Research improves LGD approximation using XGBoost for cash-flow-limited data.
problem Accurate LGD calculation with limited cash-flow data.
method Enhanced delta outstanding approach with XGBoost machine learning.
result XGBoost model enhances realized LGD estimation accuracy.
LGD algorithm learns optimal hyperparameters for regression tasks.
problem Learning to learn hyperparameters for regression problems.
method Langevin Gradient Descent (LGD) approximates posterior distribution.
result Meta-learning optimal hyperparameters achieves Bayes' optimal solution.
Survival analysis models predict loan write-off risk under IFRS 9.
problem Estimating loan write-off probabilities in credit risk modeling.
method Discrete-time hazard model and conditional inference survival tree compared to cross-sectional logistic regression.
result Discrete-time hazard model outperforms other two-stage LGD-models.
The paper uses CPI growth rates to improve LGD predictions for CRE loans.
problem Challenges in forecasting LGD for CRE loans due to extended resolution times and restricted data.
method Combines internal and public data, including CPI growth rates, to forecast CRE LGD.
result Incorporating CPI at the time of default improves LGD prediction accuracy.
Paper calculates loan loss after default using Bayesian model.
problem Determining loan loss after borrower default.
method Bayesian scheme considering repayment period, volumes, moments, and parameters.
result Allows setting LGD less than or equal to 1 for accurate estimates.
A new model calculates LGD distribution based on firm value and credit market conditions.
problem Estimating LGD distribution in credit markets.
method Uses last passage time of a linear diffusion process to model LGD distribution.
result Explicit distributions of default time and LGD are obtained under minimal assumptions.
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for capital charges are numerically compared to the current proposals by the Basel Commit…
Proposes a new method for determining LGD discount rates based on cost of capital.
problem Determining an appropriate discount rate for LGD estimation.
method Market-consistent pricing of defaulted loan portfolios to infer discount rates.
result Discount rates reflect both undiversifiable risk and time value of money.
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover losses during the adverse economic downturns; the so-called "downturn LGD" requ…
The purpose of this paper is to identify a relevant statistical correlation between rate of default, RD, and loss given default, LGD, in a major Brazilian financial institution Retail Home Equity exposure rated using the IRB approach, so that we may find a causal relationship between the two risk parameters. Therefore,…
After the release of the final accounting standards for impairment in July 2014 by the IASB, banks will face the next significant methodological challenge after Basel 2. In this paper, first methodological thoughts are presented, and ways how to approach underlying questions are proposed. It starts with a detailed disc…
A censored transformed model for proportional outcomes with boundary mass and an application to loss given default modeling.
problem Modeling proportional outcomes with boundary mass in loss given default (LGD) modeling.
method Zero-one censored transformed normal (ZOC-TN) model.
result Captures a wider range of qualitative density shapes than benchmark models while being parsimonious, computationally efficient, and numerically stable.
The utility of Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for counterparty trading limits is being challenged by new market developments, notably widespread regulatory Initial Margin (using 99% 10-day exposure), and netting of trade and collateral flows. However PFE has pre-existing challenges w.r.t. portfolios/distributions, col…
Stochastic Gradient Descent or SGD is the most popular optimization algorithm for large-scale problems. SGD estimates the gradient by uniform sampling with sample size one. There have been several other works that suggest faster epoch-wise convergence by using weighted non-uniform sampling for better gradient estimates…
Attributing forecast gaps to component models in complex model suites
problem Attributing forecast gaps between model-suite forecasts and realized outcomes
method Formalizing walk analysis and adapting order-independent attribution frameworks
result Deriving efficient formulas for elementwise and vectorized gap attribution
The paper tackles attributing forecast gaps in complex model suites.
problem Attributing forecast gaps to individual component models in complex model suites.
method Formalized walk analysis, adapted LMDI and Shapley value approaches.
result Developed efficient formulas for gap attribution in practical portfolio-scale examples.
