Paper tackles RUL prediction with scarce data using indirect supervision.
problem Predicting RUL with indirect supervision and scarce time series data.
method Unified framework called parameterized static regression, handling data scarcity without interpolation.
result Competitive performance in prediction accuracy with simulated data scarcity.
This paper tackles structure learning in indirect observations of Gaussian and non-Gaussian random vectors.
problem Learning the graphical structure of random vectors indirectly observed through a sensing matrix and corrupted noise.
method Parametric and non-parametric approaches for Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions, respectively.
result Correct graphical structure can be recovered under indefinite sensing systems with insufficient samples.
Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
problem Estimating direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under selection-on-observables.
method Double/debiased machine learning estimators based on efficient score functions.
result Uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of effect estimators.
Unified framework for estimating indirect effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounding.
problem Challenges in evaluating indirect effects due to unmeasured confounding and unethical exposures.
method Developed a unified identification and estimation framework using proximal causal inference.
result Unified identification and estimation of PIIE and causal effect of an intervening variable in settings with pervasive unmeasured confounding.
This paper studies the problem of {\em learning} the probability distribution PX of a discrete random variable X using indirect and sequential samples. At each time step, we choose one of the possible K functions, g1,…,gK and observe the corresponding sample gi(X). The goal is to estimate the proba…
End-to-end algorithm for controlling bilinear systems with probabilistic noise.
problem Controlling bilinear systems with noisy data.
method Proposes an end-to-end algorithm using statistical learning theory and robust controller design.
result Derived finite sample identification error bounds and structurally suitable for control.
We introduce the anti-profile Support Vector Machine (apSVM) as a novel algorithm to address the anomaly classification problem, an extension of anomaly detection where the goal is to distinguish data samples from a number of anomalous and heterogeneous classes based on their pattern of deviation from a normal stable c…
Study stability of trading strategy under market perturbations.
problem Dynamic stability of trading strategy under market changes.
method Established reverse conjugacy characterizations, proved continuity and convergence of indirect utility process.
result Continuity and first-order convergence of indirect utility process under market perturbations.
A quantum-inspired classical algorithm speeds up LS-SVM classification.
problem Big data challenge in SVM classification.
method Improved indirect sampling technique for LS-SVM.
result Algorithm achieves logarithmic runtime for low rank data matrices.
Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels can fail on real-world examples.
problem Validity issues in machine learning when target labels are indirectly defined.
method Identification of problematic datasets and models using a general procedure.
result Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels will fail on real-world examples.
Unified framework for learning with indirect supervision signals.
problem Learning from indirect supervision signals when gold labels are missing or costly.
method Developed a unified theoretical framework for multi-class classification with variable supervision.
result Introduced the concept of separation to characterize learnability and generalization bounds.
Direct and indirect RL methods classified and compared.
problem Classifying RL methods for sequential decision making.
method Direct RL solves optimal policy directly, indirect RL solves Bellman equation.
result Direct and indirect RL methods are equivalent and can be unified.
PLRM synthesizes labels from mismatched sources for better training sets.
problem Creating labeled training sets is a major challenge in machine learning.
method PLRM uses probabilistic modeling to synthesize labels from indirect supervision sources with different output spaces.
result PLRM outperforms baselines by 2%-9% on various tasks.
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
New framework for learning from various weak supervision types.
problem Scarcity of labeled data in real-world problems.
method Probabilistic framework based on maximum likelihood principle for deep neural networks.
result General method for learning from noisy labels, complementary labels, and coarse-grained labels.
Study shows cooperation can improve everyone's market efficiency.
problem Understanding when collective cooperation improves market efficiency.
method General semimartingale framework, deriving necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Strict improvement in each agent's indirect utility when cooperation is beneficial.
New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.
problem Conflicting conclusions from different sponsors analyzing the same data.
method Arbitrated indirect treatment comparisons (ArMAIC) targeting a common target population.
result Estimates treatment effects in a common target population, resolving the MAIC paradox.
This study compares direct and indirect methods for estimating own funds in life insurance, finding indirect methods more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling.
problem Computing own funds for life insurers using direct and indirect methods in a risk-neutral pricing framework.
method Introduced a novel family of mixed estimators including both direct and indirect methods, integrated into a control variate framework for variance reduction.
result The indirect method is more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling, but neither method is universally superior.
The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalization. In this paper we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of f…
Physics-informed semantic inpainting improves geostatistical modeling by incorporating indirect measurements.
problem Inferring heterogeneous geological fields from limited measurements and prior spatial statistics.
method Proposes a physics-informed semantic inpainting framework using WGAN-GP to incorporate both direct and indirect measurements.
result The method satisfies physical conservation laws and enhances inpainting performance compared to using only direct measurements.
New method for learning indirectly through control variables.
problem Learning relationships when direct manipulation of variables is impossible.
method Study of indirect active learning under nonparametric models with fixed budget.
result Minimax rates for estimating relationships between variables.
Indirect attacks can fool graph classifiers even with poisoned neighbors.
problem How to evaluate and defend graph convolutional neural networks against indirect adversarial attacks.
method Proposed a method to generate adversarial perturbations on a single node far from the target.
result 99% attack success rate within two-hops from the target in two datasets.
Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.
problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial insti…
This paper learns prior models from indirect data efficiently.
problem Learning prior models from indirect data in Bayesian inversion.
method Generative model of prior as pushforward of Gaussian in latent space, learned by minimizing loss function.
result Efficient residual-based neural operator approximation for forward model learning.
We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an expectation-maximization procedure that achieves better accuracy in estimating the parameters of…
Proposes new embeddings for bipartite graphs to better capture indirect relationships.
problem Typical graph embeddings fail to capture type-specific features in bipartite graphs.
method Develops two types of embeddings (FOBE and HOBE) that decompose edges into indirect relationships and uses algebraic distance for higher-order sampling.
result Ensemble embeddings improve performance over individual methods in link prediction and recommendation tasks.
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
problem Detecting crypto wash trading using indirect methods and leaked data.
method Public NFT data analysis, direct estimation, AI-based estimator.
result AI reduces estimation errors in NFT markets, improving on indirect methods.
The study tackles indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
problem Indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
method Presented a statistical model free of proxy discrimination.
result The canonical price in the model does not satisfy group fairness axioms.
New method for incremental meta-learning reduces forgetting and improves performance.
problem Incremental meta-learning for few-shot classification tasks.
method Indirect Discriminant Alignment (IDA) with incremental updates.
result Incremental learning reduces forgetting and improves performance.
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
Driven by the goal to enable sleep apnea monitoring and machine learning-based detection at home with small mobile devices, we investigate whether interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer can be used to create classifiers with acceptable performance. Interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer means that a…
Paper proposes an algorithm to learn DAGs with indirect dependencies.
problem Learning DAGs misses indirect dependencies in local variables.
method Two-phase algorithm using high-order HSIC for local optimization.
result OT algorithm outperforms existing methods in structure estimation.
New benchmark PVR tests neural network reasoning about indirection.
problem Understanding neural network generalization limits.
method Introducing Pointer Value Retrieval (PVR) benchmark.
result Large variations in performance across different conditions.
This paper studies communication efficiency in federated learning by optimizing the sum-rate-distortion function for indirect multiterminal source coding.
problem Indirect multiterminal source coding in federated learning where edge devices send noisy gradients to the server.
method Analyzes the rate region for the quadratic vector Gaussian CEO problem under unbiased estimator and derives an explicit formula for the sum-rate-distortion function.
result Derives an explicit formula for the sum-rate-distortion function in the special case of identical gradients over edge devices.
New method estimates corporate default probabilities using indirect data.
problem Lack of direct default rate data for corporate companies.
method Modeling default probability dynamics using Bank of Russia overdue debt data.
result Validated method produces trustworthy default probability series.
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
problem Identifying causal direct effects under unmeasured confounding.
method Developed relaxed conditions for identifying natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
result Identified natural direct effect under unmeasured confounding conditions.
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
problem Improving treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
method Statistical decision theory with maximum regret evaluation.
result Estimates illness probability for better treatment choice.
A new method for estimating probabilities and risks using Markov processes.
problem Computational difficulties in classical importance sampling for latent Markov models.
method Proposes a new importance sampling framework that minimizes estimator variance.
result Shows logarithmic efficiency of the proposed estimator.
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equili…
In structured prediction problems where we have indirect supervision of the output, maximum marginal likelihood faces two computational obstacles: non-convexity of the objective and intractability of even a single gradient computation. In this paper, we bypass both obstacles for a class of what we call linear indirectl…
Develops a method to audit indirect feature influence in complex models.
problem Auditing indirect feature influence in complex, black-box models.
method Disentangled influence audits using disentangled representations.
result Can detect proxy features and show which ones affect model outcomes most.
Researchers show how to secretly train models with hidden data, detect usage with high confidence.
problem Protecting training data from traceability in large language models.
method Gradient-based optimization to learn secret sequences absent from training data.
result Secret sequences can be learned by models without performance degradation, detectable with high confidence.
New method analyzes complex multivariate pathways in high-dimensional data.
problem High-dimensional mediation analysis of multivariate exposures, mediators, and outcomes.
method Simultaneous variable selection, indirect effect matrix estimation, and prediction of multivariate outcomes.
result Identifies biologically interpretable genetic-neural-cognitive pathways.
Optimal reinsurance contracts designed for a continuum of risk types.
problem Designing optimal reinsurance contracts with a continuum of risk types.
method Principal-agent model, VaR at risk tolerance level, change of variables, univariate approach.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts are in stop-loss form, classifying agents into high and low risk groups.
This study measures price risk aversion using indirect utility functions in a lab experiment.
problem Measuring risk aversion with uncertain prices in experimental economics.
method Using indirect utility functions and a multiple price list method in a lab experiment.
result Price risk aversion is statistically greater than payoff risk aversion.
A model predicts influential nodes in complex networks by considering indirect interactions.
problem Identifying influential nodes in complex networks using indirect interactions.
method Proposes MOGen, a multi-order generative model that considers all indirect influences up to a maximum distance.
result MOGen consistently outperforms network models and path-based approaches in predicting influential nodes.
Neural Optimal Design of Experiments improves inverse problem solving efficiency.
problem Optimal experimental design in inverse problems.
method Jointly trains a reconstruction model and design variables in a single loop.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity and improves reconstruction accuracy.