The growth of the exhange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts {(LETFs)}. We study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces when the underlying ETF is modeled by a general class of local-stochastic volatility mo…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,341 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Implied leverage”
Empirical study of spot and implied volatility dynamics in equity markets.
problem Understanding the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility in equity markets.
method Analyzing observable quantities to extract instantaneous variance curves and studying their daily variations with spot returns.
result Non-linearities have significant effects on the pricing and hedging of volatility derivatives.
We correct a mistake in the published version of our paper. Our new conclusion is that the "implied leverage effect" for single stocks is underestimated by option markets for short maturities and overestimated for long maturities, while it is always overestimated for OEX options, except for the shortest maturities wher…
The Limits of Leverageq-fin.PM
Leverage limits returns due to proportional trading costs.
problem Understanding the upper limit of leverage in trading with proportional costs.
method Modeling a scenario with one safe and one risky asset, constant investment opportunities, and proportional trading costs.
result Beyond a critical leverage level, returns decline even if Sharpe ratios are held constant.
We revisit the ``Smile Dynamics'' problem, which consists in relating the implied leverage (i.e. the correlation of the at-the-money volatility with the returns of the underlying) and the skew of the option smile. The ratio between these two quantities, called ``Skew-Stickiness Ratio'' (SSR) by Bergomi (Smile Dynamics …
Derives token price process for AMM tokens, finds leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.
problem Derives token price process for AMM tokens.
method Derives CEV process for token price, derives closed-form option prices, introduces liquidity-adjusted Greeks.
result Token price process is CEV, with leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
We study in details the skew of stock option smiles, which is induced by the so-called leverage effect on the underlying -- i.e. the correlation between past returns and future square returns. This naturally explains the anomalous dependence of the skew as a function of maturity of the option. The market cap dependence…
Calibrates historical and implied correlations in energy markets.
problem Challenges in aligning historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles.
method Multiplicative multi-factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model combined with stochastic volatility from lifted Heston model, using Kemna-Vorst approximation and Fourier-based techniques.
result Remarkable joint historical and implied calibration fits on the German power market.
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
problem Capturing market skew in commodity futures with maturity effects.
method Non-parametric extension with leverage functions, calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation.
result Model accurately captures market smile and implied variance accumulation.
The implied volatility skew has received relatively little attention in the literature on short-term asymptotics for financial models with jumps, despite its importance in model selection and calibration. We rectify this by providing high-order asymptotic expansions for the at-the-money implied volatility skew, under a…
In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loos…
We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The Value-at-Risk constraint implies that when perceived risk is low, leverage is high…
Near-optimal tests and confidence sequences for non-parametric data.
problem Flexible statistical inference and decision-making with non-parametric data.
method Classic delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests with asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotically optimal type-I error and expected rejection time guarantees.
The paper introduces a new spectral error bound for column subset selection.
problem Improving the reconstruction error in column subset selection.
method Developed a novel analysis of spectral norm reconstruction for a randomized algorithm, introducing a sampling-dependent error bound.
result A new sampling distribution with probabilities proportional to the square root of statistical leverage scores outperforms uniform and leverage-based sampling.
iCOS: Option-Implied COS Methodq-fin.ST
iCOS method estimates risk-neutral densities and option prices without model assumptions.
problem Estimating risk-neutral densities and option prices without model assumptions.
method Leverages Fourier-cosine technique using option-implied cosine series coefficients, without model assumptions.
result Effective in extracting information from option prices under various market conditions.
New model prices crypto options by clustering market regimes and using implied volatility.
problem Inaccurate option pricing for volatile crypto markets.
method Time-regime clustering with Implied Stochastic Volatility Model (ISVM).
result MR-ISVM overcomes complexity and adapts to market dynamics.
Algorithm leverages low-rank relations between surrogate tasks for structured prediction.
problem Structured prediction with large or infinite-dimensional surrogate spaces.
method Trace norm regularization to leverage relationships between surrogate outputs without explicit coding/decoding functions.
result Our algorithm can improve generalization performance over previous methods.
This paper is devoted to the application of B-splines to volatility modeling, specifically the calibration of the leverage function in stochastic local volatility models and the parameterization of an arbitrage-free implied volatility surface calibrated to sparse option data. We use an extension of classical B-splines …
Study provides short-time expansions for LETF options using Lévy models.
problem Analyzing small-time behavior of LETF option prices with local volatility and jumps.
method Closed-form expressions for leading order terms of LETF option prices near expiration.
result Price of out-of-the-money LETF options is asymptotically equivalent to underlying ETF options with modified prices.
The Reactive Volatility Modelq-fin.ST
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the specific risk, and the "panic effect", which occurs whenever systematic risk become…
New neural operator calibrates LSV models faster and more accurately.
problem Calibrating LSV models is slow, noisy, and sequential.
method Developed a projection-consistent neural operator.
result Calibration latency reduced from 98.5 to 0.6 ms.
A new model for S&P 500 and VIX options pricing and calibration.
problem Calibrating and pricing S&P 500 and VIX options with a 4-factor path-dependent volatility model.
method Pathwise neural network approximation of VIX, leveraging Markovianity of the 4-factor model.
result The model accurately fits S&P 500 implied volatilities and reproduces VIX option smiles.
This paper proposes a new model for SPX and VIX derivatives markets.
problem Joint calibration of SPX and VIX markets.
method Composite change of time structure in a time-changed Lévy model.
result Explicit characteristic function and pricing formula derived.
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting. Three examples of random time-changes are provided and the implied volatility sur…
A model explains why 4% is a safe retirement withdrawal rate.
problem Determining a safe withdrawal rate for American retirees.
method Discrete-time model of stochastic returns on assets and their moments.
result The 4% rule emerges from adjusting high expected rates of return for various risks.
