Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
problem Estimating causal effects in sharp and fuzzy RD/RK designs.
method Hierarchical Gaussian Process models for regression and classification.
result Hierarchical GP models improve precision and coverage of RD/RK estimations.
Paper analyzes GP-EI for Bayesian optimization with no regret and provides guidance on choosing incumbents.
problem Analyzing cumulative regret of GP-EI with different incumbents in noisy Bayesian optimization.
method Analyzes GP-EI with three incumbents (BPMI, BSPMI, BOI) in both SE and Matérn kernels, proving no-regret for BPMI and BSPMI.
result GP-EI with BPMI and BSPMI is a no-regret algorithm for both SE and Matérn kernels, providing theoretical guidance for choosing incumbents.
Stablecoins offer efficient settlement but externalize costs and risks.
problem Comparing stablecoins to card networks in retail payments.
method Unified analytical framework (CLEAR) across five dimensions.
result Stablecoins are advantageous in closed-loop and high-friction contexts but structurally disadvantaged as open-loop instruments.
Fossil power firms have recently profited more than renewables, but this may be a temporary phenomenon.
problem The profitability gap between renewable and fossil power firms in Europe.
method Machine-learning clustering and Bayesian model averaging.
result Renewable power firms are becoming more profitable, while fossil power firms are becoming less so.
Reducing barriers to entry in large-scale ML markets, study shows multi-objective learning can lower data requirements.
problem Barriers to entry in emerging markets for large-scale machine learning models.
method Defined a multi-objective high-dimensional regression framework to study reputational damage and data requirements.
result The number of data points needed for a new company to enter the market can be significantly smaller than the incumbent company's dataset size.
A corrected EI acquisition function handles noisy observations in Bayesian optimization.
problem Noisy observations in Bayesian optimization.
method Proposes a modified expected improvement (EI) acquisition function that incorporates covariance information from the Gaussian Process model.
result Achieves a sublinear convergence rate on cumulative regret bound under heteroscedastic observation noise.
Zipf's law states that the number of firms with size greater than S is inversely proportional to S. Most explanations start with Gibrat's rule of proportional growth but require additional constraints. We show that Gibrat's rule, at all firm levels, yields Zipf's law under a balance condition between the effective grow…
In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation, where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way the two forces influencing consumer choice -- (local) social interactions and (global) advertising -- interact. We st…
Sequential screening and dynamic regret in multi-armed bandits with arriving arms
problem Sequential experimentation with expanding arm set
method UCB-AA with preliminary screening
result Regret bounds depend on arrival process
BOIDS optimizes high-dimensional problems by guiding optimization with one-dimensional lines.
problem Scaling Bayesian Optimization to high-dimensional problems.
method BOIDS uses a sequence of one-dimensional direction lines guided by an adaptive selection technique and incorporates subspace embedding for efficiency.
result BOIDS outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various synthetic and real-world problems.
We empirically verify that the market capitalisations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values, with the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simpl…
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
problem Challenges in healthcare risk assessment due to label scarcity and asymmetric misclassification costs.
method Jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds via mixed-integer programming (MIP).
result Prevents label-scarce category collapse and achieves more accurate risk categorization.
Model predicts carbon price for green tech adoption.
problem Achieving emission targets with green technology adoption.
method Stationary equilibrium model with endogenous carbon price.
result Carbon price and stationary distribution of firms identified.
As virtually all aspects of our lives are increasingly impacted by algorithmic decision making systems, it is incumbent upon us as a society to ensure such systems do not become instruments of unfair discrimination on the basis of gender, race, ethnicity, religion, etc. We consider the problem of determining whether th…
Study when to replace machine learning models with new data.
problem When to switch machine learning models with new data sources.
method Unified economic and statistical framework linking learning-curve dynamics, data-acquisition, and retraining costs.
result Look-ahead sequential method outperforms other methods and approaches optimal value.
Unified framework for best arm identification and dueling bandits regret minimization.
problem Best arm identification and dueling bandits regret minimization.
method Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit (TG-ITE) framework.
result Unified approach achieving optimal sample complexity and regret guarantees.
