Corrects mortality data anomalies for longevity risk assessment in Solvency 2 framework.
problem Impact of mortality data anomalies on longevity risk assessment in Solvency 2 framework.
method Developed and extended an approach to correct mortality tables for three countries, using historical data and stochastic models.
result Corrected mortality tables improve data quality and slightly decrease the Solvency Capital Requirement.
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no consensus. It is difficult to simultaneously account for cohort effects and age-adj…
Jointly models cause-of-death mortality rates across multiple countries and genders.
problem Modeling cause-of-death mortality rates in a multinational setting.
method Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP) with Kronecker-structured kernels and latent factors.
result Efficiently captures heterogeneity and dependence across different factor inputs.
Develops a GP framework for age and year-specific mortality surfaces.
problem Learning the covariance structure of age and year-specific mortality surfaces.
method Genetic programming algorithm to search for the most expressive GP kernel.
result Reveals the presence/absence of cohort effects in different populations.
Paper uses neural networks to calibrate Lee-Carter models for multiple populations.
problem Calibrating Lee-Carter models for multiple populations with neural networks.
method Developed neural network architectures to fit Lee-Carter and Poisson Lee-Carter models simultaneously.
result Smooth and less sensitive parameter estimates, improved forecasting performance.
Paper assesses how pandemic data impacts mortality models.
problem Impact of pandemic data on mortality projections.
method Calibrated Li & Lee model with transformed weekly data.
result Impact quantified, scenarios generated for future mortality.
Machine learning improves mortality prediction for elderly Medicare patients.
problem Improving mortality prediction for elderly Medicare patients using limited data.
method Developed and tested machine learning classifiers on Medicare claims data.
result Machine learning classifiers outperform logistic regression, especially with improved feature sets.
Study improves mortality prediction in hospital patients using comprehensive feature engineering.
problem Accurate prediction of all-cause in-hospital mortality in healthcare.
method Comprehensive feature engineering approach using vital signs, laboratory results, and demographic data.
result Random Forest model achieved highest performance with AUC of 0.94, significantly outperforming other models.
Study improves mortality prediction in ICU patients using feature engineering and 1D CNN.
problem Improving mortality prediction in ICU patients with high-dimensional, imbalanced, and missing data.
method Feature engineering, 1D Convolutional Neural Network (1D CNN), traditional machine learning algorithms.
result Best AUC of 0.848 achieved with 1D CNN model.
Enhanced mortality prediction model using EHR and free-text data.
problem Predicting one-year mortality in AMI patients.
method Used deep learning models with word embedding features from free-text discharge summaries.
result Significant improvement in model performance (92.89% accuracy, 0.928 F-measure).
Study builds machine learning models to predict ICU patients' one-year mortality.
problem Improving mortality prediction accuracy in ICU patients with heart disease.
method Developed and evaluated various machine learning models using MIMIC-III database.
result Best models achieved 85.12% prediction accuracy and AUC of 0.901.
Cancer patients admitted to ICU had improved survival over 10 years.
problem To assess changes in survival of cancer patients admitted to ICU over 10 years.
method Retrospective analysis of MIMIC-III database, adjusted for confounders using logistic regression.
result Cancer patients had significantly lower 28-day and 1-year mortality rates over 10 years.
Study develops an interpretable model for early mortality prediction in elderly MODS patients.
problem High mortality risk in elderly patients with MODS, unsatisfactory current scoring systems.
method Used eXtreme Gradient Boosting with SHapley Additive exPlanations on MIMIC-III, eICU-CRD, and PLAGH-S datasets.
result Interpretable model outperforms baseline models and clinical scores in predicting hospital mortality.
Paper proposes robust method to detect risk heterogeneity across ethnic groups.
problem Detecting risk heterogeneity across ethnic groups in ICU studies.
method Proposes a robust framework using Neyman orthogonality for inference.
result Demonstrates improved inferential stability and reduced bias compared to standard methods.
Extends Aff-Wild database for affect recognition in real-world settings.
problem Complex human emotional states in real-world settings.
method Developed deep neural architectures with attention mechanism for emotion recognition.
result Improved performance in emotion recognition using Aff-Wild2.
Two new models forecast multiple subpopulations' mortality, outperforming existing methods.
problem Modeling mortality patterns and trajectories in related populations.
method Adapted multivariate functional principal component analysis techniques.
result The second proposed model outperforms existing methods in forecast accuracy.
Content based image retrieval, a technique which uses visual contents of image to search images from large scale image databases according to users' interests. This paper provides a comprehensive survey on recent technology used in the area of content based face image retrieval. Nowadays digital devices and photo shari…
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under the generalised linear modelling framework. In this paper we approach the proble…
Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-…
Database of Irish parliamentary speeches from 1919-2013.
problem Storing and analyzing historical parliamentary debates.
method Downloaded speeches from official website, processed, parsed, and matched with TD and minister data.
result 4.5 million speeches from 1,178 TDs in a single database.
Deep learning model predicts human emotions in real-world settings.
problem Automatic emotional state assessment in natural settings.
method End-to-end deep neural architecture (AffWildNet) combining convolutional and recurrent layers.
result AffWildNet achieved state-of-the-art results on Aff-Wild Challenge.
The study uses transfer learning to compare surgical outcomes across racial/ethnic subgroups.
problem Difficulty in comparing surgical outcomes due to racial/ethnic and geographic differences.
method Causal inference framework and transfer learning to incorporate data from multiple populations.
result Racial and ethnic differences in surgical outcomes are found, with non-Hispanic Black patients experiencing wide variability.
Gaussian process improves nowcasting of COVID-19 deaths.
problem Correcting for delays in reporting daily deaths.
method Flexible Gaussian process model with latent variables.
result Gaussian process nowcasts outperform other methods.
