This paper develops a Bayesian optimal design of experiments for estimating the statistical expectation of a black-box function.
problem Estimating the statistical expectation of a black-box function in complex systems.
method Sequentially querying the black-box function at specific designs selected by an infill-sampling criterion, maximizing expected information gain.
result Derivation of a semi-analytic mathematical formula for expected information gain about the statistical expectation of a physical response.