Study improves forecasting of aggregated curves in electricity markets.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting aggregated curves like demand and supply in electricity markets.
method Exploits hierarchical structure of aggregated curves, uses reconciliation methods (bottom-up, top-down, linear optimal, aggregated-down).
result Hierarchical reconciliation methods can significantly improve forecast accuracy of aggregated curves.
SCHA-VAE generates novel data from limited examples using hierarchical context aggregation.
problem Generating data from a novel distribution with limited examples.
method Hierarchical context aggregation with attention-based point to set-level aggregation.
result Hierarchical approach better captures intrinsic variability in small data.
HAGs eliminate redundant computations in GNNs, improving training efficiency.
problem Redundant computations in GNNs leading to inefficiencies.
method Hierarchically Aggregated computation Graphs (HAGs) to manage and eliminate redundant computations.
result Significant improvement in training efficiency (up to 2.8x) with HAGs.
Data aggregation improves HAC for resource-constrained systems.
problem Resource constraints in embedded systems limit HAC's applicability.
method Data aggregation with BETULA algorithm reduces memory and runtime requirements.
result HAC can be applied to large datasets on resource-constrained systems.
HierarchicalForecast provides a Python framework for coherent hierarchical forecasting.
problem Ensuring forecasts at disaggregate levels add up to aggregate forecasts.
method Preprocessed datasets, evaluation metrics, and statistical baseline models.
result Python-based reference framework for statistical and ML forecasting.
We prove a lower bound for feature dimension in linear MDPs and propose a novel dynamics aggregation framework.
problem The limitation of feature dimension in linear MDPs and the need for efficient hierarchical reinforcement learning.
method We propose a novel dynamics aggregation framework based on structural dynamics and design a provably efficient hierarchical reinforcement learning algorithm.
result Our algorithm achieves a regret of i l d e O ( d ψ 3 / 2 H 3 / 2 N T ) ilde{O} ( d_ψ^{3/2} H^{3/2}\sqrt{ N T} ) i l d e O ( d ψ 3/2 H 3/2 N T ) and meets the condition d ψ 3 N ≪ d 3 d_ψ^3 N \ll d^{3} d ψ 3 N ≪ d 3 in most real-world environments. A simple guide to understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
problem Understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
method Formalizing hierarchical causality in terms of actors and agents, with three key structures.
result The system requires three additional structures: causation classes, aggregation operators, and discrete event-time maps.
This study addresses the issue of predicting the glaucomatous visual field loss from patient disease datasets. Our goal is to accurately predict the progress of the disease in individual patients. As very few measurements are available for each patient, it is difficult to produce good predictors for individuals. A rece…
Federated Learning speeds up speech recognition training by 7x and reduces error rate by 6%.
problem Training acoustic models for speech recognition tasks in a federated manner.
method Hierarchical optimization and dynamic gradient aggregation methods.
result Significant improvement in training convergence speed and model performance.
Unsupervised method learns hierarchical graph representations without labels.
problem Lack of hierarchical graph representations and need for labeled data in GNNs.
method Maximizes mutual information between local and global graph representations.
result Comparable performance to supervised methods on graph classification benchmarks.
This paper addresses privacy in federated learning with wireless clients and base stations.
problem Privacy of clients' data in federated learning with hierarchical wireless architecture.
method Derives communication cost limits and introduces private aggregation schemes tailored for hierarchical wireless systems.
result Private aggregation schemes reduce communication costs by multiplicative factors compared to information-theoretic limits.
The ability to adequately model risks is crucial for insurance companies. The method of "Copula-based hierarchical risk aggregation" by Arbenz et al. offers a flexible way in doing so and has attracted much attention recently. We briefly introduce the aggregation tree model as well as the sampling algorithm proposed by…
A new hierarchical clustering method selects representative points from sub-minimum-spanning-trees.
problem Selecting representative points for hierarchical clustering to improve robustness and reliability.
method Identify representative points using reciprocal nearest data points in sub-minimum-spanning-trees.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms other methods in accuracy and efficiency.