We consider distributed optimization under communication constraints for training deep learning models. We propose a new algorithm, whose parameter updates rely on two forces: a regular gradient step, and a corrective direction dictated by the currently best-performing worker (leader). Our method differs from the param…
Modeling bank portfolio risk under climate transition impacts.
problem Evaluating risk measures for a bank's collateralized loans in a climate transition economy.
method Developed an end-to-end modeling framework using stochastic processes and dynamic macroeconomic variables.
result Derived expressions for risk measures as functions of climate transition parameters.
The study provides conditions for approximating Riemannian manifolds with polyhedral metrics.
problem Approximating Riemannian manifolds with polyhedral metrics.
method Conditions on curvature tensors for Lipschitz and local polyhedral approximations.
result Conditions are sufficient for local polyhedral approximations, conjectured to be sufficient for global approximations.
Geometric Gaussian approximations capture any distribution.
problem Approximating complex probability distributions.
method Geometric Gaussian approximations through diffeomorphisms or exponential maps.
result Geometric Gaussian approximations are universal, capturing any distribution.
Method approximates Riemannian barycenter on manifolds.
problem Computing the exact Riemannian barycenter is computationally expensive.
method Uses under- and over-approximations of Riemannian distance to compute an approximate barycenter.
result Approximation method is more efficient than exact methods and steepest descent.
We consider in this paper the optimal approximations of convex univariate functions with feed-forward Relu neural networks. We are interested in the following question: what is the minimal approximation error given the number of approximating linear pieces? We establish the necessary and sufficient conditions and uniqu…
Efficiently reduces tensor ranks using mean-field approximation.
problem Low-rank approximation of non-negative tensors.
method Mean-field approximation of tensor rank reduction.
result Our algorithm achieves faster and competitive tensor rank reduction.
Study approximates unknown function levels with queries.
problem Approximating unknown function levels through sequential queries.
method Introduce Bisect and Approximate algorithms to reduce to local function approximation.
result Rate-optimal sample complexity guarantees for H{ö}lder functions.
We study sparse approximate solutions to convex optimization problems. It is known that in many engineering applications researchers are interested in an approximate solution of an optimization problem as a linear combination of elements from a given system of elements. There is an increasing interest in building such …
Softmax attention approximates complex functions and subsumes many known universal approximators.
problem Universal approximation of continuous sequence-to-sequence functions.
method Interpolation-based analysis of attention's internal mechanism, showing its ability to approximate ReLU functions.
result Softmax attention is a universal approximator for continuous sequence-to-sequence functions.
Improved matrix approximation using randomized algorithms.
problem Finding better approximations of given matrices.
method Randomized algorithms to compute (HT) as an improved approximation. result Computed (HT) provides a better approximation than given F∗. Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
Neural approximate computing gains enormous energy-efficiency at the cost of tolerable quality-loss. A neural approximator can map the input data to output while a classifier determines whether the input data are safe to approximate with quality guarantee. However, existing works cannot maximize the invocation of the a…
Approximate symmetries of geodesic equations on 2-spheres are studied. These are the symmetries of the perturbed geodesic equations which represent approximate path of a particle rather than exact path. After giving the exact symmetries of the geodesic equations, two different approaches to study the approximate symmet…
We are concerned with an approximation problem for a symmetric positive semidefinite matrix due to motivation from a class of nonlinear machine learning methods. We discuss an approximation approach that we call {matrix ridge approximation}. In particular, we define the matrix ridge approximation as an incomplete matri…
Transformers use ReLUs to approximate softmax efficiently.
problem Analyzing resource usage in softmax transformer models.
method Translating ReLU approximation results to softmax attention mechanisms.
result Economic resource bounds for softmax attention mechanisms.
Approximating complex curves with simple parametric curves is widely used in CAGD, CG, and CNC. This paper presents an algorithm to compute a certified approximation to a given parametric space curve with cubic B-spline curves. By certified, we mean that the approximation can approximate the given curve to any given pr…
Recently, variational approximations such as the mean field approximation have received much interest. We extend the standard mean field method by using an approximating distribution that factorises into cluster potentials. This includes undirected graphs, directed acyclic graphs and junction trees. We derive generaliz…
Adaptive approximations improve variational inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximate marginal distributions and partition functions in complex probabilistic models.
method Two classes of adaptive approximations that include Bethe, tree-reweighted, and convex free energies.
result Proposed approximations automatically adapt to a given model and outperform existing methods.
