A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this speculative episode confirms the mechanism and regularities already highlighted by the pre…
We utilize a fundamentally different model of trading costs to look at the effect of the opening of the Hong Kong Shanghai Connect that links the stock exchanges in the two cities, arguably the biggest event in international business and finance since Christopher Columbus set sail for India. We design a novel methodolo…
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study …
Based on the minute-by-minute data of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the analysis of probability distribution and autocorrelations, we find that the index fluctuations for the first few minutes of daily opening show behaviors very different from those of the other times. In particular, the properties of tail dist…
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we als…
SHHK Stock Connect increases A-H share price premium, more for less efficient markets.
These are lecture notes mainly aimed at graduate students on selected aspects of generalized geometry: in particular generalized complex and Kaehler structures and generalized holomorphic bundles. They are based on lectures given in March 2010 at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
New method improves tensor completion for weakly-dependent spatiotemporal data.
In Part III of this study, we apply the price dynamical model with big buyers and big sellers developed in Part I of this paper to the daily closing prices of the top 20 banking and real estate stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The basic idea is to estimate the strength parameters of the big buyers and the…
Improved contact tracing models outperform NIST challenge results.
Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on Factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, w…
Method predicts which high-dimensional correlation signs will change in the future.
We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced f…
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
We present a systematic algorithm testing for the existence of collective self-organization in the behavior of agents in social systems, with a concrete empirical implementation on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) over the 20th century and on Hong Kong Hang Seng composite index (HSI) since 1969. The algori…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
In this paper, a unified susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible-aware (SEIS-A) framework is proposed to combine epidemic spreading with individuals' on-line self-consultation behaviors. An epidemic spreading prediction model is established based on the SEIS-A framework. The prediction process contains two phases. In …
China Vanke Co. faced a hostile takeover by Baoneng Group, sparking controversy.
New model for network analysis using functional data.
In Chinese societies, superstition is of paramount importance, and vehicle license plates with desirable numbers can fetch very high prices in auctions. Unlike other valuable items, license plates are not allocated an estimated price before auction. I propose that the task of predicting plate prices can be viewed as a …
The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article combines these two methods in a non-trivial way and proposes a model, which we call th…
Large vessel occlusion (LVO) plays an important role in the diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke. Identifying LVO of patients in the early stage on admission would significantly lower the probabilities of suffering from severe effects due to stroke or even save their lives. In this paper, we utilized both structural and …
In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains chall…
Traditional sentiment construction in finance relies heavily on the dictionary-based approach, with a few exceptions using simple machine learning techniques such as Naive Bayes classifier. While the current literature has not yet invoked the rapid advancement in the natural language processing, we construct in this re…
China's rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents' health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During the past decades, fluctuation in the international oil prices has imposed signi…
A deep convolutional fuzzy system (DCFS) on a high-dimensional input space is a multi-layer connection of many low-dimensional fuzzy systems, where the input variables to the low-dimensional fuzzy systems are selected through a moving window across the input spaces of the layers. To design the DCFS based on input-outpu…
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
We give an explicit counter-example to a conjecture of Kyusik Hong and Joonyeong Won about -invariants of polarized smooth del Pezzo surfaces of degree one.
Quantum-enhanced method improves stock return prediction accuracy.
Weibo experts predict stock market better than non-experts.
Study develops a new model for predicting individual mobility based on activity patterns.
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first limits of the orderbook. In the spirit of Granger causality, we measure the level o…
Proposes a new model for clustering passenger trajectories with graphs.
We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the nonlinear feedbacks, the termination of a bubble is found to be characterized by a …
We apply RMT, Network and MF-DFA methods to investigate correlation, network and multifractal properties of 20 global financial indices. We compare results before and during the financial crisis of 2008 respectively. We find that the network method gives more useful information about the formation of clusters as compar…
This study synthesizes stablecoin systems and develops a performance evaluation framework.
A new model optimizes portfolios by accounting for dynamic market conditions.
Quantum spheres' groupoid structure revealed.
The study applies wealth thermalization hypothesis to social networks and explains inequality.
In this paper, we consider natural geometric objects coming from Lagrangian Floer theory and mirror symmetry. Lau and Zhou showed that some of the explicit Gromov-Witten potentials computed by Cho, Hong, Kim, and Lau are essentially classical modular forms. Recent work by Zwegers and two of the authors determined modul…
We propose a mathematical model for the word-of-mouth communications among stock investors through social networks and explore how the changes of the investors' social networks influence the stock price dynamics and vice versa. An investor is modeled as a Gaussian fuzzy set (a fuzzy opinion) with the center and standar…
Proves rigidity of stable free boundary hypersurfaces in 5-manifolds.
Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it…
Proposes a new model for clustering passenger trips considering hierarchical and multi-dimensional data.
HSBC grew from colonial China through wars, surviving unethical practices.
The paper proves mirror symmetry for del Pezzo surfaces and computes related structures.