The article improves prediction by aggregating Kalman recursions online.
problem Improving expert aggregation in prediction models.
method Using exponential weights and state-space models to aggregate Kalman recursions.
result New algorithms outperform existing methods in Kalman recursion expert aggregation.
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
Recursive KalmanNet generalizes well in noisy, out-of-distribution scenarios.
problem Generalization in noisy, out-of-distribution scenarios.
method Recurrent neural network guided by a Kalman filter.
result Recursive KalmanNet performs well in scenarios with different temporal dynamics from training data.
In this manuscript we introduce numerical Gaussian process Kalman filtering (GPKF). Numerical Gaussian processes have recently been developed to simulate spatiotemporal models. The contribution of this paper is to embed numerical Gaussian processes into the recursive Kalman filter equations. This embedding enables us t…
Paper develops efficient recursive learning for multi-channel systems with heterogeneous dynamics.
problem Accurately learning system dynamics in complex, multi-channel systems with nonlinear and noisy data.
method Formulates system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs), introduces heterogeneous multi-output kernel, and develops recursive inference framework.
result Matches SOTA offline GPSSMs in accuracy with 1/100 runtime, and outperforms SOTA online GPSSMs by 70% in accuracy under noise with 1/20 runtime.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
problem Numerical instability and inefficiency in approximate inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Conjugate-computation variational inference with Kalman recursions.
result Linear-time inference with fast and stable variational inference for state-space GP models.
Study uses machine learning to predict stock prices, finds Kalman filter works well for low-volatility stocks.
problem Predicting stock prices using machine learning.
method Applied recursive machine learning techniques including linear Kalman filters and LSTM architectures to historical stock prices.
result Simple linear Kalman filter performs well for low-volatility stocks, while LSTM architectures outperform for high-volatility stocks.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
This paper refines the Gaussian Sinkhorn algorithm for general multivariate models.
problem Finite-dimensional solutions for general Gaussian multivariate models.
method Recursive formulation of the Sinkhorn algorithm for Gaussian models, including closed form expressions of entropic transport maps and Schrödinger bridges.
result Refined convergence analysis of Gaussian Sinkhorn algorithms.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs to larger datasets, several sparse approximations based on so-called inducing p…
Develops inverse extended Kalman filter for predicting adversarial steps.
problem Predicting adversarial Kalman filter estimates from limited information.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for non-linear systems with unknown inputs.
result Derives I-EKF with theoretical stability guarantees and consistency proofs.
Improved robustness for high-dimensional Kalman filtering.
problem Convergence issues in sequential variational inference filter (VIF).
method Variational Kalman Filtering with Hinf-based correction.
result Improved feasibility and robustness in high-dimensional systems.
KOALA optimizes neural networks by treating loss as noisy measurements.
problem Training neural networks with changing loss functions.
method Adopting Kalman filtering for stochastic optimization.
result KOALA yields estimates on par with state-of-the-art methods.
Unified framework for ensemble transport-based smoothing of non-Gaussian time series.
problem Bayesian time series re-analysis with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Measure transport approach to derive consistent prior-to-posterior transformations.
result General ensemble framework for transport-based smoothing of state-space models.
Develops inverse EKF for non-linear systems with stability guarantees and learning unknown dynamics.
problem Estimating adversary's Kalman-filtered estimates in highly non-linear systems.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for second-order, Gaussian sum, and dithered forward models. Uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space for learning unknown dynamics.
result Derives theoretical stability guarantees for inverse second-order EKF.
Dynamical models estimate and predict the temporal evolution of physical systems. State Space Models (SSMs) in particular represent the system dynamics with many desirable properties, such as being able to model uncertainty in both the model and measurements, and optimal (in the Bayesian sense) recursive formulations e…
Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes improve probabilistic model inference for large datasets.
problem Efficient inference for large-scale time series data.
method Combining inducing variables with Kalman filter-like recursions for linear scaling.
result General site-based approach for approximating non-Gaussian likelihoods.
A new method infers neural trajectories in real-time, improving experimental design.
problem Real-time inference of neural trajectories for immediate feedback.
method Exponential family variational Kalman filter (eVKF) for online learning.
result eVKF achieves competitive performance on synthetic and real-world data.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
Develops inverse unscented Kalman filter for non-linear systems.
problem Estimating defender's state in adversarial settings.
method Formulated inverse unscented Kalman filter (I-UKF) and reproducing kernel Hilbert space-based UKF (RKHS-UKF).
result Proposed filters are conservative estimators with upper-bounded error covariance.
Perceptual Kalman filters maintain human-perceptual quality while processing data.
problem Maintaining human-perceptual quality in signal processing under temporal constraints.
method An optimal causal filtering approach under a perfect perceptual-quality constraint.
result Adding perceptual quality constraints introduces a dilemma that requires sacrificing MSE for temporal consistency.
New filters improve radar target inference in complex scenarios.
problem Improving radar target inference in highly non-linear system models.
method Developed inverse cubature Kalman filter (I-CKF), inverse quadrature Kalman filter (I-QKF), and inverse cubature-quadrature Kalman filter (I-CQKF) for non-linear systems.
result Numerical experiments show improved estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.
EnSF improves accuracy in tracking high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
problem Low accuracy in high-dimensional, nonlinear filtering problems.
method Score-based diffusion model, mini-batch Monte Carlo estimator.
result EnSF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in tracking high-dimensional systems.
Real-time ionospheric images created from limited data using parallel Kalman filters.
problem Monitoring ionospheric irregularities using limited spatio-temporal observations.
method Bayesian framework with parallel Kalman filters and connectivity information.
result Real-time ionospheric images with high spatio-temporal resolution can be produced.
