Unified complexity bound for sampling logconcave distributions
problem Sampling arbitrary logconcave distributions
method In-and-Out algorithm with exponential lifting
result Nearly tight convergence rate
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “In-and-Out”
RATIO improves neural network robustness and explainability.
problem Neural networks' lack of robustness to adversarial changes and uncertainty on out-distribution samples.
method RATIO: Adversarial Training on In- and Out-distribution.
result RATIO leads to robust models with reliable confidence estimates on out-distribution samples.
Notes on Shapes of Polyhedramath.GT
These are course notes I wrote for my Fall 2013 graduate topics course on geometric structures, taught at ICERM. The notes rework many of proofs in William P. Thurston's beautiful but hard-to-understand paper, "Shapes of Polyhedra". A number of people, both in and out of the class, found these notes very useful and so …
New model predicts stock performance in large equity markets.
problem Predicting stock performance in large equity markets over long time horizons.
method Rank-based volatility stabilized models calibrated to empirical data.
result The model exhibits relative arbitrage and statistically fits empirical features.
Active learning improves ordering of items with contextual attributes.
problem Learning accurate item orderings from pairwise comparisons, especially when exhaustive comparisons are impractical.
method Proposes an active learning strategy that samples items to minimize expected ordering error, accounting for uncertainty in comparisons.
result Superior sample efficiency and generalization compared to non-contextual ranking approaches and active preference learning baselines.
In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and out-of-distribution samples. Our contributions include a) demonstrating and adapting to …
Regime switching volatility models provide a tractable method of modelling stochastic volatility. Currently the most popular method of regime switching calibration is the Hamilton filter. We propose using the Baum-Welch algorithm, an established technique from Engineering, to calibrate regime switching models instead. …
Kinetic exchange models have been successful in explaining the shape of the income/wealth distribution in the economies. However, such models usually make some ad-hoc assumptions when it comes to determining the savings factor. Here, we examine a few models in and out of the domain of standard neo-classical economics t…
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor…
New algorithm uniformly samples high-dimensional convex bodies efficiently.
problem Uniform sampling of high-dimensional convex bodies.
method Stochastic diffusion perspective to show contraction to the target distribution.
result Achieves state-of-the-art runtime complexity with strong guarantees on output.
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models and relying on a reasonable number of parameters. A successful joint calibration t…
The paper explores tail diversification in financial markets using entropy and mutual information.
problem Tail diversification in financial time series.
method Statistical independence through differential entropy and mutual information, using moments as contrast functions.
result Tail covariance matrix is a key driver of tail diversification.
We apply our statistically deterministic machine learning/clustering algorithm *K-means (recently developed in https://ssrn.com/abstract=2908286) to 10,656 published exome samples for 32 cancer types. A majority of cancer types exhibit mutation clustering structure. Our results are in-sample stable. They are also out-o…
Study confirms eurozone interbank market stability but finds higher collateral reuse.
problem Analyzing eurozone interbank market behavior and stability.
method Examined secured transactions data from ECB, tested stylized facts, measured network properties.
result Observed higher collateral reuse and network symmetry compared to unsecured markets.
This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio for various hedging horizons for a number of assets. The effectiveness of the dy…
We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution images in neural networks. We propose ODIN, a simple and effective method that does not require any change to a pre-trained neural network. Our method is based on the observation that using temperature scaling and adding small perturbations to the input can separ…
We introduce a novel Bayesian hybrid matrix factorisation model (HMF) for data integration, based on combining multiple matrix factorisation methods, that can be used for in- and out-of-matrix prediction of missing values. The model is very general and can be used to integrate many datasets across different entity type…
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theo…
High quality reconstruction with interventional C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) requires exact geometry information. If the geometry information is corrupted, e. g., by unexpected patient or system movement, the measured signal is misplaced in the backprojection operation. With prolonged acquisition times of…
Study the impact of overfitting on linear predictive models' performance.
problem Overfitting reduces the out-of-sample performance of linear predictive trading strategies.
method Computed in- and out-of-sample means and variances of PnLs to derive replication ratios.
result Replication ratio diminishes for complex strategies with many assets.
Normalizing flows fail to detect OOD data due to learning local pixel correlations.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution data in machine learning systems.
method Investigated why normalizing flows fail to distinguish between in- and out-of-distribution data, and modified flow architecture to improve OOD detection.
result Modifying flow architecture can improve OOD detection by biasing the flow towards learning semantic structure of the target data.
This paper studies the structure of the Japanese production network, which includes one million firms and five million supplier-customer links. This study finds that this network forms a tightly-knit structure with a core giant strongly connected component (GSCC) surrounded by IN and OUT components constituting two hal…
New variational approach to deep learning via gradient descent.
problem Non-robustness and poor out-of-distribution generalization in deep learning.
method Regularize variational neural networks using gradient descent's implicit bias.
result Strong in- and out-of-distribution performance achieved without additional hyperparameter tuning.
Financial markets for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are an important and rapidly-growing segment of commodities markets. Like other commodities markets, there is an inherent spatial structure to LNG markets, with different price dynamics for different points of delivery hubs. Certain hubs support highly liquid markets, a…
In self-organizing networks, topology and dynamics coevolve in a continuous feedback, without exogenous driving. The World Trade Network (WTN) is one of the few empirically well documented examples of self-organizing networks: its topology strongly depends on the GDP of world countries, which in turn depends on the str…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify pred…
New method learns causal models from data efficiently.
problem Learning Structural Causal Models from data is challenging.
method Amortized inference via Conditional Fixed-Point Iterations with transformer embeddings.
result Single model predicts causal mechanisms conditioned on data and graph.
