arXiv research

Network analysis detects insider trading by flagging coordinated trades.

Before a person can be prosecuted and convicted for insider trading, he must first execute the overt act of trading. If no sale of security is consummated, no crime is also consummated. However, through a complex and insidious combination of various financial instruments, one can capture the same amount of gains from i…

Insider trading is one of the numerous white collar crimes that can contribute to the instability of the economy. Traditionally, the detection of illegal insider trades has been a human-driven process. In this paper, we collect the insider tradings made available by the US Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) thro…

In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model in the style of Kyle (1985)'s inside trading model, by assuming that there are at least two insiders in the market with long-lived private information, under the requirement that each insider publicly discloses his stock trades after the fact. Based on this model, …

Insiders camouflage trading to balance wealth and stealth, avoiding legal penalties.

Insider trading is reduced when penalized, affecting expected penalties in a non-monotone way.

Continuous-time model shows insider trading constraints impact market dynamics.

XGBoost detects unlawful insider trading with high accuracy.

In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…

In this paper, the Kyle model of insider trading is extended by characterizing the trading volume with long memory and allowing the noise trading volatility to follow a general stochastic process. Under this newly revised model, the equilibrium conditions are determined, with which the optimal insider trading strategy,…

Method detects insider trading using trading data and dimensionality reduction.

Illegal insider trading of stocks is based on releasing non-public information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Detecting illegal insider trading is difficult due to the complex, nonlinear, and non-stationary nature of the stock ma…

Two machine learning methods detect insider trading from investor activity data.

Study uses random forest to detect unlawful insider trading in financial data.

Generalizes insider trading model to multiple assets.

New discrete-time model shows insider trading dynamics.

Study detects unlawful insider trading using SHAP and CF, identifying key features.

The FCA improved insider trading regulation after 2012, reducing abnormal returns.

Study examines insider trading in short-selling restricted markets.

We consider a one-period Kyle (1985) framework where the insider can be subject to a penalty if she trades. We establish existence and uniqueness of equilibrium for virtually any penalty function when noise is uniform. In equilibrium, the demand of the insider and the price functions are in general non-linear and remai…

We construct explicitly a bridge process whose distribution, in its own filtration, is the same as the difference of two independent Poisson processes with the same intensity and its time 1 value satisfies a specific constraint. This construction allows us to show the existence of Glosten-Milgrom equilibrium and its as…

A model for insider trading with past price dependencies.

This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the number of trades and the total trading volume of trade packages, and analyze the possible s…

Modeling trading behavior with information signals and limit order books, showing market impact and equilibrium properties.

We present a new approach to the optimal portfolio problem for an insider with logarithmic utility. Our method is based on white noise theory, stochastic forward integrals, Hida-Malliavin calculus and the Donsker delta function.

We study super--replication of European contingent claims in an illiquid market with insider information. Illiquidity is captured by quadratic transaction costs and insider information is modeled by an investor who can peek into the future. Our main result describes the scaling limit of the super--replication prices wh…

Informed traders strategically reveal noisier signals, making prices less responsive to public information.

Kyle (1985) builds a pioneering and influential model, in which an insider with long-lived private information submits an optimal order in each period given the market maker's pricing rule. An inconsistency exists to some extent in the sense that the ``constant pricing rule " actually assumes an adaptive expected price…

Study shows Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.

Paper evaluates deadline-ILS on insider trading contracts, finding it distinguishes signals from noise.

Given a Markovian Brownian martingale $Z$, we build a process $X$ which is a martingale in its own filtration and satisfies $X_1 = Z_1$. We call $X$ a dynamic bridge, because its terminal value $Z_1$ is not known in advance. We compute explicitly its semimartingale decomposition under both its own filtration $\cF^X$ an…

Modeling insider trading with transaction costs and fair pricing.

This paper studies the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders, and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy signal of the insider's inf…

Honest traders can outperform insiders in a Black-Scholes market with positive probability.

This paper studies the Glosten Milgrom model whose risky asset value admits an arbitrary discrete distribution. Contrast to existing results on insider's models, the insider's optimal strategy in this model, if exists, is not of feedback type. Therefore a weak formulation of equilibrium is proposed. In this weak formul…

Three methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.

Study on Kyle-Back model with risk aversion and non-Gaussian beliefs.

Researchers tackle insider trading in incomplete markets using a discrete-time jump process approach.

Study proves existence and convergence of discrete-time Kyle models with multiple insiders.

We study a single-period optimal transport problem on $\mathbb{R}^2$ with a covariance-type cost function $c(x,y) = (x_1-y_1)(x_2-y_2)$ and a backward martingale constraint. We show that a transport plan $γ$ is optimal if and only if there is a maximal monotone set $G$ that supports the $x$-marginal of $γ$ and such tha…

This paper investigates the equilibrium interactions between trading targets and private information in a multi-period Kyle (1985) market. There are two investors who each follow dynamic trading strategies: A strategic portfolio rebalancer who engages in order splitting to reach a cumulative trading target and an uncon…

Study analyzes cryptocurrency pump-and-dump dynamics using minute-level data.

The background for the general mathematical link between utility and information theory investigated in this paper is a simple financial market model with two kinds of small traders: less informed traders and insiders, whose extra information is represented by an enlargement of the other agents' filtration. The expecte…

The continuous-time version of Kyle's (1985) model is studied, in which market makers are not fiduciaries. They have some market power which they utilize to set the price to their advantage, resulting in positive expected profits. This has several implications for the equilibrium, the most important being that by setti…

Study reveals opacity in insider sales, leading to inefficiencies in capital allocation.

We reconsider the problem of optimal trading in the presence of linear and quadratic costs, for arbitrary linear costs but in the limit where quadratic costs are small. Using matched asymptotic expansion techniques, we find that the trading speed vanishes inside a band that is narrower than in the absence of quadratic …

We extend Kyle's model to include stochastic liquidity and multiple assets.

ForesightFlow detects informed trading on prediction markets using an information leakage score.