Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
problem Accurately predicting individual claim reserves in insurance contracts.
method Multinomial logistic regression to model claim activation and development.
result The model generates accurate predictions of total and per coverage reserves.
Study tackles imbalanced data in car insurance claims prediction.
problem Predicting rare events (claims) in car insurance with imbalanced data.
method Various machine learning techniques (logistic-regression, decision tree, random forest, xgBoost, feed-forward network) applied to imbalanced dataset.
result Comparison of machine learning algorithms' performance in claim occurrence prediction.
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
problem Assessing future weather-induced home insurance claims and losses for disaster preparedness.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression for forecasting future claim dynamics.
result Illustrates SVM approach in forecasting weather-induced home insurance claims in a Canadian city.
New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.
problem Incomplete claim data due to reporting and settlement delays.
method Develops an occurrence and development model to estimate both claims and premiums.
result Effective resolution of pricing and reserving inconsistencies.
Model detects insurance fraud using social network analysis.
problem Fraudulent insurance claims by exaggeration or intentional damage.
method Network construction linking claims and parties, BiRank algorithm for fraud score computation, feature extraction from network and claims, supervised model building.
result Network features improve fraud detection performance.
Study compares ruin probabilities under independence vs. dependence assumptions.
problem Underestimation of ruin probability when claims are dependent.
method Copulas for claim dependence analysis, sensitivity analysis.
result Dependent claims lead to underestimation of ruin probability.
Optimizes insurance processing capacity to minimize costs.
problem Processing delays and backlogs in insurance claims.
method Optimal capacity selection to minimize delay-adjusted and fixed costs.
result Minimizes claims costs by balancing processing capacity and delays.
Bayesian CART models improve insurance claims frequency prediction and interpretation.
problem Improving accuracy and interpretability in insurance pricing models.
method Introducing Bayesian CART models for claims frequency, implementing MCMC algorithm for posterior tree exploration, and using DIC for model selection.
result Bayesian CART models can better classify policy-holders into risk groups.
This study compares the largest claims from two insurance portfolios using stochastic orderings.
problem Comparing the largest claims from two heterogeneous insurance portfolios.
method Used various stochastic orderings and established sufficient conditions associated with model parameters.
result Established sufficient conditions for comparing the largest claims from two insurance portfolios.
The article proposes a method to make valid insurance claim predictions without relying on specific models.
problem Prediction of insurance claims using statistical models can be unreliable due to model misspecification, selection effects, and lack of finite-sample validity.
method The article employs conformal prediction, a machine learning strategy that is model-free and tuning-parameter-free, ensuring finite-sample validity.
result The proposed method guarantees valid predictions at a pre-assigned coverage probability level and performs well in insurance applications, including meeting Solvency II requirements.
It is illustrated a methodology to compute the pure premium for the automobile insurance (claim frequency and severity) using generalized linear models. It is obtained the pure premium for the partial damage loss cover (PPD) using a set of automobile insurance policies with an exposition of a year. It is found that the…
This paper suggests claim history will be deprecated in future auto insurance rates.
problem The role of historical claim records in auto insurance rates.
method Proposes a new risk variable elimination method and real-time road risk model design.
result Claim history will be considered a 'noise' factor and deprecated in Pay-How-You-Drive models.
Detects organized fraudsters in insurance claims with high precision.
problem Fraudulent insurance claims lead to heavy financial losses.
method Developed a novel data-driven procedure using graph learning algorithms.
result Achieves more than 80% precision in fraud detection.
Study classifies liability insurance policies using machine learning.
problem Classifying liability insurance policies with or without claims.
method Used machine learning models like nearest neighbour and logistic regression on Actuarial Challenge dataset.
result Models accurately classified policies into claims and non-claims groups.
A new method for modeling insurance claim frequencies using random proportions.
problem Inaccurate fitting of classical distributions to insurance claim frequency data.
method Modeling claim frequencies using random proportions of insurance contracts and applying goodness-of-fit tests.
result A new statistical approach for better modeling insurance claim frequencies.
The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.
problem Analyzing the impact of bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement on insurance companies' financial stability.
method Examined a discrete-time risk model with time-varying premiums, evaluating two types of claims and settlement delays.
result Delayed settlement of by-claims leads to lower ruin probabilities under specific assumptions.