Modular neural networks generalize better with less data.
problem Theoretical and practical understanding of how modularity improves neural network generalization.
method Theoretical analysis of sample complexity, development of a novel learning rule.
result Modular networks require fewer samples to generalize compared to nonmodular networks, especially in high-dimensional tasks.
Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks is essential for designing reliable and robust AI systems. Applications such as video surveillance for identifying suspicious activities are designed with deep neural networks (DNNs), but DNNs do not provide uncertainty estimates. Capturing reliable uncertainty estimates i…
The Reality Gameq-fin.GN
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. By varying the `reality map', which rel…
This work tackles exploding inverses in INNs, revealing and mitigating their numerical non-invertibility.
problem Exploding inverses in INNs cause numerical non-invertibility, leading to failures in various tasks.
method Derived bi-Lipschitz properties of INN building blocks, proposed regularizers for local invertibility, and stable INN designs for global invertibility.
result Bi-Lipschitz properties and stable INN designs are crucial for addressing numerical non-invertibility.
The Co-Pricing Factor Zooq-fin.PR
A study finds that only a few factors explain corporate bond risk, rendering extensive bond factor literature redundant.
problem The redundancy of extensive bond factor literature in explaining corporate bond risk premia.
method Bayesian Model Averaging Stochastic Discount Factor analysis of 18 quadrillion models.
result A Bayesian Model Averaging SDF explains risk premia better than low-dimensional models, with an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio of 1.5 to 1.8.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
Unified study of out-of-distribution generalization across 172 datasets.
problem Measuring and improving robustness of transfer learning models.
method Collect and fine-tune 31k models on 172 dataset pairs, varying architectures and settings.
result In- and out-of-distribution accuracies increase jointly but their relation is dataset-dependent.
FunBO uses LLMs to discover effective acquisition functions for Bayesian optimization.
problem Designing optimal acquisition functions for Bayesian optimization across diverse problems.
method FunBO leverages FunSearch, an LLM, to learn and evaluate new acquisition functions.
result FunBO discovers acquisition functions that generalize well and outperform existing methods.
PostNet predicts uncertainty without OOD data, improving OOD detection and calibration.
problem Accurate uncertainty estimation for safe systems.
method PostNet uses Normalizing Flows to learn individual posterior distributions over predicted probabilities.
result PostNet achieves state-of-the-art results in OOD detection and uncertainty calibration.
The problem of detecting whether a test sample is from in-distribution (i.e., training distribution by a classifier) or out-of-distribution sufficiently different from it arises in many real-world machine learning applications. However, the state-of-art deep neural networks are known to be highly overconfident in their…
Evolving intraday foreign exchange trading strategies utilizing multiple instruments price seriescs.NE
We propose a Genetic Programming architecture for the generation of foreign exchange trading strategies. The system's principal features are the evolution of free-form strategies which do not rely on any prior models and the utilization of price series from multiple instruments as input data. This latter feature consti…
We identify and validate a model for PCR in high dimensions, improving prediction guarantees.
problem Model identification and out-of-sample prediction in high-dimensional error-in-variables settings.
method Analysis of principal component regression (PCR) in fixed design settings, introducing a linear algebraic condition.
result Consistent model identification and improved out-of-sample prediction guarantees.
Novel neural network models quantify uncertainty for deep classifiers.
problem Deep networks' overconfidence and ignorance about uncertainty.
method Variational autoencoders and GANs generate out-of-distribution samples.
result Better uncertainty estimates for in- and out-of-distribution samples.
Modeling poverty transitions in India over 54 years, showing rising but persistent poverty.
problem Understanding and addressing poverty dynamics in India over long periods.
method Stochastic model of Geometric Brownian Motion with reallocation (RGBM).
result Annual poverty transitions are common, but poverty persists, especially among the poorest.
Generative multitask learning mitigates confounders causing targets.
problem Unobserved confounders causing targets but not inputs.
method Generative multitask learning (GMTL) modifies inference objective to remove joint target influence.
result Improved robustness to target shift across multitask learning methods.
New method calibrates uncertainty in molecular property predictions.
problem Uncalibrated uncertainty estimates in molecular property predictions.
method Message Passing Neural Networks with calibrated probabilistic predictive distribution.
result Accurate molecular formation energy predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty.
In-N-Out improves model robustness to out-of-distribution data.
problem Learning robust models with few in-distribution labeled examples.
method Pre-training with auxiliary information and self-training with pseudolabels.
result In-N-Out outperforms auxiliary inputs or outputs alone on both in-distribution and OOD error.
StyleNeRF generates high-resolution images with 3D consistency and style control.
problem Generating high-resolution images with fine details and 3D consistency.
method Integrates NeRF into a style-based generator for efficient high-resolution image synthesis.
result Synthesizes high-resolution images at interactive rates with high 3D consistency and style control.
Unified framework for machine learning interatomic potentials.
problem Designing and optimizing machine learning models for interatomic potentials.
method Unified mathematical framework unifying ACE and NequIP, providing a systematic design space.
result Demonstrated through ablation studies, critical design choices for high accuracy.
New insights into ridge regression with correlated data, improving risk prediction.
problem Understanding and predicting risk in ridge regression with correlated samples.
method Random matrix theory and free probability for asymptotic analysis; modified GCV estimator (CorrGCV) for unbiased prediction.
result GCV estimator fails for out-of-sample risk with correlated data; CorrGCV provides an unbiased estimator.
This paper improves federated learning by selecting between global and personalized models based on uncertainty.
problem Inherent heterogeneity and diverse data distributions in federated learning.
method Introduces a new approach to federated learning that models predictive uncertainties to select between global and personalized models.
result The model performs better on out-of-distribution data and on par with state-of-the-art personalized federated learning algorithms in standard scenarios.