Study reveals hidden infections and infection dynamics from early data.
problem Understanding early infection dynamics and hidden infections in COVID-19.
method Data-driven machine learning analysis focusing on infection counts over time.
result Significant asymptomatic infections, 10-day lag, and strong infectious force.
Model shows screening for infectious disease is hard but Thompson sampling works well.
problem Optimal screening policy for infectious diseases is hard to find.
method Stochastic-control model with Thompson sampling for optimal performance.
result Thompson sampling provides optimal performance guarantees in screening for infectious diseases.
Maps of infectious disease---charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity, and the burden on human health---provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly…
A framework for data-driven decision-making in infectious disease control.
problem Optimizing trade-offs between public health and economic impacts.
method Multi-objective model-based reinforcement learning.
result Pareto-optimal policies minimizing long-term costs.
PHIBP predicts infectious disease outbreaks in sparse data regions.
problem Predicting outbreaks in regions with no historical data.
method Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP) framework.
result PHIBP provides accurate outbreak predictions and meaningful insights in sparse data settings.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Automates infectious disease policy-making via inference in epidemiological models.
problem Improving policy-making for infectious diseases during pandemics.
method Performing inference in existing epidemiological models using a probabilistic programming language.
result Automated inference leads to better disease progression outcomes and policy prescriptions.
Hybrid model improves COVID-19 case forecasting accuracy.
problem Limited data and simplistic models for accurate prediction.
method Combining SEIR and RNN on a graph structure with local and edge features.
result Improves prediction accuracy on state-level COVID-19 data.
In this paper, we propose a two-sector Markovian infectious model, which is an extension of Greenwood's model. The central idea of this model is that the causality of defaults of two sectors is in both direction, which enrich dependence dynamics. The Bayesian Information Criterion is adopted to compare the proposed mod…
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Optimizes control of infectious disease spread using stochastic methods.
problem Optimizing control of highly infectious diseases like COVID-19.
method Reformulated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation as stochastic minimum principle, leading to forward-backward stochastic differential equations.
result Numerous numerical solutions presented under various scenarios.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
We introduce an infectious default and recovery model for N obligors. Obligors are assumed to be exchangeable and their states are described by N Bernoulli random variables S_{i} (i=1,...,N). They are expressed by multiplying independent Bernoulli variables X_{i},Y_{ij},Y'_{ij}, and default and recovery infections are …
Simulation-based inference aids in predicting disease dynamics for health policy.
problem Predicting disease dynamics to inform public health interventions.
method Simulation-based inference using machine learning.
result Potential for efficient interpretable Bayesian inference in epidemiological models.
Model for valuing options on epidemic spread.
problem Valuation of options on epidemic spread during an outbreak.
method Stochastic differential SIR model for epidemic dynamics.
result Parsimonious model for option valuation on epidemic spread.
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abber…
Noisy Pooled PCR tests large groups more efficiently.
problem Efficiently test large populations for viral infections.
method Converts group testing to a linear inverse problem with a message passing algorithm.
result Estimates patient illness status with fewer pooled measurements.
Method predicts disease outbreaks using search logs, overcoming instability.
problem Predicting disease outbreaks from search logs is challenging due to short-term and long-term instability.
method Seasonal-adjustment method decomposes logs into seasonal, trend, and irregular components; feature selection method selects relevant search terms.
result Proposed method outperforms comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases.
Model predicts COVID-19 spread with better accuracy than existing methods.
problem Limited daily samples in time for data-driven methods.
method Integrated spatiotemporal model combining epidemic differential equations and RNN.
result Model outperforms existing methods in forecasting cases.
Modeling infection hotspots to quantify effects of contact tracing and testing.
problem Capturing the role of infection hotspots in disease transmission.
method Temporal point process modeling framework to represent visits and disease transmission.
result Estimation of transmission rates at sites and households using Bayesian optimization.
New bound for neural nets on non-iid data.
problem Generalization of deep nets for dependent data.
method Establishes a generalization bound for feed-forward neural networks on φ-mixing data. result Proves neural nets can generalize well on non-iid data.
New method uses normalizing flows to improve force fields for coarse-grained molecular dynamics.
problem Lack of reference atomistic forces makes force matching infeasible for MLCG force fields.
method Introduces noise-based kernels adapted to low-data regimes using normalizing flows.
result Flow-based kernels reduce local distortions while preserving global accuracy.
New algorithm efficiently trains machine learning models to atomic forces data.
problem Efficiently training machine learning models to large amounts of force data.
method Developed an efficient algorithm for training machine learning models to all available force data.
result Training to all available force data is only a few times more expensive than training to energies alone.
The paper integrates dissipative and curl forces using geometric methods.
problem Incorporating dissipative forces into curl forces for non-conservative systems.
method Geometric metriplectic approach, Herglotz principle, generalized Euler-Lagrange equation, Galley's method.
result Natural formulations for Lagrangian and Hamiltonian dynamics of non-conservative systems.
Improved CG force-field learning from all-atom data.
problem Training accurate coarse-grained models from all-atom simulations is challenging.
method Optimized force mapping to improve statistical efficiency of force-field learning.
result Substantially improved CG force-fields can be learned from the same simulation data.
