We investigate the use of the Hurst exponent, dynamically computed over a moving time-window, to evaluate the level of stability/instability of financial firms. Financial firms bailed-out as a consequence of the 2007-2010 credit crisis show a neat increase with time of the generalized Hurst exponent in the period prece…
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48 results for “Hurst stability”
In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average (DMA) and genera…
This study examines Bitcoin market dynamics and long memory properties.
problem Investigating statistical properties of Bitcoin market.
method Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method to measure long-range dependence.
result Hurst exponent changes significantly during the first years of Bitcoin's existence, stabilizing in recent times.
Adaptive estimation of alpha-Stable distribution and Hurst exponent for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series require adaptive models to avoid bias.
method Moving estimator with exponentially weakening weights of old values, optimized using EMA of absolute central moments.
result Continuous adaptive estimation of alpha-Stable distribution and Hurst exponent for market stability evaluation.
Optimizes market-neutral portfolios using fractal models.
problem Improving stability and performance of market-neutral portfolios.
method Fractal walk model of returns, covariance matrix optimization, Hurst stability analysis.
result Portfolio system outperforms benchmark with higher risk-adjusted returns.
Study tests market efficiency using complex dynamics in Italian and Greek electricity markets.
problem Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in electricity markets.
method Non-linear tools including complexity measures, entropy, and conditional volatility.
result Complexity and dimensionality of electricity market dynamics were measured.
Simulating integrated Volterra square-root processes and Volterra Heston models via Inverse Gaussianq-fin.MF
A new simulation method for Volterra processes improves convergence for rough kernels.
problem Simulating Volterra processes with singular kernels.
method iVi (integrated Volterra implicit) scheme based on Inverse Gaussian distribution.
result The iVi scheme achieves weak convergence with few time steps, especially for rough kernels.
Study proves existence, uniqueness, and stability for specific stochastic Volterra equations.
problem Analyzing existence, uniqueness, and stability of affine stochastic Volterra equations with -kernels.
method Approximations with -kernels, stability result, duality argument, deterministic Riccati--Volterra integral equation.
result Established weak uniqueness for the equations using Fourier--Laplace transform and a deterministic Riccati--Volterra integral equation.
Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock marketsq-fin.ST
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…
On the rate of convergence of estimating the Hurst parameter of rough stochastic volatility modelsq-fin.ST
Paper extends a method to estimate Hurst parameter for rough stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating Hurst parameter of rough stochastic volatility models from discrete observations.
method Extends a scale-invariant estimator to a general nonlinear function.
result Consistent estimation of Hurst parameter for a wide class of rough stochastic volatility models.
A new model adapts Hurst parameter in real-time for volatility forecasting.
problem Capturing volatility dynamics and clustering in financial markets.
method Rough Bergomi model with EWMA-driven time-dependent Hurst parameter.
result Empirical validation shows superior performance in diverse asset classes.
Optimizing Returns Using the Hurst Exponent and Q Learning on Momentum and Mean Reversion Strategiesq-fin.ST
Optimizes trading returns using Hurst exponent and Q-learning.
problem Maximizing returns from momentum and mean reversion strategies.
method Classifies assets using Hurst exponent and uses Q-learning to improve trading algorithms.
result Trading with Hurst exponent can achieve higher returns but at higher risk.
mfBm models and forecasts volatility with different Hurst exponents and correlations.
problem Modeling and forecasting volatility with varying Hurst exponents and correlations.
method Multivariate fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) with component-wise Hurst exponents, novel estimation method, time-reversibility test.
result mfBm reduces forecasting errors compared to a one-dimensional model and outperforms HAR model.
The paper evaluates integrals for fBm with various Hurst indices.
problem Evaluating integrals for stochastic processes with fractional Brownian motion for different Hurst indices.
method Analytic continuation from complex analysis to extend integral domain.
result Integral formulas for fBm with Hurst indices are derived.
Paper estimates Hurst parameter from implied volatilities.
problem Estimating Hurst parameter from implied volatilities.
method Uses covariance between asset return and realized volatility, and applies limit theorems for stochastic volatility models.
result Direct relation between covariance and slope of at-the-money implied volatility established.
This study examines Bitcoin's market efficiency, liquidity, and multifractality over time.
problem Investigating market efficiency, liquidity, and multifractality of Bitcoin.
method Dynamic analysis of Bitcoin's time series data, including Hurst exponent and multifractal degree.
result Market efficiency improves as liquidity increases, but multifractality remains anti-persistent.