The paper analyzes systemic risk in an insurance model with multiple business lines and heterogeneous claims.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in a multi-dimensional insurance model with heterogeneous claims.
method A multi-dimensional Lévy process-based renewal risk model with pairwise asymptotic independence (PAI).
result Asymptotic formulas for tail probabilities and systemic risk measures are derived.
The paper proposes an original methodology for constructing quantitative statistical models based on multidimensional distribution functions constructed on the basis of the insurance companies' data on inshurance policies (including policies with deductible) and claims incurred. Real data of some Russian insurance comp…
New models for insurance claims accounting for delays.
problem Delayed claims processing affects real-time policy development.
method Introducing transaction time models to describe multi-state life insurance.
result Explicit expressions for transaction time reserves derived.
EBM improves car insurance claim severity and frequency prediction while maintaining interpretability.
problem Balancing predictive accuracy and interpretability in insurance claim modeling.
method Combines GAM and cyclic gradient boosting, providing interpretable predictions.
result EBM outperforms benchmark models in claim severity and frequency prediction.
Enhanced Tweedie model for insurance claims using CatBoost.
problem Accurately modeling aggregate claims with zero-inflated data.
method Refined Tweedie model with boosting methods in CatBoost.
result Marked improvement in model performance for insurance analytics.
Two machine learning models detect anomalies in ER claims, saving up to 40% in improper payments.
problem Improper health insurance payments from fraud and upcoding.
method Two machine learning models: an upcoding model based on severity code distributions and a random forest model for claim sorting.
result Random forest model saved 12% to 40% in improper payments compared to a baseline approach.
New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.
problem Disability insurance claims are affected by long delays and adjudication processes.
method Proposes a new individual reserving model for real-time claim evolution.
result Shows that new reserves can be calculated as modifications of classic reserves.
Reinforcement learning improves insurance claims reserving by learning from all claim trajectories.
problem Traditional reserving models learn only from settled claims, missing valuable data from ongoing claims.
method Formulated as a Markov decision process, uses reinforcement learning to update OCL estimates sequentially.
result Soft Actor-Critic implementation achieves competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate performance.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.
Enhances insurance loss models using InsurTech data and machine learning.
problem Traditional insurance loss models lack predictive accuracy due to limited data sources.
method Combining proprietary claims data with InsurTech data and applying machine learning techniques.
result Improved predictive accuracy of the loss model through machine learning.
Improved disability insurance model with collective health claims.
problem Enhance disability insurance model with collective health claims.
method Expand classic semi-Markov model with collective health claims, solve many-body problem using mean-field approach.
result Mean-field approach simplifies complex model into a transparent pricing method.
Paper defines AI-specific loss reconstruction problem and introduces CER framework.
problem Reconstructing AI-generated losses, especially in agentic systems.
method CER framework: C (control boundary), E (evidence reconstruction), R (insurance response).
result Defines AI-specific reconstruction problem and operationalizes it.
Paper proposes optimal investment and reinsurance strategies considering financial and insurance risks dependence.
problem Optimal investment and reinsurance strategies under dependent financial and insurance risks.
method Stochastic control approach to maximize expected exponential utility of terminal wealth.
result Minimal dependence between financial and insurance risks significantly impacts investment and reinsurance strategies.
Study optimal dividend strategies for insurers with natural catastrophe claims.
problem Maximizing dividends for a catastrophe insurer over its lifetime.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problem, viscosity solutions, numerical approximation.
result Optimal dividend strategies identified for natural catastrophe insurers.
Fraud causes substantial costs and losses for companies and clients in the finance and insurance industries. Examples are fraudulent credit card transactions or fraudulent claims. It has been estimated that roughly 10 percent of the insurance industry's incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses each year stem from…
InfDetect detects e-commerce insurance fraud using graph analysis.
problem Detecting fraudulent claims in e-commerce insurance with multiple parties involved.
method Developed a large-scale fraud detection system InfDetect using graph-based approaches.
result InfDetect successfully detected thousands of fraudulent claims and saved money daily.
