New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
problem Stability condition for Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
method Analysis of Quadratic Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
result Quadratic Hawkes processes are always stationary with infinite mean intensity when total endogeneity ratio exceeds unity.
The paper extends intensity models for limit order books using marked point processes.
problem Modeling intensity ratios in limit order books with state dependency and clustering.
method Developed a new model combining three multiplicative components for marked point processes.
result The new model outperforms other intensity-based methods in predicting market order signs and aggressiveness.
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from …
Intangible investment becomes a strong predictor of stock returns over time.
problem Understanding the role of intangible investment in stock returns over different periods.
method Comparing intangible investment's predictive power over two distinct periods (1963-1992 and 1993-2022) using orthogonal factors.
result Intangible investment's predictive power for stock returns has significantly increased over time, becoming a main predictor for recent periods.
Framework for continuous-time network data representation learning.
problem Learning reliable representations of dynamic network interactions.
method Three-stage process: intensity estimation, projection learning, evolving node representation construction.
result Trajectories satisfy structural and temporal coherence, providing robust inference.
The position of the EWS (economy-wide substitution)-ratio vector determines the Rybczynski sign pattern, which expresses the factor endowment--commodity output relationships, and the Stolper-Samuelson sign pattern, which expresses the commodity price--factor price relationships in a three-factor two-good general equili…
Study reduces emissions in portfolios with error-prone emissions data.
problem Portfolio optimization with firm-level emissions intensities measured inaccurately.
method Introduced a scope-specific penalty operator to rescale asset payoffs based on revenue-normalized emissions intensity.
result Reduces average Scope~1 emissions intensity by roughly 92% while maintaining similar Sharpe ratios.
We study hedging and pricing of unattainable contingent claims in a non-Markovian regime-switching financial model. Our financial market consists of a bank account and a risky asset whose dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion and a multivariate counting process with stochastic intensities. The interest rate, drift, …
Compact DNNs increase memory footprint and reduce energy efficiency.
problem Designing compact deep neural networks (DNNs) for improved energy efficiency.
method Evaluation of recently proposed compact DNNs on a Tesla P100 GPU.
result Higher number of activations and memory footprint lead to reduced energy efficiency.
AGNES accelerates gradient descent with noisy gradients.
problem Minimizing smooth convex and strongly convex functions with noisy gradients.
method Generalization of Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent algorithm for noisy conditions.
result AGNES achieves acceleration for noisy gradients with a constant of proportionality up to 1.
The study visualizes Spanish fish and meat processing companies using financial, environmental, and social ratios.
problem Mapping financial, environmental, and social performance of Spanish processing companies.
method Used compositional data and principal-component analysis biplot for statistical analysis.
result Identified clusters of companies with similar financial, environmental, and social performance.
Paper proposes a method to select base classes for few-shot learning.
problem How to select base classes for few-shot learning models.
method Formulated as a submodular optimization problem over Similarity Ratio.
result Our method effectively selects better base datasets for few-shot learning.
Deep Neural Network (DNN) is powerful but computationally expensive and memory intensive, thus impeding its practical usage on resource-constrained front-end devices. DNN pruning is an approach for deep model compression, which aims at eliminating some parameters with tolerable performance degradation. In this paper, w…
We investigate activities that have different periods of duration. We define the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in a repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability di…
We extend the Vasiček loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and analyze its properties. We find that the impact of liability risk is ambiguous and …
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
problem Encouraging green technology innovation in Chinese companies.
method Quasi-experimental research using panel data of Chinese listed companies, double difference model.
result Margin trading and short selling increase green tech innovation significantly.
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
problem Predicting corporate default risk in the U.S. market.
method Bayesian approach with Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC) algorithm.
result Volatility and mean reversion of hidden factor significantly impact default intensities.
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
This paper examines how investors mislearn factor risk premia under structural breaks in a misspecified Bayesian framework.
problem Investors' mislearning of factor risk premia under structural breaks in asset pricing models.
method Proposes a minimal Bayesian framework to study how investors learn under a misspecified model that underestimates structural breaks.
result Elevated mislearning is associated with stronger long-horizon returns and Sharpe ratios, consistent with an equilibrium premium for acute model uncertainty.
Distributed-OMP recovers sparse vectors with low communication costs.
problem High-dimensional sparse linear regression with limited computation and communication.
method Distributed orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) scheme.
result Support of the regression vector can be recovered with linear communication per machine and logarithmic in dimension.
Bayesian priors improve neural network performance on weak signals.
problem Challenges in encoding domain knowledge for weak signals in neural networks.
method Proposed a new joint prior over local scale parameters for feature sparsity and signal-to-noise ratio, optimized with Stein gradient.
result Improved prediction accuracy on various datasets, including genetics applications with weak and sparse signals.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Intractable integral in likelihood of Gaussian Cox process.
method Joint modeling of intensity and cumulative intensity as transformed Gaussian process; exact MCMC sampler.
result Exact posterior inference without approximations.
