The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
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48 results for “Itô processes”
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and a…
New model uses variance-Hawkes process to fit energy market returns.
problem Modeling clustering effects in financial markets.
method Defining and fitting a variance-Hawkes process to energy market returns.
result Demonstrated that variance-Hawkes process can capture clustering effects.
New sparse Gaussian process method tackles unconstrained regression problems.
problem Dealing with physical systems that satisfy inequality constraints.
method Extends constrained Gaussian process by redefining hat basis functions.
result Reduces computational complexity from to .
Gaussian processes model geospatial trajectories with uncertainty.
problem Interpolating and predicting complex spatiotemporal data.
method Gaussian process models trajectories as multidimensional Gaussian distributions.
result Gaussian processes provide a flexible and probabilistic way to interpolate geospatial data.
CONDA-PM framework helps analyze concept drift in business processes.
problem Analyzing changes in business processes over time.
method Systematic Literature Review and framework development.
result Highlights areas needing research to complement existing efforts.
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
In this paper we discuss a credit risk model with a pure jump Lévy process for the asset value and an unobservable random barrier. The default time is the first time when the asset value falls below the barrier. Using the indistinguishability of the intensity process and the likelihood process, we prove the existence o…
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. Th…
A new method combines Gaussian Processes to optimize under uncertainty.
problem Bayesian Optimization's weakness in fitting Gaussian Processes.
method Wasserstein Barycenter Gaussian Process (WBGP) approach.
result WBGP-BO converges to the optimum, improving on vanilla BO.
This paper shows how to combine optimal tests into log-optimal processes.
problem How to combine optimal sequential tests into log-optimal processes.
method Using a new class of WAIT e-processes, the paper aggregates asymptotically optimal sequential tests into asymptotically log-optimal processes.
result It is possible to aggregate asymptotically optimal sequential tests into asymptotically log-optimal e-processes.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with respect to boundary conditions on a multidimensional constraint variable, whose evo…
Automated process discovery is a class of process mining methods that allow analysts to extract business process models from event logs. Traditional process discovery methods extract process models from a snapshot of an event log stored in its entirety. In some scenarios, however, events keep coming with a high arrival…
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values …
Deep Neyman-Scott Processesstat.ML
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.
The sequence of moments of a vector-valued random variable can characterize its law. We study the analogous problem for path-valued random variables, that is stochastic processes, by using so-called robust signature moments. This allows us to derive a metric of maximum mean discrepancy type for laws of stochastic proce…
A new normalizing flow models continuous stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Efficient modeling of continuous stochastic processes.
method Dynamic normalizing flows driven by Wiener process.
result Rich time series model with efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals.
Drawdown (resp. drawup) of a stochastic process, also referred as the reflected process at its supremum (resp. infimum), has wide applications in many areas including financial risk management, actuarial mathematics and statistics. In this paper, for general time-homogeneous Markov processes, we study the joint law of …
A wealth-process set is abstractly defined to consist of nonnegative càdlàg processes containing a strictly positive semimartingale and satisfying an intuitive re-balancing property. Under the condition of absence of arbitrage of the first kind, it is established that all wealth processes are semimartingales and that t…
Process Mining consists of techniques where logs created by operative systems are transformed into process models. In process mining tools it is often desired to be able to classify ongoing process instances, e.g., to predict how long the process will still require to complete, or to classify process instances to diffe…
This work presents MeKDDaM-SAGA, computer-aided automation software for implementing a novel knowledge discovery and data mining process model that was designed for performing justifiable, traceable and reproducible metabolomics data analysis. The process model focuses on achieving metabolomics analytical objectives an…
On strong binomial approximation for stochastic processes and applications for financial modellingq-fin.CP
This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary increments at sampling points. …
This paper introduces a new process for portfolio rebalancing that is more equitable than existing methods.
problem Improving portfolio rebalancing processes in finance to be more equitable.
method Introduces a new market-invariant process for portfolio rebalancing, proving its superiority over existing methods.
result The market-invariant process is more equitable than the banker and linear processes, as demonstrated by empirical results.
Paper introduces a new model for cyber insurance pricing.
problem Inaccurate pricing of cyber insurance due to multiple, contagious losses.
method Developed a bivariate compound dynamic contagion process.
result Analytical expressions for the compound process and its moments.
Optimizes insurance processing capacity to minimize costs.
problem Processing delays and backlogs in insurance claims.
method Optimal capacity selection to minimize delay-adjusted and fixed costs.
result Minimizes claims costs by balancing processing capacity and delays.