A new method for state estimation on complex networks.
problem Reconstructing latent dynamics from multivariate time-series on topological cell complexes.
method Topology-aware state space framework derived from stochastic partial differential equations, with state evolution following heat-like topological diffusion.
result The proposed method successfully recovers latent states and topological structures in real-world networks.
New algorithm speeds up online mapping of unknown terrains.
problem Increasing computational demands of GP mapping as area expands.
method Recursive GP mapping using local basis functions in an information filter.
result Reduces overall computational complexity and speeds up mapping.
Improved model-based estimation through tempered Bayes filter.
problem Improving predictive accuracy in partially-observable stochastic systems.
method Developed tempered Bayes filter combining likelihood and full posterior tempering.
result Tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance over the Bayes filter baseline.
This article proposes and evaluates a technique to predict the level of interference in wireless networks. We design a recursive predictor that estimates future interference values by filtering measured interference at a given location. The predictor's parameterization is done offline by translating the autocorrelation…
CRUs model irregular time series with continuous hidden states.
problem Handling irregular time intervals in sequential data.
method Continuous Recurrent Units (CRUs) that integrate hidden states via a linear stochastic differential equation.
result CRUs outperform methods based on neural ordinary differential equations in irregular time series interpolation.
A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.
problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.
Improved Kalman filter for Stiefel manifold measurements.
problem Improving accuracy in measurements on Stiefel manifolds.
method Generalization of extended Kalman filter for Stiefel manifold-valued measurements.
result Significant improvement over raw measurements.
This paper contains the technical foundations from stochastic differential geometry for the construction of geometrically intrinsic nonlinear recursive filters. A diffusion X on a manifold N is run for a time interval T, with a random initial condition. There is a single observation consisting of a nonlinear function o…
Develops a new model to better predict corporate bond yields.
problem Persistent shifts in interest rates undermine single-regime models.
method Regime-switching generalized CIR model with two-state short-rate process and credit factors.
result The model improves joint curve fit and delivers interpretable probabilities.
HKF uses neural networks to adapt Kalman filters for dynamic channel tracking.
problem Tracking channels with varying dynamics and Doppler values.
method Combines Kalman filters with hypernetworks for dynamic adaptation.
result HKF achieves up to 2dB gain over Kalman filters at high Doppler values.
This paper uses Bayesian optimization to efficiently identify stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Efficiently identifying linear stochastic dynamical systems with unknown coefficients and noise variances.
method Adaptive Bayesian optimization with ensemble Gaussian processes (EGP) and Kalman filter recursion.
result BO-based estimator achieves RMSE below the Cramer-Rao bound, improving robustness and consistency.
State-space smoothing has found many applications in science and engineering. Under linear and Gaussian assumptions, smoothed estimates can be obtained using efficient recursions, for example Rauch-Tung-Striebel and Mayne-Fraser algorithms. Such schemes are equivalent to linear algebraic techniques that minimize a conv…
Paper analyzes ensemble Kalman updates for effective dimension and localization.
problem Why small ensemble sizes work well in inverse problems and data assimilation.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of ensemble Kalman updates, focusing on effective dimension and localization.
result Rigorously explains why a small ensemble size is sufficient when prior covariance has moderate effective dimension.
In this paper, we revisit the Kalman filter theory. After giving the intuition on a simplified financial markets example, we revisit the maths underlying it. We then show that Kalman filter can be presented in a very different fashion using graphical models. This enables us to establish the connection between Kalman fi…
Illustrates interleaved learning with Kalman Filter for linear least squares.
problem Improving machine learning algorithms through interleaved learning.
method Simple statistical and optimization framework based on Kalman Filter.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of interleaved learning.
Combines neural networks with splitting-up method for filtering equations.
problem Approximating the solution of filtering equations for signal processes.
method Combines splitting-up method with neural networks.
result Produces an approximation of the unnormalised conditional distribution.
Graph Kalman filters adapt classical filters to graph data.
problem Adapting classical Kalman filters to graph data.
method Generalizes Kalman filters to attributed graphs, learning state-transition and readout functions end-to-end.
result Adapted Kalman filters can predict graph outputs.
Paper introduces EnDKF for more accurate pose tracking.
problem Accurate pose tracking with directional uncertainty.
method EnDKF integrates unit-quaternion attitude representation for better directional uncertainty capture.
result Significant reduction in error compared to traditional methods.
Proposes a new method to enhance neural learning by maximizing information gain.
problem Improving neural learning by selecting key variables to maximize information gain.
method Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter to quantify uncertainty and maximize information gain.
result The proposed method enables the neural network to learn more effectively from stochastic systems.
The extended Kalman filter is perhaps the most standard tool to estimate in real time the state of a dynamical system from noisy measurements of some function of the system, with extensive practical applications (such as position tracking via GPS). While the plain Kalman filter for linear systems is well-understood, th…
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear m…
This paper proves long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
problem Ensuring long-term accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for complex dynamical systems.
method Established conditions for long-time accuracy of ensemble Kalman filters for chaotic and machine-learned dynamical systems.
result Ensemble Kalman filters maintain small estimation error over long time horizons for chaotic and machine-learned systems.
Transformers can approximate Kalman Filtering in linear systems with small error.
problem Approximating Kalman Filtering using Transformers for linear dynamical systems.
method Two-step reduction: 1) Softmax self-attention block approximates Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing, 2) This estimator approximates Kalman Filter.
result Constructs a Transformer that implements the Kalman Filter with small additive error, uniformly bounded in time.