Improved AI patent classifier measures U.S. and China's AI patenting.
problem Measuring AI patents with high precision and generalization.
method Fine-tuning PatentSBERTa on manually labeled data from USPTO's AI Patent Dataset.
result Rapid growth in AI patenting in both countries, but different organizational patterns.
New method optimizes treatment policies to avoid winner's curse.
problem Winner's curse in treatment policy optimization.
method Inference-aware policy optimization.
result Optimizes for both estimated performance and downstream evaluation.
New method reduces inventory inaccuracies by 10x, saving retailers 4% annually.
problem Inaccurate inventory records cost retailers 4% annually, and manual detection is impractical.
method Proposes a new anomaly detection method for low-rank Poisson matrices using cross-sectional data.
result Our approach reduces anomaly detection costs by up to 10x compared to existing methods.
Asymmetry PRISM outperforms CPU and GPU solvers for institutional rebalancing.
problem Institutional rebalancing with deadline constraints
method Asymmetry PRISM
result Asymmetry PRISM-CPU is 4.5x to 24.1x faster than the fastest completed reference row in the same lane.
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
problem AI's risks to vulnerable peoples and negative impacts of innovation.
method Embedding decolonial critical approach in AI technical practice.
result Developing tactics to align AI with ethical principles.
Quantum machine learning offers advantages for broader learning tasks.
problem Demonstrate QML advantage over classical methods for general learning tasks.
method Construct a new family of supervised learning tasks and prove their hardness.
result Prove provable advantage of QML based on general quantum computational advantages.
Platform uses queries to elicit investor preferences for portfolio trades, improving allocation efficiency.
problem Hidden-information problem in institutional crossing markets where investors value trades as portfolios but liquidity discovery is organized by individual securities.
method Modeling portfolio crossing as preference elicitation, using price-directed demand queries and value queries to verify selected packages.
result Hybrid procedure using demand and value queries recovers 88-95% of full-information welfare with a limited query budget.
This paper improves Q-learning bounds using reference-advantage decomposition.
problem Improving Q-learning bounds in MDPs with positive suboptimality gaps.
method Develops a novel error decomposition framework to prove gap-dependent regret bounds.
result Establishes logarithmic gap-dependent regret bounds for Q-learning.
Machine learning predicts quantum advantage in noisy quantum walks.
problem Finding optimal graph types and coherence requirements for quantum advantage.
method Convolutional neural network trained on simulated examples of quantum walks on cycle graphs.
result Machine learning can predict quantum advantage for a wide range of decoherence parameters.
A new approach RA improves stochastic optimization by executing multiple steps between subsample updates.
problem Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of stochastic optimization methods.
method Developed Retrospective Approximation (RA) which executes multiple steps between subsample updates using a deterministic solver.
result RA achieves almost sure and L 1 L_1 L 1 consistency under weak conditions and optimizes iteration and oracle complexity. DG improves policy gradients by weighting actions with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
problem Pathologies in standard policy gradients, leading to poor updates and over-allocation of gradient budget.
method Introduces Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) that gates each term with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
result DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and shifts the expected gradient closer to the oracle across multiple contexts.
UCB-Advantage learns MDPs with O ( H 2 S A T ) O(\sqrt{H^2SAT}) O ( H 2 S A T ) regret.
problem Model-free reinforcement learning in finite-horizon MDPs.
method Reference-Advantage decomposition for low regret.
result Achieves i l d e O ( H 2 S A T ) ilde{O}(\sqrt{H^2SAT}) i l d e O ( H 2 S A T ) regret, matching best known bounds. New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
problem Discovering causal factors behind home field advantage in sports.
method DYNAMO: a novel causal discovery method for non-stationary processes.
result Time-varying home field advantages influenced by referee bias.
Study compares adaptive vs fixed query learning methods.
problem Comparing adaptive and fixed query learning methods for task approximation.
method Examined in-context and agentic learning in two settings: unrestricted and realizable.
result Adaptivity does not hinder performance in unrestricted setting but can in realizable setting.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Study on when RLVR can learn compositional problems.
problem Understanding when RLVR can learn compositional problems.
method Theoretical analysis of task-advantage ratio to characterize learnability.
result Identified conditions for learnability of compositional problems.