Paper studies pricing and hedging of nonreplicable insurance contracts using benchmark-neutral approach.
problem Pricing and hedging of long-term insurance contracts like variable annuities.
method Benchmark-neutral pricing framework using stock growth optimal portfolio as numéraire.
result Prices can be significantly lower than risk-neutral ones, offering attractive long-term risk-management.
A new method for predicting insurance claims with statistical guarantees.
problem Creating accurate prediction intervals for insurance claims.
method Model-agnostic framework using split conformal prediction for frequency-severity modeling.
result Shows effectiveness on simulated and real datasets using various models.
We study the application of dynamic pricing to insurance. We view this as an online revenue management problem where the insurance company looks to set prices to optimize the long-run revenue from selling a new insurance product. We develop two pricing models: an adaptive Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and an adaptive …
Optimizes insurance pricing to minimize ruin probability under various claim dependencies.
problem Determining optimal insurance premiums in the presence of dependencies between claim occurrences.
method Analyzes both independent and dependent claim processes, considering single and multiple risks.
result Optimal insurance premiums depend on initial reserve and claim dependencies.
Optimal dividends for insurers with climate tipping point consideration.
problem Natural catastrophe claims and climate tipping point impact insurance profits.
method Two-dimensional stochastic control problems with Erlang distribution for tipping point timing, numerical approximation.
result Non-stationary climate tipping point can benefit shareholders by optimizing dividends.
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. Insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequ…
Study optimal reinsurance pricing under model uncertainty for multiple insurers.
problem Optimal reinsurance pricing in the presence of multiple sources of model uncertainty.
method Solves a continuous-time Stackelberg game for general reinsurance contracts, considering entropy penalties and ambiguity in insurers' models.
result Reinsurer prices under a distortion of the barycentre of insurers' models, maximizing expected wealth with an entropy penalty.
Study optimal dividend and capital injection in insurance portfolios with self-exciting claim arrivals.
problem Optimal dividend and capital injection in insurance portfolios with Hawkes process claim arrivals.
method Analytical properties, explicit threshold, HJB variational inequality, finite-difference scheme, policy-gradient, actor-critic methods.
result Learned strategies closely match the PDE benchmark and remain stable across initial conditions.
SynthETIC simulates insurance claims with customizable features.
problem Lack of synthetic data for insurance claim analysis.
method Develops a new simulator for individual insurance claims with customizable features.
result SynthETIC fills a gap in actuarial toolkit for synthetic data.
Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these claims are non-fraudulent, fraud detection is core for insurance companies. The ultimate goal is a predictive model to single out the fraudulent claims and pay out the non-fraudulent ones immediately. Modern machine learning methods are we…
CANN models improve insurance claim count predictions using telematics data.
problem Improving insurance claim count predictions with telematics data.
method Combining classical actuarial models with neural networks for telematics data.
result CANN models outperform traditional models in predicting insurance claims.
Synthetic telematics dataset created from insurance claims data.
problem Creating a reliable synthetic dataset for usage-based insurance models.
method Three-stage process using machine learning: binary classification, regression, and synthetic oversampling.
result Synthetic dataset remarkably similar to real data in risk assessment models.
New model captures insurance risk dependencies efficiently.
problem Dependence modeling in sparse time series of insurance claims.
method Comb-Bernoulli model bridging Lévy copulas and zero-mixed models.
result Model enables tractable simulation, likelihood evaluation, and parameter estimation.
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
problem Assessing earthquake insurance risk using spatio-temporal point process models.
method Extended Voronoi residuals and created simulation-based approach.
result Proposed formula for country-wide minimum capital test.
Study predicts doubling of U.S. maize insurance claims due to climate change.
problem Climate change increases U.S. maize loss probability, impacting insurance claims.
method Neural Network Monte Carlo simulations to predict crop loss metrics.
result Doubling of annual probability of maize Yield Protection insurance claims by mid-century.
The article derives a formula for predicting claims uncertainty using the GCC method.
problem Claims reserving uncertainty in non-life insurance modeling.
method Generalized Cape Cod (GCC) method, derived an analytical formula for MSEP.
result Derives an analytical formula for the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of the GCC method.