A new model captures multifractal volatility in stock returns.
problem Capturing multifractal volatility in stock returns.
method Introduced mLog S-fBM model, defined mS-fBM, and developed calibration procedure.
result Model captures multifractal behavior in stock returns, validating on real data.
A new model captures multifractal volatility in stock returns.
problem Capturing multifractal volatility in stock returns.
method Introduced mLog S-fBM model, defined mS-fBM, and developed calibration procedure.
result Validated model on synthetic and real data, showing multifractal behavior.
Sector-wise analysis of Indian stock market: Long and short-term risk and stability analysisq-fin.ST
The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.
problem Investment risk and stability in Indian stock sectors.
method Sector-wise multifractal analysis of Bombay Stock Exchange, India, over short and long time scales.
result Long-term investment in stable sectors is more profitable, while sectors with large fluctuations may lead to downturns.
Python package for estimating Hurst exponent in fBm.
problem Estimating Hurst exponent in fractional Brownian motion.
method Whittle's likelihood method applied to fractional Gaussian noise.
result Implementation achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and speed.
Rough volatility of Bitcoinq-fin.ST
Study finds Bitcoin volatility exhibits roughness, not constant over time.
problem Investigating roughness in Bitcoin volatility.
method Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and shuffled time series analysis.
result Bitcoin volatility exhibits roughness (generalized Hurst exponent < 1/2).
Researchers define a limit for fractional Brownian motion as Hurst parameter approaches zero.
problem Defining a limit for fractional Brownian motion with zero Hurst parameter.
method Developed a Gaussian random distribution and log-correlated random field as limits.
result Fractional Brownian motion converges to a Gaussian random distribution when Hurst parameter approaches zero.
Paper defines multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion under volatility uncertainty.
problem Volatility uncertainty in fractional Brownian motion.
method Definition and study of multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (G-fBm) with Hurst index.
result First results on stochastic calculus for G-fBm with Hurst index > 0.5.
Extended speculation game improves Hurst exponent of financial time series.
problem Anti-persistent market price behavior resulting in small Hurst exponent.
method Introduced a perturbative part to price change considering additional effects.
result Improved Hurst exponent value of financial time series.
Deep learning the Hurst parameter of linear fractional processes and assessing its reliabilitystat.ML
Deep learning improves Hurst parameter estimation for fractional processes.
problem Estimating the Hurst parameter in fractional stochastic processes.
method Training Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks on extensive datasets of fBm, fOU, and lfsm processes.
result LSTM outperforms traditional methods in fBm and fOU processes but has limited accuracy on lfsm.
We apply the Hurst exponent idea for investigation of DJIA index time-series data. The behavior of the local Hurst exponent prior to drastic changes in financial series signal is analyzed. The optimal length of the time-window over which this exponent can be calculated in order to make some meaningful predictions is di…
The common assumption of universal behavior in stock market data can sometimes lead to false conclusions. In statistical physics, the Hurst exponents characterizing long-range correlations are often closely related to universal exponents. We show, that in the case of time series of the traded value, these Hurst exponen…
Study confirms rough volatility in S&P500 options, with Hurst parameter 0.3.
problem Confirming rough volatility in financial markets using option data.
method Analyzed implied volatility approximations of spot volatility using S&P500 options.
result Found Hurst parameter of 0.3 for S&P500 options, slightly larger than historical data.
This paper investigates the relationship between price multiscaling and volatility roughness in financial markets.
problem The inability of traditional models to capture financial stylized facts like volatility roughness and multiscaling.
method Simulation experiments and real data analysis using a rough volatility model.
result The rough volatility model fails to reproduce the multiscaling features of real data, indicating a negative interplay between multiscaling and volatility roughness.
Noise-resilient method improves Hurst exponent estimation accuracy in noisy data.
problem Noise degrades accuracy of Hurst exponent estimation methods.
method Noise-Controlled ALPHEE (NC-ALPHEE) using wavelet multi-scale analysis and neural network combination.
result NC-ALPHEE consistently outperforms existing techniques in noisy conditions.
The paper examines how the Hurst exponent can reveal market regimes.
problem Determining market efficiency and behavior using time series data.
method Kurtosis analysis and Hurst exponent to identify market regimes.
result The Hurst exponent can distinguish between market regimes.
