Derives time-averaged active inference from control principles.
problem Finite-horizon or discounted-surprise problems in active inference.
method Derives infinite-horizon, average-surprise active inference from optimal control principles.
result Unified objective functional for sensorimotor control.
Valid inference method for DTW distance for abnormal time-series detection.
problem Statistical inference on DTW distance under uncertain conditions.
method Conditional selective inference framework to derive valid p-values.
result First method to provide valid p-values for DTW distance.
Inference-aware meta-alignment of LLMs reduces computational cost.
problem Aligning LLMs to diverse human preferences is challenging due to conflicting criteria.
method IAMA trains a base model to be aligned to multiple tasks via different inference-time alignment algorithms, using non-linear GRPO for optimization.
result IAMA enables effective alignment of LLMs to multiple criteria with limited computational budget.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
Efficiently infers time-varying sparse MRFs with strong statistical guarantees.
problem Inference of time-varying sparse MRFs with strong statistical guarantees.
method Constrained optimization with exact ℓ0 regularization, near-linear time and memory complexity. result Sharp statistical guarantees for sparsely-changing Gaussian MRFs with as few as one sample per time.
Method infers dynamics from incomplete time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring stochastic dynamics from time series with missing data.
method Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm that iterates between E-step and M-step.
result The EM algorithm effectively recovers missing data points and infers underlying network models from real neuronal activities.
RNE provides a flexible framework for diffusion models, enabling inference-time control and energy-based training.
problem Insufficient knowledge of marginal densities in diffusion models.
method Introduces Radon-Nikodym Estimator (RNE) to reveal the connection between marginal densities and transition kernels.
result RNE delivers strong results in inference-time control and energy-based diffusion training.
Paper efficiently infers differential parameters in time-varying models using time score matching.
problem Efficiently inferring differential parameters in time-varying probabilistic models.
method Directly estimates the differential parameter using time score matching and proves consistency of the method.
result Consistent estimation of parameter derivatives in high-dimensional settings.
This paper addresses metaconsistency in Bayesian inference for metastable systems.
problem Inference for metastable systems may not be consistent, but can be metaconsistent over large but finite time intervals.
method Introduces metaconsistency in a Bayesian framework, discusses its relation to spectral properties of model dynamics.
result Metaconsistency can be exploited to infer sub-systems efficiently from larger systems.
Proposes exact inference for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics.
problem Inexact inference methods for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics are impractical for irregularly-sampled data.
method Uses higher-order numerical integrators to discretize dynamics with arbitrary accuracy and proposes multistep and Taylor integrators for exact inference.
result Demonstrates accurate representation of continuous-time systems through exact GP inference.
New PEMs improve network inference from time-series data.
problem Causal inference from time-series data with trade-off between accuracy and feasibility.
method Infer networks via process motifs for lagged correlation in linear stochastic processes.
result Proposed PEMs achieve high accuracy and efficiency in network inference.
TripDecoder recovers metro routes and travel times from smart card data.
problem Recover unknown routes and travel times in metro systems.
method Decouples two inference tasks: travel time and route preference.
result TripDecoder improves accuracy and efficiency compared to competitors.
Fast Bayesian inference with adaptable priors for real-time applications.
problem Intractable exact posterior computation limits Bayesian inference's adoption.
method Distribution Transformer architecture that learns mappings between priors and posteriors.
result Significant reduction in computation time from minutes to milliseconds.
This work shows how approximate reward models can significantly improve inference-time scaling.
problem Improving the efficiency of inference for large language models.
method Identifying the Bellman error of approximate reward models and using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for inference.
result Approximate reward models can reduce computational complexity from exponential to polynomial in T. In this work, we formalize the problem of causal inference over graph-based relational time-series data where each node in the graph has one or more time-series associated to it. We propose causal inference models for this problem that leverage both the graph topology and time-series to accurately estimate local causal…
New algorithm for continuous-time switching systems using variational inference.
problem Inference in time-series data with continuous-time switching systems.
method Developed a variational inference algorithm combining Gaussian process approximation and posterior inference for Markov jump processes.
result Bayesian latent state estimates and point estimates of unknown parameters for arbitrary points on the real axis.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
problem Numerical instability and inefficiency in approximate inference methods for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Conjugate-computation variational inference with Kalman recursions.
result Linear-time inference with fast and stable variational inference for state-space GP models.
Tutorial on optimizing diffusion model samples for specific metrics.
problem Optimizing diffusion model samples for specific downstream metrics.
method Review and exploration of inference-time guidance and alignment methods.
result Unified perspective on inference-time algorithms and novel methods.
Learned factor graphs improve inference from time sequences using neural networks.
problem Inference from time sequences with limited labeled data.
method Combines model-based algorithms and data-driven ML tools for stationary time sequences.
result Learned factor graphs can accurately infer from small training sets.
New method infers causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
method Proposes a new class of restricted SCM with time-varying filters and stationary noise, leveraging asymmetry from nonstationarity.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed methodology on various synthetic and real datasets.
PriorGuide adapts diffusion models to new priors at test time.
problem Limited applicability of prior distributions in diffusion-based inference.
method PriorGuide uses a guidance approximation to adapt diffusion models to new priors at test time.
result Enhances the versatility of pre-trained inference models by allowing flexible adaptation to new priors.