Paper proposes CIV estimator for categorical instruments in small sample settings.
problem Estimation with categorical instruments in settings with few observations per category.
method CIV estimator leveraging regularization assumption for latent categorical variable.
result CIV estimator is asymptotically normal, efficient, and semiparametrically efficient under homoskedasticity.
This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.
problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.
Study efficient pricing for barrier options in stochastic-volatility models with leverage correction.
problem Barrier options are sensitive to volatility dynamics, especially leverage, making accurate pricing difficult.
method Developed a class of continuous-path stochastic-clock volatility models and a systematic small-ρ expansion to incorporate leverage.
result Transform-only pricing formulas for barrier derivatives are fast and numerically stable, even for negative leverage.
Paper optimizes portfolios for absolute return funds with constraints.
problem Optimizing portfolios with constraints for absolute return funds.
method Stochastic control framework with numerical solution using kernel-based collocation method.
result Leverage is necessary to achieve the target level.
The paper finds optimal ways to combine ETFs to minimize costs for investors.
problem Finding the best combination of ETFs to match a target gearing ratio at the lowest expense.
method Linear programming and convex geometry to prove the two-fund theorem for ETFs.
result The cheapest way to achieve a target gearing ratio is by combining the two nearest undominated ETF products.
Combines expert models using Kullback-Leibler divergence to create a combined model.
problem Combining expert views on stochastic processes.
method Minimizes weighted Kullback-Leibler divergence to create a barycentre model.
result Existence and uniqueness of the barycentre model with explicit representation.
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
A generative adversarial network approach to calibration of local stochastic volatility modelsq-fin.CP
The paper proposes a neural network method to calibrate LSV models without interpolation.
problem Calibrating LSV models with market option prices using neural networks.
method Parametrizing leverage function with neural networks and learning parameters from market prices; using deep hedging for variance reduction.
result The method accurately calibrates LSV models and outperforms interpolation methods.
The flip graph and arc complex of a surface are shown to have finite rigidity.
problem Finite rigidity of flip graph and arc complex for surfaces.
method Embedding the flip graph in the arc complex and leveraging finite rigidity of the flip graph.
result Finite rigidity of the flip graph implies finite rigidity of the arc complex.
New proof shows 11 measurements needed for phase retrieval in 4D complex space.
problem Determining the minimal number of intensity measurements for phase retrieval in 4D complex space.
method Leveraged characteristic classes and cohomology groups from differential topology.
result Proved that 11 is the exact minimum number of measurements required for phase retrieval in 4D complex space.
Matrix completion, i.e., the exact and provable recovery of a low-rank matrix from a small subset of its elements, is currently only known to be possible if the matrix satisfies a restrictive structural constraint---known as {\em incoherence}---on its row and column spaces. In these cases, the subset of elements is sam…
From Arbitrage Removal to Density Extraction: A Model-Free Framework for Short-Dated Optionsq-fin.CP
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
problem Arbitrage and bid-ask spread issues in short-dated options.
method Develops ARIES for filtering static arbitrage and SEDEx for density extraction.
result Robust density extraction across various market conditions and volatility smiles construction.
Study evaluates risk in options using volatility surface projections.
problem Risk assessment of options due to their non-linear price behavior and volatility fluctuations.
method Parametric surface projection method for implied volatility.
result Enhanced risk evaluation through dynamic volatility surface analysis.
Algorithm estimates nonparametric mixtures from grouped data.
problem Estimating identifiable nonparametric mixture models from grouped observations.
method Oracle inequality for weighted kernel density estimators and general consistency result.
result Consistent estimation of mixture components from grouped observations.
New method trains Markov kernels for efficient sampling.
problem Efficient sampling from complex probability distributions.
method Adversarial learning of involutive Metropolis-Hastings kernels.
result Minimizes total variation distance to empirical data.
This paper provides a neural approach to represent option implied information.
problem Link between implied density and volatility for arbitrage-free modeling.
method Minimalist perspective on implied volatility, neural representation with arbitrage constraints.
result Shallow feedforward network with a single hidden layer effectively approximates implied density and volatility.
New method for summarizing Bayesian mixture models using sliced Wasserstein distances.
problem Estimating the mixing measure in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models.
method Decision-theoretic approach using sliced Wasserstein distances for Gaussian mixtures.
result Effective estimation of the mixing measure and mixture density.
We extend Dupire's formula for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
problem Deriving formulas for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
method Generalizations of Dupire's formula for stochastic drift and local volatility.
result Validated the limits of the generalized Dupire formulae for specific cases.
This paper examines Bachelier implied volatility at extreme strikes.
problem Investigates appropriate implied volatility extrapolation at extreme strikes.
method Compares Bachelier and Black-Scholes models, focusing on normal distribution and vanilla options.
result Bachelier implied variance grows at most linearly in log-moneyness, similar to Black-Scholes.
Combines VI and EP for better Gaussian process hyperparameter learning.
problem Improving hyperparameter learning in Gaussian processes for better performance.
method Hybrid training procedure combining Variational Inference (VI) for posterior inference and Expectation Propagation (EP) for hyperparameter learning.
result The hybrid training procedure provides a better learning objective and generalizes better than using only VI or EP.
Exact relationships found between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
problem Understanding relationships between implied volatilities and swaps.
method Analyzes exact relationships between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
result Exact relationships between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
Machine learning approximates implied volatility and dividend yield for American options.
problem Challenges in extracting implied information from American options due to computational costs.
method Employing a data-driven machine learning approach, specifically a Calibration Neural Network (CaNN), to estimate implied volatility and dividend yield efficiently.
result Machine learning can be used to estimate implied volatility and dividend yield for American options efficiently.