A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint mod…
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48 results for “Joint forecasting”
Additive Covariance Matrix Models: Modelling Regional Electricity Net-Demand in Great Britainstat.AP
The paper forecasts joint electricity demand across 14 British regions using additive models.
problem Forecasting regional electricity demand with cross-regional dependencies.
method Modified Cholesky parametrisation for multivariate Gaussian model, gradient boosting for model selection.
result The proposed model outperforms non-Gaussian copula-based models in forecasting.
Develops a new framework for joint portfolio risk forecasting.
problem Joint portfolio risk forecasting, especially for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall.
method Semi-parametric multivariate framework with dynamic conditional correlation modeling.
result The proposed model outperforms existing approaches in risk forecasting.
FreST Loss decorrelates spatio-temporal dependencies in graph signals.
problem Complex spatio-temporal dependencies in graph-structured signals are not well captured by standard forecasting models.
method FreST Loss extends supervision to the joint spatio-temporal spectrum using Joint Fourier Transform (JFT).
result FreST Loss reduces estimation bias and improves forecasting accuracy on real-world datasets.
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.
problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.
A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Joint Forecastingstat.ML
Bayesian LSTM model improves VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
problem Joint forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES).
method Hybrid model combining LSTM for time series dynamics and Asymmetric Laplace quasi-likelihood for joint likelihood.
result The LSTM-AL model outperforms existing models in VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. Despite the many advantages of joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification and computational difficulties when applied to …
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
Forecasting VaR and ES using a joint quantile regression and implications in portfolio allocationq-fin.RM
Paper proposes a joint quantile regression for VaR and ES forecasting.
problem Forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple assets simultaneously.
method Multivariate quantile regression framework with time-varying process for VaR and ES.
result The proposed method outperforms other models in risk measure forecasts.
Improved forecasting of financial risk using Diffusion-Copula framework.
problem Capturing complex, asymmetric dependence structures in financial markets.
method Explicitly decouples marginal distribution learning from dependence structure using Mixture Density Networks and Classification-Diffusion Copula.
result Superior performance in forecasting systemic extremes of marginal and joint events.
New framework forecasts ES using weighted quantiles.
problem Forecasting Expected Shortfall (ES) in financial markets.
method Two-step procedure: VaR estimation through quantile regressions, ES computation as weighted average.
result Proposed models outperform other methods in stock market indices forecasting.
LaT-PFN model predicts time series with zero-shot capability.
problem Zero-shot time series forecasting.
method In-context latent space learning with JEPA and PFN integration.
result Superior zero-shot predictions compared to baselines.
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little intuitive or empirical guidance is currently available, which renders the choice…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo m…
Linking SV and PDV models for better volatility forecasts.
problem Improving volatility forecasting models.
method Assumed density filtering to map SV models to PDV representations, introducing calibration procedure.
result Improves in-sample fit and robust out-of-sample forecasts.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
Learning Quantile Functions without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecastingcs.LG
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Modelling uncertainty in financial tail risk: a forecast combination and weighted quantile approachq-fin.RM
A new method forecasts financial tail risks by combining and weighting quantiles.
problem Reducing uncertainty in financial tail risk forecasting.
method Two-step procedure: quantile combination followed by ES computation.
result The proposed framework outperforms individual models and simple approaches.
The paper proposes a model to forecast traffic motion from sensor data.
problem Accurately predicting traffic motion for safe vehicle maneuvers.
method Implicit latent variable model using interaction graphs and graph neural networks.
result Achieves state-of-the-art motion forecasting and interaction understanding.
Probabilistic Forecasting and Simulation of Electricity Markets via Online Dictionary Learningstat.AP
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk measure for the international banking regulation. We utilize joint loss functions fo…
Tail risk forecasting with semi-parametric regression models by incorporating overnight informationq-fin.RM
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
problem Improving tail risk forecasting in financial markets.
method Proposes RES-CAViaR-oc models combining overnight return and realized volatility, using Bayesian estimation.
result Realized volatility and overnight return significantly improve tail risk forecasting.