The risk-neutral option pricing method under GARCH intensity model is examined. The GARCH intensity model incorporates the characteristics of financial return series such as volatility clustering, leverage effect and conditional asymmetry. The GARCH intensity option pricing model has flexibility in changing the volatil…
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
Investment managers face harder choices in green stocks due to reduced performance variability.
problem Difficulty in deploying talent in green stocks due to reduced performance variability.
method Analysis of S&P 500 firms' greenhouse gas emission levels and peer performance ratios.
result Performance variability has decreased in green stocks, making it harder for managers to choose.
This paper presents a new approach for filter design based on stochastic distances and tests between distributions. A window is defined around each pixel, samples are compared and only those which pass a goodness-of-fit test are used to compute the filtered value. The technique is applied to intensity Synthetic Apertur…
Neural marked point processes show saturation with complexity, leading to new simple architectures.
problem Performance saturation in neural marked point processes with complex architectures.
method Proposed GCHP with graph convolutional layers and likelihood ratio loss.
result GCHP reduces training time and improves model performance.
We define an activity dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series Xt. The branching ratio bx is defined as bx=E[ξx/x]. The random variable ξx is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to x, so ξx={Xt+1∣Xt=x}. If bx>1, the process is …
A multiple classifiers fusion localization technique using received signal strengths (RSSs) of visible light is proposed, in which the proposed system transmits different intensity modulated sinusoidal signals by LEDs and the signals received by a Photo Diode (PD) placed at various grid points. First, we obtain some {\…
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Estimating intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
method Kernel method-based intensity estimator using least squares loss.
result K2IE achieves comparable predictive performance with improved efficiency. Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
problem Financial vulnerability of payday loan users.
method Two-state hidden Markov model (HMM) using Open Banking data.
result 36.4% of borrowers experience high-intensity exposure for 12 weeks or more.
RG-TTA adapts neural forecasters to streaming time series shifts by modulating adaptation intensity.
problem Adapting neural forecasters to distribution shifts in streaming time series data.
method RG-TTA uses a meta-controller that continuously modulates adaptation intensity based on distributional similarity.
result RG-TTA achieves the lowest MSE in 156 of 224 seed-averaged experiments, reducing MSE by 5.7% vs TTA.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
Unified market making controls risk, arbitrage, and volatility surfaces.
problem Market making risk, arbitrage, and volatility surface consistency.
method Constrained RL and stochastic control for risk-sensitive execution and hedging.
result Agent achieves positive P&L with zero calendar and butterfly violations.
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
Neural networks learn distance-based representations, not just intensity.
problem Understanding how neural networks interpret and learn from internal activations.
method Manipulated ReLU and Absolute Value activations to observe sensitivity to distance and intensity perturbations.
result Neural networks are highly sensitive to small distance-based perturbations, challenging the intensity-based interpretation.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling non-homogeneous Poisson process intensity functions on the sphere.
method Flexible bijective map using normalizing flows to transform intensity functions.
result Normalizing flows provide a flexible way to model intensity functions on spheres.
Improved portfolio optimization method reduces risk and improves performance.
problem Minimizing risk in large portfolios with limited data.
method Combines Tikhonov regularization and direct shrinkage of portfolio weights.
result Significantly reduces out-of-sample variance and Sharpe ratio compared to existing methods.
The present paper introduces a jump-diffusion extension of the classical diffusion default intensity model by means of subordination in the sense of Bochner. We start from the bi-variate process (X,D) of a diffusion state variable X driving default intensity and a default indicator process D and time change it wi…
Developing a semi-analytical approximation for general default intensity models
problem Accurate and efficient pricing of default intensity models
method Path-integral formalism
result Accurate results for the Black-Karasinski model
Deep-learning improves 6x6-mm OCTA angiograms by reducing noise and artifacts.
problem Reduced scan quality in 6x6-mm OCTA angiograms due to undersampling.
method Deep-learning-based high-resolution angiogram reconstruction network (HARNet) trained on 3x3-mm and 6x6-mm angiogram data.
result Reconstructed 6x6-mm angiograms have lower noise and better vascular connectivity.
New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.
problem Parameterizing conditional joint PDF for MTPP.
method IFIB framework, modeling p∗(m,t) directly. result Superior experimental results on real and synthetic data.
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Ha…
Near-future large galaxy surveys will encounter blended galaxy images at a fraction of up to 50% in the densest regions of the universe. Current deblending techniques may segment the foreground galaxy while leaving missing pixel intensities in the background galaxy flux. The problem is compounded by the diffuse nature …