncertainty in surrogate models.
result Improves robustness of Bayesian optimization algorithm and achieves superior performance.
PAVI speeds up Bayesian inference for large datasets.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for large population studies.
method Plate-amortized Variational Inference (PAVI) that shares parameterization across i.i.d. variables.
result Significant speedup in training variational distributions, orders of magnitude faster.
Develops path integral for spiked tensor model dynamics.
problem Dynamics of spiked tensor model with random initial conditions.
method Path integral approach applied to partial differential equations.
result Large-N saddle point equations dominated by melonic diagrams. Develops a statistical framework to measure uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences.
problem Uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences due to mismatch between human and model preferences.
method Statistical framework using pairwise comparisons by humans and models to provide rank-sets for each model.
result Rank-sets constructed using only pairwise comparisons by strong models often do not cover the true ranking of human preferences.
This paper optimizes caching and model multiplexing for large model inference.
problem Resource consumption and latency challenges in large model deployment.
method Jointly optimizing a caching algorithm (GDSF or LEC) and a model multiplexer for large model inference.
result Achieves optimal rates in offline and online settings with up to 50x improvement over baseline.
New model explains deep learning performance at large learning rates.
problem Understanding deep learning performance at different learning rates.
method Developed neural networks with solvable training dynamics.
result Large learning rates lead to convergence to flatter minima.
Large language models improve futures market factor models in China.
problem Designing effective factor models for Chinese futures markets.
method Used large language models (GPT) to generate 40 factors for single and multi-factor portfolios.
result GPT-generated factors outperform benchmarks with high Sharpe ratios and alphas.
PipeDream-2BW accelerates large model training by 20x with minimal memory usage.
problem Training large models requires memory beyond single accelerator capacity.
method Pipeline parallelism, weight gradient coalescing, double buffering.
result Accelerates large model training by up to 20x.
New method speeds up training of large kernel models.
problem Scaling kernel machines to large datasets and model sizes.
method Delayed projections in Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent (PSGD).
result Significant training speed up over existing methods.
Shai is a 10B model for asset management tasks, outperforming baselines.
problem Improving performance in asset management tasks.
method Continuous pre-training and fine-tuning on asset management-specific data.
result Shai outperforms baseline models in asset management tasks.
Proposes a robust algorithm for aligning large language models with human preferences.
problem Misspecification in preference models, reference policies, and reward functions.
method Doubly robust preference optimization algorithm.
result Superior and more robust performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.
New method for scalable learning of IRT models from large datasets.
problem Efficiently learning latent variables in IRT models from large numbers of examinees and items.
method Leveraging logistic regression and coresets for scalable IRT training.
result Scalable learning of IRT models from large data is achieved.
Efficient knockoffs for large-scale feature selection.
problem Large-scale feature selection problems.
method Gaussian model-X knockoffs with efficient methods for solving semidefinite programs.
result Efficient knockoffs can be generated with linear complexity in the dimension.
We study here the large-time behaviour of all continuous affine stochastic volatility models (in the sense of Keller-Ressel) and deduce a closed-form formula for the large-maturity implied volatility smile. Based on refinements of the Gartner-Ellis theorem on the real line, our proof reveals pathological behaviours of …
Online method learns sparse models efficiently in large scale settings.
problem Sparse model learning in large scale settings with high computational and memory costs.
method Online learning approach, mini-batch methods, hard thresholding based stochastic gradient algorithm.
result Sparsity promoted by batch methods is not preserved in online fashion.
The problem of hedging and pricing sequences of contingent claims in large financial markets is studied. Connection between asymptotic arbitrage and behavior of the α~-~quantile price is shown. The large Black-Scholes model is carefully examined.
Large language models have recently achieved state of the art performance across a wide variety of natural language tasks. Meanwhile, the size of these models and their latency have significantly increased, which makes their usage costly, and raises an interesting question: do language models need to be large? We study…
This work uses conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty in large language models for multiple-choice questions.
problem Ensuring robustness and reliability of large language models in high-stakes applications.
method Conformal prediction applied to multi-choice question answering.
result Uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are closely related to prediction accuracy.
Large language models correlate in errors, even with different architectures and providers.
problem Lack of empirical evidence on whether different large language models differ meaningfully.
method Empirical evaluation of over 350 large language models using two leaderboards and a resume-screening task.
result Large language models have substantial correlation in errors, even with distinct architectures and providers.
Model asset pricing with habit formation in a large market.
problem Understanding asset pricing in large heterogeneous markets with habit formation.
method Mean field game theory and quadratic-growth mean field BSDEs.
result Derives a semi-analytic solution for asset pricing model.
Large-scale precision matrix estimation is of fundamental importance yet challenging in many contemporary applications for recovering Gaussian graphical models. In this paper, we suggest a new approach of innovated scalable efficient estimation (ISEE) for estimating large precision matrix. Motivated by the innovated tr…
New MCMC method for complex models with large variables.
problem Inference on posterior model probabilities in large model spaces.
method Reversible genetically modified mode jumping Markov chain Monte Carlo (GMJMCMC).
result Introduced a proper MCMC with correct limiting distribution.