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. While there are many advantages to joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification, and computational difficulties when applie…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are based on a joint regression for the Value at Risk and the ES, which allows for dif…
REGAIN learns optimal auxiliary directions for forecast reconciliation.
problem Forecast reconciliation from fixed systems; identifying useful auxiliary directions.
method REGAIN learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts induced series, and selects directions by loss reduction.
result Gain-selected auxiliary directions improve forecast quality, especially for residual uncertainty.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
Dynamic models improve CoVaR forecasts for financial system risks.
problem Improving forecasts of systemic risk measures like CoVaR.
method Two-step M-estimator using bivariate scoring functions for VaR and CoVaR.
result CoCAViaR models generate superior CoVaR predictions.
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
TACTiS models time series uncertainty with transformer attention.
problem Estimating predictive uncertainty in high-dimensional multivariate time series.
method Transformer-Attentional Copulas using attention-based decoder.
result TACTiS produces state-of-the-art predictions on real-world datasets.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Clinical forecasting based on electronic medical records (EMR) can uncover the temporal correlations between patients' conditions and outcomes from sequences of longitudinal clinical measurements. In this work, we propose an intervention-augmented deep state space generative model to capture the interactions among clin…
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
Study combines VaR and ES forecasts using MCS to improve risk predictions.
problem Combining VaR and ES forecasts to improve risk predictions under uncertainty.
method Employed Model Confidence Set (MCS) methodology to identify best-performing models and combine their forecasts.
result Proposed combined predictors are robust and pass standard backtests.
ProFITi model forecasts irregular time series with missing values using conditional flows.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method ProFITi model uses conditional normalizing flows and invertible layers to learn joint distributions conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times.
result ProFITi model provides 4 times higher likelihood than the previous best model.
US Yield curve has recently collapsed to its most flattened level since subprime crisis and is close to the inversion. This fact has gathered attention of investors around the world and revived the discussion of proper modeling and forecasting yield curve, since changes in interest rate structure are believed to repres…
Multiple split approach -- multidimensional probabilistic forecasting of electricity marketsq-fin.RM
A method for multidimensional probabilistic electricity market forecasting is proposed.
problem Uncertainty in simultaneous multivariate predictions of electricity markets.
method Repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous multivariate predictions.
result The method provides highly accurate predictions and gains are largest when considering functions of variables.
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
New neural network model improves long-term financial forecasts.
problem Challenges in forecasting financial time series with limited data.
method Spatiotemporal adaptive neural network using dynamic factor graph and attention-based mechanism.
result Significantly outperforms typical models in forecasting 21-day price trajectories.
We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is expanded from a set of fixed quantiles to the whole Quantile Function by a univar…
Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is widely used in various domains, such as meteorology and traffic. Due to limitations on data collection, transmission, and storage, real-world MTS data usually contains missing values, making it infeasible to apply existing MTS forecasting models such as linear regression an…
Two new models forecast multiple subpopulations' mortality, outperforming existing methods.
problem Modeling mortality patterns and trajectories in related populations.
method Adapted multivariate functional principal component analysis techniques.
result The second proposed model outperforms existing methods in forecast accuracy.
DAF uses attention sharing to adapt forecasts from abundant to scarce data.
problem Limited data for time series forecasting.
method Attention-based shared module and domain discriminator for domain adaptation.
result DAF outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various domains.
This research improves forecasting and testing of risk contributions using Expected Shortfall.
problem Improving risk allocation and testing methods for regulatory standards.
method Developed a comprehensive framework for backtesting and forecasting Expected Shortfall contributions.
result Proposed a novel semiparametric model for forecasting dynamic Expected Shortfall contributions.
The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.
problem The study investigates how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence impact equity volatility forecasting.
method The paper combines semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions.
result Persistence measures improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts, particularly during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications.
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the pair quantile and ES, which allows for M- and Z-estimation of the joint regression …