Paper introduces a PDE-free method for decomposing forces in any dimension.
problem Analyzing non-conservative forces in arbitrary dimensions.
method Geometric decomposition using homotopy operator and Frobenius theorem.
result Decomposes forces into gradient and antiexact components, characterizing curl forces.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
We consider a generalization of the notion of a natural mechanical system to the case of additional forces of gyroscopic type. Such forces appear, for example, as a result of global reduction of a natural system with symmetry. We study symmetries in the systems with gyroscopic forces to find out when these systems admi…
The paper analyzes errors in mechanical systems with external forces.
problem Error analysis of mechanical systems with external forces.
method Analysis of variational integrators with contact order r for discrete mechanical systems. result The contact order of the integrator is the same as the contact order of the original systems.
Study curve flows with global forcing terms using a distance comparison principle.
problem Analyse the behavior of curves under curve flows with global forcing terms.
method Prove a distance comparison principle for curve shortening flow with arbitrary global forcing terms.
result Established a distance comparison principle for curve flows with global forcing terms.
New method learns from subgroup feedback in complex systems.
problem Optimizing complex systems with heterogeneous components.
method Decomposed Gaussian Process (GP) regression and optimization algorithm.
result Proved lower variance and improved accuracy in subgroup feedback.
In this paper we provide a variational derivation of the Euler-Poincaré equations for systems subjected to external forces using an adaptation of the techniques introduced by Galley and others. Moreover, we study in detail the underlying geometry which is related to the notion of Poisson groupoid. Finally, we apply the…
An important task in structural design is to quantify the structural performance of an object under the external forces it may experience during its use. The problem proves to be computationally very challenging as the external forces' contact locations and magnitudes may exhibit significant variations. We present an e…
We show that under suitable non-degeneracy conditions, complete gradient flow lines of the scalar curvature functional of a riemannian manifold perturb into eternal forced mean curvature flows with large forcing term.
The paper finds that circles and logarithmic spirals are the only constant-speed ramps for a specific force field.
problem Determining planar curves for constant-speed motion under specific force conditions.
method Analyzing the motion of a particle under friction and a central force field.
result Every solution to the constant-speed motion problem approaches either a circle or a logarithmic spiral.
The Teacher Forcing algorithm trains recurrent networks by supplying observed sequence values as inputs during training and using the network's own one-step-ahead predictions to do multi-step sampling. We introduce the Professor Forcing algorithm, which uses adversarial domain adaptation to encourage the dynamics of th…
Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, market dynamics clearly differ…
Proposes a new model to price options considering market forces beyond Black-Scholes.
problem Tackles the limitations of the Black-Scholes model in capturing unexpected market behaviors.
method Uses the analogy between quantum harmonic oscillator and financial market dynamics to propose a new market force-driven model.
result Shows how various market forces can be incorporated to modify option pricing, providing practical applications.
Proves uniqueness of blowups for forced mean curvature flow.
problem Proving uniqueness of blowups for forced mean curvature flow.
method Adapting methods from Euclidean space mean curvature flow to handle forcing term and blow-up limits.
result Uniqueness of tangent cones for forced mean curvature flow at self-shrinkers and cylindrical self-shrinkers.
The paper simplifies complex mechanical systems with external forces.
problem Analyzing symmetric discrete mechanical systems with external forces.
method Lagrangian reduction and reconstruction for principal bundles.
result Evolution of momentum maps and Poisson structures under different conditions.
We consider the problem of estimating the topology of spatial interactions in a discrete state, discrete time spatio-temporal graphical model where the interactions affect the temporal evolution of each agent in a network. Among other models, the susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model for interaction events fal…
New insights into Hessian structure of neural networks reveal two forces.
problem Understanding the Hessian structure of neural networks.
method Analyzing the static and dynamic forces, comparing limit distributions using random matrix theory.
result The Hessian structure arises from a combination of static and dynamic forces, with C being a primary driver. We apply the potential force estimation method to artificial time series of market price produced by a deterministic dealer model. We find that dealers' feedback of linear prediction of market price based on the latest mean price changes plays the central role in the market's potential force. When markets are dominated…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
In this paper, we consider the mean curvature flow of convex hypersurfaces in Euclidean spaces with a general forcing term. We show that the flow may shrink to a point in finite time if the forcing term is small, or exist for all times and expand to infinity if the forcing term is large enough. The flow can also conver…
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.
We are able to derive the equations of motion for forced mechanical systems in a purely variational setting, both in the context of Lagrangian or Hamiltonian mechanics, by duplicating the variables of the system as introduced by Galley [2013], Galley, Tsang, and Stein [2014]. We show that this construction is useful to…
The paper explains emergent phenomena in deep learning using entropic forces.
problem Understanding the cause of emergent phenomena in deep learning and large language models.
method Proposes a rigorous entropic-force theory for neural networks trained with SGD and variants.
result Shows that representation learning is governed by emergent entropic forces that break continuous symmetries and preserve discrete ones.