A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a method to find costly high-confidence errors in black box models.
Estimating the value function for a fixed policy is a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning. Policy evaluation algorithms---to estimate value functions---continue to be developed, to improve convergence rates, improve stability and handle variability, particularly for off-policy learning. To understand the prop…
Classifiers used in the wild, in particular for safety-critical systems, should not only have good generalization properties but also should know when they don't know, in particular make low confidence predictions far away from the training data. We show that ReLU type neural networks which yield a piecewise linear cla…
Efficient method for high confidence level inference using parallel stochastic optimization.
Paper defines and solves a problem in representation learning to ensure fairness with high confidence.
Trained DNN models are increasingly adopted as integral parts of software systems, but they often perform deficiently in the field. A particularly damaging problem is that DNN models often give false predictions with high confidence, due to the unavoidable slight divergences between operation data and training data. To…
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
In the field of reinforcement learning there has been recent progress towards safety and high-confidence bounds on policy performance. However, to our knowledge, no practical methods exist for determining high-confidence policy performance bounds in the inverse reinforcement learning setting---where the true reward fun…
Deep neural networks are easily fooled high confidence predictions for adversarial samples
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
Mutual teaching improves graph models with less labeled data.
New method reduces variance in stochastic optimization with high confidence.
Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) methods are ideal for safe imitation learning, as they allow a learning agent to reason about reward uncertainty and the safety of a learned policy. However, Bayesian IRL is computationally intractable for high-dimensional problems because each sample from the posterior req…
Unified framework for error quantification in off-policy evaluation with distributional shift.
Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate prediction uncertainty in a pre-trained neural network model. Our method estimates the tr…
Several machine learning models, including neural networks, consistently misclassify adversarial examples---inputs formed by applying small but intentionally worst-case perturbations to examples from the dataset, such that the perturbed input results in the model outputting an incorrect answer with high confidence. Ear…
GAAVI offers anytime-valid tests for CMF global null and contrasts.
Standard results in stochastic convex optimization bound the number of samples that an algorithm needs to generate a point with small function value in expectation. More nuanced high probability guarantees are rare, and typically either rely on "light-tail" noise assumptions or exhibit worse sample complexity. In this …
In this study, importance of user inputs is studied in the context of personalizing human activity recognition models using incremental learning. Inertial sensor data from three body positions are used, and the classification is based on Learn++ ensemble method. Three different approaches to update models are compared:…
A key impediment to reinforcement learning (RL) in real applications with limited, batch data is defining a reward function that reflects what we implicitly know about reasonable behaviour for a task and allows for robust off-policy evaluation. In this work, we develop a method to identify an admissible set of reward f…
Recent work has shown that state-of-the-art classifiers are quite brittle, in the sense that a small adversarial change of an originally with high confidence correctly classified input leads to a wrong classification again with high confidence. This raises concerns that such classifiers are vulnerable to attacks and ca…
Pathology reports contain useful information such as the main involved organ, diagnosis, etc. These information can be identified from the free text reports and used for large-scale statistical analysis or serve as annotation for other modalities such as pathology slides images. However, manual classification for a hug…
It has been suggested that adversarial examples cause deep learning models to make incorrect predictions with high confidence. In this work, we take the opposite stance: an overly confident model is more likely to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. This work is one of the most proactive approaches taken to date, as…
A new method infers causal gene regulatory networks from parallel CRISPR interventions and transcriptomic data.
Discriminatively trained neural classifiers can be trusted, only when the input data comes from the training distribution (in-distribution). Therefore, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is very important to avoid classification errors. In the context of OOD detection for image classification, one of the recen…
LLMs struggle with zero-shot annotation tasks due to model-internalized priors.
Estimating and assessing the risk of a large portfolio is an important topic in financial econometrics and risk management. The risk is often estimated by a substitution of a good estimator of the volatility matrix. However, the accuracy of such a risk estimator for large portfolios is largely unknown, and a simple ine…
Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data intro…
BALLET filters a high-confidence region of interest for Bayesian optimization.
One of the main drawbacks of deep neural networks, like many other classifiers, is their vulnerability to adversarial attacks. An important reason for their vulnerability is assigning high confidence to regions with few or even no feature points. By feature points, we mean a nonlinear transformation of the input space …
Measuring mutual information from finite data is difficult. Recent work has considered variational methods maximizing a lower bound. In this paper, we prove that serious statistical limitations are inherent to any method of measuring mutual information. More specifically, we show that any distribution-free high-confide…
The study analyzes group testing algorithms for identifying defective items with high confidence.
Bayesian reward learning from demonstrations enables rigorous safety and uncertainty analysis when performing imitation learning. However, Bayesian reward learning methods are typically computationally intractable for complex control problems. We propose Bayesian Reward Extrapolation (Bayesian REX), a highly efficient …
Sampling random points can reveal submanifold topology.
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
It is now well known that deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attack. Adversarial samples are similar to the clean ones, but are able to cheat the attacked DNN to produce incorrect predictions in high confidence. But most of the existing adversarial attacks have high success rate only when the inf…
Researchers show how to secretly train models with hidden data, detect usage with high confidence.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
Machine learning algorithms have been effectively applied into various real world tasks. However, it is difficult to provide high-quality machine learning solutions to accommodate an unknown distribution of input datasets; this difficulty is called the uncertainty prediction problems. In this paper, a margin-based Pare…
Prove non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk in statistical learning
We study the model selection problem in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate and stable model selection. To this end, we analyze the model performance ranking …
Approximating non-linear kernels using feature maps has gained a lot of interest in recent years due to applications in reducing training and testing times of SVM classifiers and other kernel based learning algorithms. We extend this line of work and present low distortion embeddings for dot product kernels into linear…
We propose a bootstrap-based robust high-confidence level upper bound (Robust H-CLUB) for assessing the risks of large portfolios. The proposed approach exploits rank-based and quantile-based estimators, and can be viewed as a robust extension of the H-CLUB method (Fan et al., 2015). Such an extension allows us to hand…
The application of deep recurrent networks to audio transcription has led to impressive gains in automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Many have demonstrated that small adversarial perturbations can fool deep neural networks into incorrectly predicting a specified target with high confidence. Current work on fool…
RTSCV detects unknown unknowns to improve model performance.
In the Best- identification problem (Best--Arm), we are given stochastic bandit arms with unknown reward distributions. Our goal is to identify the arms with the largest means with high confidence, by drawing samples from the arms adaptively. This problem is motivated by various practical applications and…
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
SNPL learns safe policies for multi-objective interventions with high confidence.