The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
problem Forecasting power consumption at different levels of household aggregation.
method Three-step process: feature generation, aggregation, and projection.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on prediction error and performs well on real data.
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
problem Probabilistic coherent forecasting of time series data across different levels of aggregation.
method Proposes a coherent multivariate mixture output for neural forecasting architectures, optimizing with a composite likelihood objective.
result 13.2% average accuracy improvements on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
The benefits of diversifying risks are difficult to estimate quantitatively because of the uncertainties in the dependence structure between the risks. Also, the modelling of multidimensional dependencies is a non-trivial task. This paper focuses on one such technique for portfolio aggregation, namely the aggregation o…
Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.
problem Aggregating models from heterogeneous datasets with shared latent structures.
method Bayesian nonparametrics for identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations.
result Framework successfully aggregates various model types across different applications.
New method explains ML performance gaps without causal knowledge.
problem Understanding why ML algorithms perform differently across domains.
method Nonparametric hierarchical decomposition framework.
result Detailed variable-level explanations for performance gaps.
Hierarchical Partial-Order Models for Ranking
problem Rank aggregation combining ordered lists
method Hierarchical partial-order models
result Bayesian inference for latent poset hierarchy
VFG model embeds flow-based models with hierarchical structures using variational inference.
problem Flow-based models struggle with high-dimensional latent spaces and lack of tractable inference for graphical structures.
method Integrates flow-based functions through variational inference with aggregation nodes for hierarchical information integration.
result VFG models achieve improved ELBO and likelihood values on multiple datasets.
This paper proves the necessity and effectiveness of learning the prior in VAEs.
problem Aggregated posterior may not match unit Gaussian prior, leading to poor variational inference.
method Proves necessity and effectiveness of learning the prior, analyzes why it's needed, and proposes hypothesis.
result Learning the prior can improve reconstruction loss and achieve comparable test NLL to deep hierarchical VAEs.
Hierarchical framework for model evaluation on leaderboards
problem Uncertainty and variability in model performance across tasks
method Hierarchical framework with task-level and leaderboard-level rank prediction intervals
result Statistically valid and informative model rank intervals
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been successfully applied in node classification tasks of network mining. However, most of these models based on neighborhood aggregation are usually shallow and lack the "graph pooling" mechanism, which prevents the model from obtaining adequate global information. In order to …
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
problem How to rationally aggregate Pareto optimal models while preserving Pareto efficiency.
method Four logical steps: 1) Bayesian models, 2) Prior as preference ranking, 3) Consistent aggregation, 4) Weighted average of priors.
result All rational/consistent aggregation rules follow a generalized hierarchical Bayesian model.
We introduce a novel algorithm of community detection that maintains dynamically a community structure of a large network that evolves with time. The algorithm maximizes the modularity index thanks to the construction of a randomized hierarchical clustering based on a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Interesting…
Study identifies contagion in aggregated defaults despite environmental changes.
problem Identify contagion in aggregated default counts with fluctuating probabilities.
method Compare three contagion mechanisms (Davis-Lo, Torri, Vasicek) under i.i.d. and hierarchical specifications.
result Threshold contagion is largely absorbed into environmental heterogeneity, while cumulative contagion leaves a persistent signature.
HTAD predicts diagnoses from EHRs using target-aware attention.
problem Lack of specificity in aggregating clinical records for diagnosis prediction.
method Hierarchical target-attentive mechanism for EHRs.
result Target-aware attention significantly improves diagnosis prediction performance.
CoRe method improves time series forecasting coherency without strict constraints.
problem Noisy hierarchical time series data that doesn't perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints.
method Coherency Regularization using neural networks.
result Improved forecast accuracy and coherence, especially in noisy data scenarios.
Study compares forecasting methods for distribution grid loads.
problem Improving load prediction accuracy in distribution grids.
method Evaluation of probabilistic forecasting techniques on distribution grid load prediction.
result Hierarchical techniques enhance bottom-level forecast accuracy.