DeepSOFA acuity score uses deep learning for ICU patient severity assessment.
problem Static severity scoring methods are time-consuming and inaccurate for ICU patients.
method Temporal measurements and interpretable deep learning models.
result DeepSOFA yields significantly more accurate predictions of in-hospital mortality.
Develops a risk score to assist ECMO planning for critically ill patients with viral or unspecified pneumonia.
problem Lack of a risk score to guide ECMO planning for critically ill patients.
method Leverages machine learning to develop the PEER score.
result PEER score predicts mortality and decompensation in patients eligible for ECMO.
New deep learning method validated across multiple sleep staging databases.
problem Improving automatic sleep scoring accuracy across different datasets.
method Ensemble of local models using deep learning for automatic sleep staging.
result Good general performance compared to human experts and state-of-the-art methods.
The paper develops stochastic models for mortality rates using infinite dimensional processes.
problem Uncertainty in demographic projections of future mortality rates.
method Forward mortality models driven by Wiener process and Poisson random measure.
result Consistency conditions for forward mortality improvements and mortality rates.
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
problem Complexity of annuitization decisions due to longevity risk and labor force participation.
method Stochastic control and optimal stopping framework with habit formation and endogenous labor supply.
result Rich sequence of retirement dynamics, including defensive and aggressive labor supply phases.
Causal thinking improves healthcare decisions from EHRs.
problem Shortcuts in data lead to biased healthcare decisions.
method Step-by-step framework for valid decision making from EHRs.
result Valid decision making requires careful analysis of EHR data.
Paper presents a new Wi-Fi RSS and geomagnetic field database for indoor localization and trajectory estimation.
problem Indoor localization and trajectory estimation challenges.
method Convolutional neural network (CNN) for RSS data and LSTM network for geomagnetic field intensity.
result CNN and LSTM networks show feasibility for localization and trajectory estimation.
Analyzes COVID-19 data to predict mortality, forecast spread, and optimize resource allocation.
problem Challenges in patient triage, treatment, and care management during the pandemic.
method Integrated four-step approach combining descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.
result Optimized resource allocation and informed policy decisions.
PyODDS automates outlier detection for new data sources.
problem Manual outlier detection is inefficient and domain-specific.
method Automated end-to-end system with Apache Spark and database support.
result PyODDS optimizes outlier detection pipelines automatically.
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
problem Insurers struggle to detect long-range dependence in their mortality data.
method Cointegration techniques applied to mixed fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) to capture long-range dependence.
result Cointegration brings long-range dependence information from national mortality data to insurers' models.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
problem Lack of appropriate models for valuing and managing mortality securities with long-range dependence.
method Proposes a novel class of Volterra mortality models that incorporate LRD, derived in closed-form solution.
result Models provide flexibility and tractability for valuing and hedging mortality-related products.
Deep neural network features model human image categorization.
problem Modeling human categorization using natural images.
method Used convolutional neural network features to model human behavior.
result Representations from deep neural networks can model human natural image classifications.
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
problem Limited ability of existing mortality models to capture individual complexity.
method Developed a four-component framework for individual vitality dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved analytical and practical outcomes in life insurance and lifetime decision-making.
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of future mortality intensities, or {\it hazard rates}. In this paper, we develop a …
Drug-drug interaction (DDI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and a subject of intense scientific interest. Biomedical literature mining can aid DDI research by extracting evidence for large numbers of potential interactions from published literature and clinical databases. Though DDI is investigated in domai…
RNN beats Lee-Carter in forecasting mortality rates.
problem Forecasting mortality rates across different demographics.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network trained on multiple countries, ages, and sexes.
result RNN model outperforms the Lee-Carter model in mortality rate forecasting.
Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can be used for differentiating the different causes of death in mortality modeling…
Health care is one of the most exciting frontiers in data mining and machine learning. Successful adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) created an explosion in digital clinical data available for analysis, but progress in machine learning for healthcare research has been difficult to measure because of the absen…
Study historical cholera epidemics and simulate long-term mortality impacts.
problem Long-term impacts of mortality shocks on longevity.
method Historical analysis of cholera epidemics and mathematical modeling of stochastic Individual-Based models.
result Simulated long-term mortality impacts following a mortality shock.
Satellite images predict U.S. county mortality rates.
problem Predicting mortality rates in U.S. counties using satellite imagery.
method Convolutional neural network trained on crude mortality rates, learned features interpreted using Shapley Additive Feature Explanations.
result Predicted mortality from satellite images correlated strongly with true mortality rates (Pearson r=0.72).
Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.
problem Identify clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.
method Symbolic data analysis (SDA) with age, gender, and main causes of death dimensions.
result Identified clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
problem Captures long-range dependence and instantaneous correlation in mortality and interest rates.
method Mixed fractional Brownian motions, analytical solutions, risk-neutral measure, sequential parameter estimation.
result Explicit pricing of zero-coupon bonds and extreme mortality bonds, practical implications for pricing and risk management.
Databases are widespread, yet extracting relevant data can be difficult. Without substantial domain knowledge, multivariate search queries often return sparse or uninformative results. This paper introduces an approach for searching structured data based on probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes. Users speci…
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
problem Analyzing excess mortality during the pandemic in Germany.
method Empirical study using official death counts.
result Provided conclusions for insurance businesses.
Study finds actuarial unfairness in China's pension system, proposing income-dependent annuitization rules.
problem Actuarial fairness in China's NDC pension system when mortality differs across income groups.
method Developed a mortality-differentiated Lee-Carter framework with group-specific baseline mortality schedules and a common period effect, estimated using national and subgroup data.
result Substantial actuarial unfairness in the current age-only divisor, with a reverse transfer from poorer to richer retirees.