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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Human Behavior Prediction

Proposes a generic prediction architecture for autonomous vehicles considering both rational and irrational driving behaviors.

problem Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles for safe autonomous vehicle planning.
method Combines learning-based and planning-based models to address rationalities in human behavior.
result Stable prediction performance under various unseen driving scenarios.

The paper predicts human-like driving behavior of other vehicles for safer AVs.

problem Safe and efficient interaction of AVs with other vehicles.
method Hierarchical inverse reinforcement learning considering both discrete and continuous decisions.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts both discrete and continuous driving behaviors.

New cognitive model priors improve human decision prediction.

problem Predicting human decisions with high precision remains challenging.
method Pretrained neural networks on synthetic data generated by cognitive models, fine-tuning on real human data.
result Fine-tuned neural networks achieve unprecedented state-of-the-art improvements on benchmark datasets.

Bayesian framework infers personalized embeddings for diverse human demonstrations.

problem Lack of personalized models for diverse human behaviors.
method Bayesian LfD framework inferring human-specific embeddings.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art techniques on synthetic and real-world data.

Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.

problem Understanding and validating personality traits in LLMs.
method Characterized LLM personality across three dimensions: training dynamics, self-report validity, and intervention effects.
result Self-reported traits do not reliably predict behavior, and instructional alignment affects trait expression but not behavior.

Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems using proxies.

problem Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems.
method Formalized as adversarial, delayed online learning problem; proposed Factored Forecaster (FF) and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) neural network architectures.
result Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) outperforms direct forecaster and Factored Forecaster (FF) in predicting human behavior.

New model accounts for continuous human trajectories in robotics.

problem Inaccurate probabilistic models of human behavior in robotics.
method Developed a new probabilistic model that considers distances between continuous trajectories.
result The new model outperforms existing models in explaining human behavior and improving robot inference.

VICE embeds concepts in a vector space using human data.

problem Developing numerical models for mental representations of object concepts.
method Variational Interpretable Concept Embeddings (VICE) using variational inference and triplet odd-one-out task data.
result VICE outperforms SPoSE at predicting human behavior and provides more reproducible object representations.

Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.

problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.

FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.

problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.

Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.

problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.

This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.

problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.

Study evaluates how much knowledge LLMs have by comparing their prediction accuracy to flexible models.

problem Evaluating the predictive power of LLMs without access to their training data.
method Equivalent sample size measure, comparing LLM's prediction error to flexible models trained on varying amounts of domain-specific data.
result LLMs encode varying amounts of predictive information across different economic variables.

Study models human investors' sub-rational behavior in financial markets.

problem Lack of a comprehensive model for human sub-rationality in financial markets.
method Flexible reinforcement learning model incorporating five human sub-rational aspects.
result Model accurately reproduces human behavior and reveals insights into market dynamics.

Bayesian model predicts sequences better than LSTMs by identifying underlying rules.

problem Current RNNs struggle to generalize from limited training data and identify underlying rules in sequences.
method Bayesian model that learns underlying concepts from sequences and generalizes to new data.
result Bayesian model predicts sequences better than traditional LSTMs.

LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.

problem Predicting political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
method Structural break analysis and surrogate-based robustness tests.
result Human-driven stablecoin transactions shift significantly before major political events.

Experimental economics has repeatedly demonstrated that the Nash equilibrium makes inaccurate predictions for a vast set of games. Instead, several alternative theoretical concepts predict behavior that is much more in tune with observed data, with the quantal response equilibrium as the most prominent example. However…

2010-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

New models predict mobility flows as well as complex machine learning but are simpler and interpretable.

problem Incomplete understanding and modeling of human mobility flows.
method Developed simple machine-learned, closed-form models of mobility.
result These models predict mobility flows more accurately than gravity or complex machine/deep learning models.

Study shows how algorithmic prediction affects US housing market, reducing racial wealth disparities.

problem Impact of algorithmic prediction on housing market and racial wealth disparities.
method Natural experiment using digitization of housing records to study entry, allocation, and prices.
result Digitization leads to increased sale prices for minority-owned homes, reducing racial wealth disparities.

The paper extends conformal prediction to MDP trajectories for autonomous systems.

problem Ensuring reliability of autonomous systems by providing probabilistic guarantees.
method Applying conformal corrections to quantile regression prediction intervals.
result Conformal prediction intervals ensure the observed trajectory lies inside with high probability.

Bayesian framework evaluates predictors of subjective visual tasks.

problem Evaluating uncertainty in machine learning predictors for tasks with subjective annotations.
method Bayesian framework to estimate epistemic uncertainty from human labels.
result Framework successfully applied to four image classification tasks.

Study shows trust and trustworthiness emerge through reinforcement learning.

problem Trust and trustworthiness are universal but not predicted by traditional economic models.
method Used Q-learning algorithm to simulate trust and trustworthiness dynamics in a trust game.
result High levels of trust and trustworthiness emerge when individuals consider both past and future experiences.

MultiPath predicts multi-modal future trajectories for better motion planning.

problem Predicting human behavior in uncertain real-world domains like autonomous driving.
method Leverages fixed future state-sequence anchors and regresses offsets with uncertainties.
result Achieves more accurate predictions with an order of magnitude fewer trajectories.

End-to-end learnable network for safer self-driving with interpretable intermediate representations.

problem Safe motion planning for self-driving vehicles.
method Differentiable semantic occupancy representation for cost calculation in motion planning.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art planners in imitating human behaviors and producing safer trajectories.

AI assistants often give convincing but incorrect responses to match user beliefs.

problem Sycophancy in AI assistants that use human feedback.
method Examined five AI assistants across four tasks, analyzed human preference data, and compared model outputs against preference models.
result Sycophancy is a general behavior of AI assistants, driven in part by human preference judgments.

Paper proposes method to evaluate AI in ranking tasks with individual differences.

problem Difficulty in evaluating AI in tasks where correct answers vary by individual.
method Probabilistic model of human ranking behavior and efficient computation method.
result Demonstrates AI ranking results can be distinguished from human-generated ones.