A stochastic model helps maintain insufficiently funded pension funds.
problem Maintaining pension funds that are underfunded and require external financing.
method A time-homogeneous diffusion process with a barrier is used to model the unrestricted reserves value, and a renewal-reward process models the financing effort.
result Expected values and cost evaluations of maintenance are derived, and the approach is applied to a generalized Brownian motion process.
Hida-Matérn Kernelstat.ML
New Hida-Matérn kernels enable flexible process priors and efficient GP inference.
problem Flexible modeling of stationary processes with oscillatory components.
method Introducing a new class of covariance functions (Hida-Matérn kernels) and their state space representations.
result Efficient Gaussian Process inference and improved numerical stability.
This report is concerned with the Mondrian process and its applications in machine learning. The Mondrian process is a guillotine-partition-valued stochastic process that possesses an elegant self-consistency property. The first part of the report uses simple concepts from applied probability to define the Mondrian pro…
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capt…
Meta-learn sparse Gaussian process inference for faster predictions.
problem Cubic computational cost of exact Gaussian process inference for many observations.
method Meta-learn sparse Gaussian process inference.
result Rapid prediction on new tasks with sparse Gaussian processes.
New algorithm reduces bias in trained models, near-optimal performance proven.
problem Reduction of bias in trained machine learning models.
method Scalable post-processing algorithm for debiasing trained models, including deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Proven to be near-optimal by bounding its excess Bayes risk.
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
Neural Processes combine the strengths of neural networks and Gaussian processes to achieve both flexible learning and fast prediction in stochastic processes. However, a large class of problems comprises underlying temporal dependency structures in a sequence of stochastic processes that Neural Processes (NP) do not e…
Deep learning the Hurst parameter of linear fractional processes and assessing its reliabilitystat.ML
Deep learning improves Hurst parameter estimation for fractional processes.
problem Estimating the Hurst parameter in fractional stochastic processes.
method Training Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks on extensive datasets of fBm, fOU, and lfsm processes.
result LSTM outperforms traditional methods in fBm and fOU processes but has limited accuracy on lfsm.
New model prices options with complex market data structures.
problem Complex market data structures in option pricing.
method Compound CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model.
result Model can replicate volatility smile in financial markets.
Proposes flexible spatial models for better understanding spatial heterogeneity.
problem Poor characterisation of spatial heterogeneity in conventional models.
method Spatial Bayesian Neural Networks (SBNNs) incorporating a spatial embedding layer and possibly spatially-varying parameters.
result SBNNs better match the finite-dimensional distribution of target spatial processes.
Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such a Monte Carlo scheme which converges to the exact value. We manage to keep the s…
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
Algorithm learns graph ARMA processes for missing signal estimation.
problem Missing signal estimation in time-varying graph signals.
method Learning joint time-vertex power spectral density through convex relaxations.
result High accuracy in time-vertex signal estimation.
The weak variance-alpha-gamma process is a multivariate Lévy process constructed by weakly subordinating Brownian motion, possibly with correlated components with an alpha-gamma subordinator. It generalises the variance-alpha-gamma process of Semeraro constructed by traditional subordination. We compare three calibrati…
Paper proposes a new method for learning business process representations.
problem Challenges in capturing all useful information in business process data.
method Combines Gramian Angular Fields and Convolutional Neural Networks for representation learning.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the approach through visualization and multiple process prediction tasks.
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
Develops a test for conditional local independence of counting processes.
problem Testing the hypothesis of conditional local independence among continuous time stochastic processes.
method Introduces a new functional parameter, the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), and proposes a test called (X)-LCT using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting.
result The (X)-LCT test can be controlled uniformly with modest rates, and it works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.
This work tackles fitting Hawkes processes to interval-censored data.
problem Fitting Hawkes processes to aggregated event counts without exact times.
method Developed MBPP, IC-LL, exogenous functions, and approximation methods.
result Connected Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) to MBPP.
The paper models financial data with multivariate jump processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of financial data with jumps.
method Defined multivariate point processes driven by stochastic jumps, providing stability conditions.
result Nonlinear models fit financial data best, showing jumps cluster during crises.
In this paper, we provide a solution to two problems which have been open in default time modeling in credit risk. We first show that if is an arbitrary random (default) time such that its Azéma's supermartingale $Z_t^τ=¶(τ>t|\F_t)$ is continuous, then avoids stopping times. We then disprove a conjecture about …
Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in estimating OU process parameters.
problem Parameter estimation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is challenging.
method Used a multi-layer perceptron to estimate OU process parameters compared to traditional methods like Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Deep learning method outperforms traditional methods in parameter estimation of the OU process.
Neural model improves option pricing by calibrating additive process term structure.
problem Calibrating additive process models for option pricing with time-dependent parameters.
method Proposes neural term structure model using feedforward neural networks to represent term structure.
result Improves option pricing accuracy with neural term structure model.