arXiv research

Proposes a new metric for financial risk based on volatility's local deviations.

This paper proposes a new framework for financial risk that considers predictability rather than volatility.

Study shows a specific Carnot group violates a curvature exponent bound.

New groups found with critical exponents close to but less than max.

Kurdyka-Lojasiewicz (KL) exponent plays an important role in estimating the convergence rate of many contemporary first-order methods. In particular, a KL exponent of $\frac12$ for a suitable potential function is related to local linear convergence. Nevertheless, KL exponent is in general extremely hard to estimate. I…

New proof for certain groups in higher dimensions.

Extends Nash-Kuiper theorem to higher Hölder exponents.

In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average (DMA) and genera…

Study of deep neural networks using finite-time Lyapunov exponents.

Study proves boundedness of operators in variable exponent Morrey spaces.

Proves critical exponent for $Θ-$positive representations in discrete subgroups.

Constructs free semigroups with critical exponents close to but less than ambient groups.

We study the asymptotic behavior of the Lyapunov exponent in a meromorphic family of random products of matrices in SL(2, C), as the parameter converges to a pole. We show that the blow-up of the Lyapunov exponent is governed by a quantity which can be interpreted as the non-Archimedean Lyapunov exponent of the family.…

Study critical exponents in normal subgroups of higher rank Lie groups.

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…

New bounds on geodesic dimension and curvature exponent in Carnot groups.

Study approximates top Lyapunov exponents for surface mapping classes.

Study on curvature exponent of sub-Finsler Heisenberg groups, proving N_min ≥ 5.

We study the relationship between the Lyapunov exponents of the geodesic flow of a closed negatively curved manifold and the geometry of the manifold. We show that if each periodic orbit of the geodesic flow has exactly one Lyapunov exponent on the unstable bundle then the manifold has constant negative curvature. We a…

In this paper, we study the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz (KL) exponent, an important quantity for analyzing the convergence rate of first-order methods. Specifically, we develop various calculus rules to deduce the KL exponent of new (possibly nonconvex and nonsmooth) functions formed from functions with known KL exponents. In …

Paper analyzes error exponent in agnostic PAC learning.

In previous work, the author fully classified orbit closures in genus three with maximally many (four) zero Lyapunov exponents of the Kontsevich-Zorich cocycle. In this paper, we prove that there are no higher dimensional orbit closures in genus three with any zero Lyapunov exponents. Furthermore, if a Teichmüller curv…

In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains "Black Swan" effects, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail contribution…

Study critical exponents on hyperbolic surfaces with long boundaries using Weil-Petersson measures.

Optimizes trading returns using Hurst exponent and Q-learning.

We apply the Hurst exponent idea for investigation of DJIA index time-series data. The behavior of the local Hurst exponent prior to drastic changes in financial series signal is analyzed. The optimal length of the time-window over which this exponent can be calculated in order to make some meaningful predictions is di…

We study the Bouchaud-Mézard model on a regular random network. By assuming adiabaticity and independency, and utilizing the generalized central limit theorem and the Tauberian theorem, we derive an equation that determines the exponent of the probability distribution function of the wealth as $x\rightarrow \infty$. Th…

The common assumption of universal behavior in stock market data can sometimes lead to false conclusions. In statistical physics, the Hurst exponents characterizing long-range correlations are often closely related to universal exponents. We show, that in the case of time series of the traded value, these Hurst exponen…

mfBm models and forecasts volatility with different Hurst exponents and correlations.

We consider Lyapunov exponents for flat bundles over hyperbolic curves defined via parallel transport over the geodesic flow. We refine a lower bound obtained by Eskin, Kontsevich, Moeller and Zorich showing that the sum of the first k exponents is greater or equal than the sum of the degree of any rank k holomorphic s…

In this paper we propose a new approach to estimation of the tail exponent in financial stock markets. We begin the study with the finite sample behavior of the Hill estimator under α-stable distributions. Using large Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the Hill estimator overestimates the true tail exponent and can …

This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of "activity" and of "size" for companies included in the FTSE 100. The "size" of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The "activity" is measured with several quantities related to trades (transaction value per trade, transaction val…

In this paper, we show that an infinite 2-group of bounded exponent cannot act faithfully and smoothly on compact manifolds.

Classifies GL(2,R)-invariant subvarieties with zero Lyapunov exponents.

Python package for estimating Hurst exponent in fBm.

We describe all the situations in which the Kontsevich-Zorich cocycle has zero Lyapunov exponents. Confirming a conjecture of Forni, Matheus, and Zorich, this only occurs when the cocycle satisfies additional geometric constraints. We also describe the real Lie groups which can appear in the monodromy of the Kontsevich…

The paper finds free semigroups in dense subgroups of Lie groups with critical exponents arbitrarily close to the subgroup's.

We show that for many strata of Abelian differentials in low genus the sum of Lyapunov exponents for the Teichmueller geodesic flow is the same for all Teichmueller curves in that stratum, hence equal to the sum of Lyapunov exponents for the whole stratum. This behavior is due to the disjointness property of Teichmuell…

The Chirikov standard map and the 2D Froeschlé map are investigated. A few thousand values of the Hurst exponent (HE) and the maximal Lyapunov exponent (mLE) are plotted in a mixed space of the nonlinear parameter versus the initial condition. Both characteristic exponents reveal remarkably similar structures in this s…

This paper determines the flexible exponent for non-geometric 3-manifolds.

This letter investigates the dynamic relationship between market efficiency, liquidity, and multifractality of Bitcoin. We find that before 2013 liquidity is low and the Hurst exponent is less than 0.5, indicating that the Bitcoin time series is anti-persistent. After 2013, as liquidity increased, the Hurst exponent ro…

We study the set of critical exponents of discrete groups acting on regular trees. We prove that for every real number $δ$ between $0$ and $\frac{1}{2}\log q$, there is a discrete subgroup $Γ$ acting without inversion on a $(q+1)$-regular tree whose critical exponent is equal to $δ$. Explicit construction of edge-index…

The study examines the normal growth exponent of submanifolds in negatively curved manifolds.

Study on nonlinear elliptic equations with variable exponents, proving existence and multiplicity of solutions.

P2P lending activities have grown rapidly and have caused the huge and complex networks of debtor-creditor relationships. The aim of this study was to study the underlying structural characteristics of networks formed by debtor-creditor relationships. According attributes of P2P lending, this paper model the networks o…

A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in $α$ exponents diff…

Paper studies distributed learning with limited communication bits, achieving optimal error exponents.

We have applied the Zipf method to extract the $ζ'$ exponent for seven financial indices (DAX, FTSE; DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P500; Hang-Seng and Nikkei 225), after having translated the signals into a text based on two letters. We follow considerations based on the signal Hurst exponent and the notion of a time dependent Zipf …