Multifractal Features in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Marketscond-mat.stat-mech
The multifractal behavior for tick data of prices is investigated in Korean financial market. Using the rescaled range analysis(R/S analysis), we show the multifractal nature of returns for the won-dollar exchange rate and the KOSPI. We also estimate the Hurst exponent and the generalized th-order Hurst exponent in …
Algorithm identifies fractal system's scaling exponents in high dimensions.
problem Statistical identification of Hurst distribution in high-dimensional fractal systems.
method Wavelet random matrices, modified spectral clustering, model selection.
result Algorithm consistently estimates Hurst distribution in moderately high dimensions.
We empirically analyze the most volatile component of the electricity price time series from two North-American wholesale electricity markets. We show that these time series exhibit fluctuations which are not described by a Brownian Motion, as they show multi-scaling, high Hurst exponents and sharp price movements. We …
Study finds roughness in volatility despite diffusive instantaneous volatility.
problem Determining the roughness of volatility in financial assets.
method Non-parametric method based on normalized -th variation for estimating roughness of sample paths.
result Realized volatility exhibits rough behavior with a significantly smaller Hurst exponent than instantaneous volatility.
Expanding the rough Heston model in q-fin.MF
Expanding the rough Heston model in
problem Analyzing the dependence of the fractional Riccati equation on the Hurst parameter
method Deriving a Taylor expansion of the Riccati solution in
result Local uniform convergence and analyticity of the fractional Riccati solution
We consider a market with fractional Brownian motion with stochastic integrals generated by the Riemann sums. We found that this market is arbitrage free if admissible strategies that are using observations with an arbitrarily small delay. Moreover, we found that this approach eliminates the discontinuity of the stocha…
Study examines how COVID-19 affected stock and crypto market efficiency.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on market efficiency of different asset classes.
method Analysis of price returns, absolute returns, and volatility increments in stock and cryptocurrency markets.
result Market efficiency varied by asset class and market, with some time series showing gradual decline over time.
Sharp bounds on weak convergence rate for rough volatility models.
problem Understanding the convergence rate in discretizing rough volatility models.
method Analyzing general and linear models to derive bounds.
result Sharper bound of \(H + 1/2\) for linear models.
An exclusion particle model is considered as a highly simplified model of a limit order market. Its price behavior reproduces the well known crossover from over-diffusion (Hurst exponent H>1/2) to diffusion (H=1/2) when the time horizon is increased, provided that orders are allowed to be canceled. For early times a ma…
A new option pricing model uses a time-varying Hurst exponent for more accurate financial predictions.
problem Inaccurate modeling of financial time series due to constant memory parameter limitations.
method Modeling price fluctuations with multifractional Brownian motion and deriving option pricing formula.
result Empirical performance shows the multifractional model fits market quotes better than standard models.
Estimates Hurst exponent of log-volatility using KS statistic, addressing serial correlation in financial data.
problem Estimating Hurst exponent of log-volatility in financial time series with serial correlation.
method Proposes a random permutation procedure to remove serial correlation, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for distribution-based estimation.
result Establishes the asymptotic variance of the estimator and reveals statistically significant hierarchy of roughness in volatility measures.
The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard …
We report an empirical study of the Ibovespa index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange in which we detect the existence of long-range correlations. To analyze our data we introduce a rescaled variant of the usual Detrended Fluctuation Analysis that allows us to obtain the Hurst exponent through a one-parameter fitting. We …
Relative cluster entropy for power-law correlated sequencescond-mat.stat-mech
A measure called relative cluster entropy distinguishes between correlated and uncorrelated sequences.
problem Distinguishing between sequences with different correlation degrees.
method Minimum relative entropy principle applied to cluster partitions of power-law correlated sequences.
result Optimal Hurst exponents are selected for market price series, indicating non-markovianity.
This study examines long-term memory in European financial markets post-2008 crisis.
problem Long-term memory in European financial markets post-2008 crisis.
method DFA and R/S methods to measure Hurst exponents and long-range dependence.
result The 2008 financial crisis had a different impact on fixed income and stock markets.
A model explains stock returns and volatility using multifractal and rough components.
problem Reconciling multifractal stock returns and rough index volatilities.
method Nested factor model with multifractal and rough volatility components.
result The model explains stock index Hurst exponents larger than individual stock exponents.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
problem Varying results from long-range memory estimators in financial markets.
method Burst and inter-burst duration statistical analysis of limit order book data.
result The new method provides a more reliable evaluation of the Hurst exponent.