Improved sales forecasting at various levels using ensemble methods.
problem Enhancing sales forecasting accuracy at different levels of e-commerce data.
method Hierarchical robust aggregation of sales forecasts using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear trend method.
result Better forecasts at subsubfamily, subfamily, and family levels compared to individual techniques.
Proposes HOTA-FedGradNorm for faster and robust PFL in noisy channels.
problem Statistical heterogeneity across clients in federated learning.
method Dynamic weighting, OTA aggregation, hierarchical federated learning.
result Training speed improvement and robustness against channel effects.
This paper presents a way of solving Markov Decision Processes that combines state abstraction and temporal abstraction. Specifically, we combine state aggregation with the options framework and demonstrate that they work well together and indeed it is only after one combines the two that the full benefit of each is re…
Representation learning is an essential problem in a wide range of applications and it is important for performing downstream tasks successfully. In this paper, we propose a new model that learns coupled representations of domains, intents, and slots by taking advantage of their hierarchical dependency in a Spoken Lang…
Paper uses HGNN to predict stock types from relationships and temporal data.
problem Predicting stock types from complex market data.
method Integrates stock relationships and temporal data using HGNN.
result Effective prediction of stock types with HGNN model.
A new model integrates claim history and covariates for non-life insurance reserving.
problem Lack of information in traditional reserving models for non-life insurance claims.
method Hierarchical reserving model integrating claim history and covariates.
result Flexibility and robustness of the hierarchical reserving model demonstrated.
HEBAE improves VAEs by adaptively balancing reconstruction and regularization.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leading to over-regularization and poor latent encoding.
method Hierarchical Empirical Bayes approach to probabilistic generative models.
result HEBAE generates higher quality samples with better FID scores.
The paper quantifies uncertainty in aggregated machine learning metrics.
problem Uncertainty in summarizing model performance across multiple tasks.
method Statistical methodologies including bootstrapping and Bayesian modeling.
result Insights into model performance dominance for specific tasks.
A novel framework combines LLMs and RL for financial portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing financial portfolios using sentiment analysis and market indicators.
method Hierarchical RL structure with base, meta, and super-agents.
result Achieved a 26% annualized return and Sharpe ratio of 1.2.
New methods improve electricity load forecasting using hierarchical transfer learning.
problem Improving electricity load forecasts at national scale using smart meter data.
method Developed two hierarchical transfer learning methods based on stacking and aggregation of experts.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to benchmark algorithms.
DETOX improves distributed training resilience with redundancy and robust aggregation.
problem Byzantine node failures in distributed training.
method Combines redundancy and robust aggregation methods.
result Substantial increase in robustness with nearly linear runtime.
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.
problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.
Policy-GNN optimizes GNN aggregation for diverse node iterations.
problem Optimizing GNN performance by varying aggregation iterations for different nodes.
method Policy-GNN uses a meta-policy framework with deep reinforcement learning to adaptively determine the number of aggregations for each node.
result Policy-GNN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on real-world datasets.
HATS predicts stock and market index movements using hierarchical graph attention.
problem Accurately predicting stock and market index movements using relational data.
method Hierarchical Graph Attention Network (HATS) selectively aggregates information from different relation types.
result HATS outperforms existing methods in predicting stock and market index movements.
We introduce an architecture based on deep hierarchical decompositions to learn effective representations of large graphs. Our framework extends classic R-decompositions used in kernel methods, enabling nested part-of-part relations. Unlike recursive neural networks, which unroll a template on input graphs directly, we…
Study identifies key ESG variables for assessing financial risk.
problem Assessing financial risk from ESG data with many variables.
method Proposed framework for hierarchical ESG data, selecting relevant variables.
result Selected ESG variables are more relevant to financial risk than aggregated scores.
A new multi-phase approach improves supply chain forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy for hierarchical supply chain demands.
method Independent child-level forecasting followed by parent-level estimation.
result 82-90% improvement in forecast accuracy compared to traditional methods.