Non-negative L1-approximating polynomials for Gaussian distributions are proven for certain classes of sets.
problem Existence of non-negative L1-approximating polynomials for Gaussian distributions. method Proving the existence of degree-k non-negative polynomials that approximate indicator functions of sets with Gaussian surface area in L1-norm. result Proves the existence of non-negative L1-approximating polynomials for certain classes of sets with Gaussian surface area. Paper introduces new approximations for lognormal sums, matching comonotonicity and moments.
problem Approximating sums of lognormal random variables accurately.
method Introduces new approximations based on weighted distribution theory, emphasizing comonotonicity and moment matching.
result Approximations perform better than classical methods, especially in the right tail of the distribution.
Paper analyzes normal approximation for two-timescale stochastic algorithms, revealing interaction between fast and slow timescales.
problem Non-asymptotic bounds for accuracy of normal approximation in linear two-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms.
method Established bounds for normal approximation in terms of convex distance, focusing on last iterate and Polyak-Ruppert averaging.
result Normal approximation rate for the last iterate improves with increased timescale separation, while it decreases in the averaged setting.
One-pass algorithm finds small subset for ℓp subspace approximation with additive error.
problem Finding a small subset of data points for ℓp subspace approximation. method One-pass subset selection with additive approximation guarantee for p∈[1,∞). result First one-pass algorithm with additive error for ℓp subspace approximation. We are interested in approximation of a multivariate function f(x1,…,xd) by linear combinations of products u1(x1)⋯ud(xd) of univariate functions ui(xi), i=1,…,d. In the case d=2 it is a classical problem of bilinear approximation. In the case of approximation in the L2 space the bili…
A new method for efficient Gaussian process inference using sparse approximations.
problem Scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes.
method Variational approximation with sparse inverse Cholesky factors and double Kullback-Leibler minimization.
result The proposed method can achieve highly accurate approximations with polylogarithmic time complexity.
In this paper, we propose a low-rank approximation method based on discrete least-squares for the approximation of a multivariate function from random, noisy-free observations. Sparsity inducing regularization techniques are used within classical algorithms for low-rank approximation in order to exploit the possible sp…
Neural network based approximate computing is a universal architecture promising to gain tremendous energy-efficiency for many error resilient applications. To guarantee the approximation quality, existing works deploy two neural networks (NNs), e.g., an approximator and a predictor. The approximator provides the appro…
The paper approximates supply curves using a one-step basis method.
problem Computing supply curves accurately and efficiently.
method Derives L2 approximation expression and proposes node selection procedure.
result Illustrates the approach with European electricity market bid curves.
The paper defines a new concept of approximability for Lagrangian submanifolds.
problem Understanding the approximability of Lagrangian submanifolds.
method Introducing a new notion of categorical approximability for metric spaces, showing it applies to specific types of Lagrangian submanifolds.
result Examples of Lagrangian submanifolds are found that are approximable but not precompact.
Boosting Nyström improves accuracy of matrix approximations.
problem Generating low-rank approximations of large matrices efficiently.
method Iteratively generate multiple weak Nyström approximations, combine them to form a strong approximation.
result Boosting Nyström yields more efficient and accurate low-rank approximations.
High-probability bound for distributed stochastic approximation tracking error.
problem Analyzing the convergence of distributed stochastic approximation schemes.
method Analysis using ODE approach to stochastic approximation.
result High probability bound for tracking error between iterates and limiting differential equation.
Nyström KPCA balances computational efficiency and statistical accuracy.
problem Computational burden in large sample situations for kernel methods.
method Theoretical analysis of Nyström approximate kernel principal component analysis (KPCA).
result Nyström approximate KPCA matches statistical performance of non-approximate KPCA while being computationally beneficial.