Efficiently infers latent SDEs with scalable memory and time costs.
problem Inference of latent SDEs with high time and memory complexity.
method Amortized reparametrization of expectations under linear SDEs, coupled with efficient gradient approximation.
result Achieves similar performance to adjoint sensitivities with fewer model evaluations.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
problem Traditional HSMM's are limited to discrete time grids and cannot handle irregularly spaced data.
method Formulated integro-differential forward and backward equations for CTSMC's, introduced scalable Viterbi-type algorithm.
result Efficiently solved equations for posterior marginals and path estimates.
The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
Improves diffusion model performance and efficiency through classical search.
problem Tackles inference-time control in diffusion models.
method Proposes a framework combining local and global search for efficient navigation.
result Significant gains in performance and efficiency across various domains.
Paper introduces online tensor inference for real-time data analysis.
problem Real-time processing of high-dimensional tensor data.
method Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for efficient online inference.
result Establishes non-asymptotic convergence and optimal estimation error rate.
TAGM models time-varying connections between variables.
problem Inferring temporal relationships between covariates.
method Time Adaptive Gaussian Model (TAGM) using Hidden Markov Models and Gaussian Graphical Models.
result TAGM outperforms state-of-the-art methods for temporal network inference.
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
problem Intractable inference for coupled continuous-time Markov chains with discrete observations.
method Latent Interacting Particle Systems, look-ahead functions, twisted Sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on latent SIRS model and wildfire spread dynamics.
EHR-MPC optimizes sepsis treatment using digital twins and inference-time control.
problem Optimal sepsis treatment policies are contested and difficult to adapt during inference.
method EHR-MPC decouples learning patient dynamics from treatment optimization, enabling inference-time control over learned digital twins.
result EHR-MPC achieves comparable off-policy performance and improved simulation performance compared to RL baselines.
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
Improves scalability and efficiency of mixture models in black-box variational inference.
problem Scaling mixture models in black-box variational inference leads to high parameter and time costs.
method Introduces MISVAE for amortized mixture parameter space and new ELBO estimators.
result Achieves superior estimation performance with fewer parameters and shorter inference time.
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
The paper proposes using path signatures for better inference in time series data.
problem Simulation models with time series data often lack tractable likelihood functions.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with path signatures to handle sequential data.
result Theoretical guarantees on the resultant posteriors for Bayesian parameter inference.
This paper reviews causal inference methods for time series data.
problem Estimating treatment effects and identifying causal relations from time series data.
method Comprehensive review of approaches for treatment effect estimation and causal discovery.
result Provides a list of evaluation metrics and datasets for time series causal inference.
ISALT uses inference to simulate SDEs with large time-steps, improving efficiency.
problem Efficiently simulating ergodic SDEs with large time-steps.
method Inference-based schemes adaptive to large time-steps (ISALT) from data.
result ISALT achieves significant time reduction and optimal accuracy.
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations at shorter time horizons. However, the amount of time needed for MCMC to exceed…
Framework disentangles deep feature uncertainty for efficient inference.
problem Inference-time uncertainty estimation for reliable decision-making.
method Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection framework.
result Significantly tighter prediction intervals and 60% compute reduction.
EDICT learns evidential distributions for irregular time series, improving predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in predicting and characterizing uncertainty for irregular time series data.
method EDICT (Evidential Distributions for Irregular Time Series) learns a continuous-time evidential distribution.
result EDICT achieves competitive performance on time series classification tasks and provides better uncertainty quantification.
New algorithm improves inference-time alignment without reward hacking.
problem Improving quality of responses from language models with limited compute.
method Inference-time alignment, focusing on extttInferenceTimePessimism algorithm. result Optimal performance and scaling-monotonicity of extttInferenceTimePessimism. Bayesian interpolants explain neural network inferences concisely.
problem Understanding neural network inferences.
method Adapting Craig interpolants for neural networks.
result Produces precise, understandable explanations.
We study the inference of a model of dynamic networks in which both communities and links keep memory of previous network states. By considering maximum likelihood inference from single snapshot observations of the network, we show that link persistence makes the inference of communities harder, decreasing the detectab…
In many learning situations, resources at inference time are significantly more constrained than resources at training time. This paper studies a general paradigm, called Differentiable ARchitecture Compression (DARC), that combines model compression and architecture search to learn models that are resource-efficient a…
Reactmine infers chemical reactions from time series data, overcoming sparse model limitations.
problem Inferring chemical reaction networks from time series data, especially when initial conditions are not varied.
method Sequential reaction inference in a search tree, ranking and re-optimizing kinetics.
result Reactmine successfully infers preponderant regulations in real datasets, matching model-based analyses.
DTS improves inference-time alignment of diffusion models with less compute.
problem Inference-time alignment of diffusion models suffers from inaccurate value estimation and inefficient reuse of past computations.
method Diffusion Tree Sampling (DTS) uses a tree-based approach to propagate terminal rewards and iteratively refine value estimates.
result DTS produces asymptotically exact samples and matches the FID of best-performing baselines with up to 10x less compute.
New approach for causal inference with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.
method Variational estimation with a representer theorem and random input space.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on various temporal datasets.
This paper optimizes SMPC for neural network inference, reducing memory and time.
problem Memory and time constraints in secure neural network inference.
method Implemented ABY2.0 protocol, optimized memory usage, and used a helper node.
result MNIST inference reduced from 8.03 GB RAM and 200s to 0.2 GB RAM and 32s.
Automates infectious disease policy-making via inference in epidemiological models.
problem Improving policy-making for infectious diseases during pandemics.
method Performing inference in existing epidemiological models using a probabilistic programming language.
result Automated inference leads to better disease progression outcomes and policy prescriptions.