Quantum advantage in derivative pricing requires 8k qubits and 54M T-depth.
problem Quantum advantage in pricing derivatives.
method Re-parameterization method combining pre-trained variational circuits and fault-tolerant quantum computing.
result Benchmark use cases require 8k logical qubits and a T-depth of 54 million.
Gradient descent benefits from tangent kernel advantages under specific conditions.
problem Comparing gradient descent with tangent kernel methods in learning.
method Analysis of gradient descent and tangent kernel methods under different conditions.
result Gradient descent can achieve small error only if tangent kernel methods have a non-trivial advantage, but this advantage can be very small.
We develop Riemannian Stein Variational Gradient Descent (RSVGD), a Bayesian inference method that generalizes Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) to Riemann manifold. The benefits are two-folds: (i) for inference tasks in Euclidean spaces, RSVGD has the advantage over SVGD of utilizing information geometry, and …
Two new criteria help understand the advantage of deep neural networks.
problem Understanding the advantage of deepening neural networks.
method Proposed two new criteria to evaluate the expressivity of functions computable by deep neural networks.
result Increasing layers is more effective than increasing units in improving the expressivity of deep neural networks.
Quantum algorithms accelerate financial risk computation.
problem Accelerating the computation of financial market risk.
method Quantum gradient estimation algorithms for market sensitivities.
result Significant reduction in resource requirements for financial quantum advantage.
Latent-state environments with long horizons, such as those faced by recommender systems, pose significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we identify and analyze several key hurdles for RL in such environments, including belief state error and small action advantage. We develop a general prin…
The paper tackles scalarization issues in A2C RL algorithms, proposing methods to avoid gradient overlap and noise.
problem Scalarization issues in A2C RL algorithms leading to gradient overlap and uncontrolled noise.
method Proposes techniques to avoid gradient overlap and noise in A2C RL algorithms.
result Pilot experiments show the proposed method speeds up training in A2C RL algorithms.
New proof shows local wealth condensation in economic models with biases.
problem Economic models with biases leading to wealth condensation.
method Elementary proof based on properties of wealth distributions.
result Local wealth condensation observed in models with wealth or poverty advantages.
DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.
problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.
Quantum Boltzmann Machines trained on quantum annealers produce noisy synthetic data.
problem Training quantum Boltzmann machines on quantum annealers for financial data generation.
method Used D-Wave Advantage 4.1 quantum annealer to train QBMs and compare with classical RBMs.
result Quantum Boltzmann Machines trained on quantum annealers are noisier and less effective than classical RBMs.
Improved SAC with AWMP for better control tasks.
problem Discontinuous and non-smooth optimal policies in reinforcement learning.
method Advantage Weighted Mixture Policy (AWMP) for SAC, learning state-specific weights.
result SAC with AWMP outperforms SAC in four control tasks.
This study improves quantum classifiers by optimizing data preprocessing.
problem Quantum Machine Learning advantages are not yet clearly demonstrated.
method Used Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) for data preprocessing.
result Variational Quantum Algorithm (VQA) outperforms classical classifiers.
Quantum circuits reveal pathways to dequantization in machine learning models.
problem Navigating the complex landscape of quantum machine learning models and algorithms.
method Introducing a framework connecting quantum circuit structure to function representability.
result Fundamental properties of quantum circuits determine classical simulability of models.
VQAs use classical optimization to train quantum circuits, promising quantum advantage.
problem High computational cost of quantum simulations and solving large-scale problems.
method Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) use classical optimizers to train parametrized quantum circuits.
result VQAs are a promising strategy for obtaining quantum advantage.
Convolutional networks outperform fully-connected ones in certain tasks.
problem Understanding the computational advantage of convolutional networks over fully-connected networks.
method Demonstrated a computational advantage through a specific problem class.
result Convolutional networks can solve certain problems that fully-connected networks cannot, even with gradient descent.
Quantum algorithms improve VaR and CVaR estimation for financial derivatives.
problem Quantum advantage in financial risk analysis of derivatives.
method Two quantum algorithms: QSP and QSP-based approach.
result QSP-based approach requires fewer quantum resources for the same accuracy.