Many real-world prediction tasks have outcome variables that have characteristic heavy-tail distributions. Examples include copies of books sold, auction prices of art pieces, demand for commodities in warehouses, etc. By learning heavy-tailed distributions, "big and rare" instances (e.g., the best-sellers) will have a…
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48 results for “Heavy-tailed outcomes”
Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.
New method estimates extreme outcomes in heavy-tailed data, breaking circular dependence.
problem Estimating outcomes for extreme events in heavy-tailed data.
method Proposes an ADRF estimator that includes a structured tail-shape output and a diagnostic to evaluate tail shape.
result Successfully reduces MAE in deep-tail and conditional-shortfall predictions.
Paper tackles robust batched bandits for heavy-tailed rewards.
problem Clinical trials and other applications with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Proposes robust batched bandit algorithms for heavy-tailed rewards in finite-arm and Lipschitz-continuous settings.
result Heavier-tailed rewards require fewer batches for near-optimal regret in the instance-independent regime and Lipschitz setting.
Motivated by problems in search and detection we present a solution to a Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) problem with both heavy-tailed reward distributions and a new class of feedback, filtered semibandit feedback. In a CMAB problem an agent pulls a combination of arms from a set in each round, g…
This paper improves MDS visualization by adjusting Wasserstein distances for heavy-tailed data.
problem Enhancing Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) for better pattern recognition with heavy-tailed distributions.
method Introduces Max-D-SW, a metric adjustment of Max-Sliced Wasserstein distance that aggregates over orthonormal bases.
result Max-D-SW provides a clear numerical advantage in MDS outcomes, especially for heavy-tailed distributions.
Studied how heavy-tailed behavior affects SGD's generalization in quadratic optimization.
problem Link between heavy-tailed behavior and generalization in SGD.
method Used heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation and proved stability bounds.
result Stability of SGD depends on the loss function's tail behavior.
Robust X-Learner: Breaking the Curse of Imbalance and Heavy Tails via Robust Cross-Imputationstat.ML
Robust X-Learner improves HTE estimation in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.
problem Estimating HTE in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.
method Integrates γ-divergence objective and Proxy Hessian strategy into gradient boosting.
result Reduces PEHE metric by 98.6% in semi-synthetic Criteo Uplift dataset.
SHIFT improves robustness in estimating dose-response functions with heavy-tailed contamination.
problem Outliers bias estimates of average dose-response functions in heavy-tailed data.
method SHIFT combines cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization, Welsch-loss, and defensive OLS refit.
result SHIFT reduces RMSE from 1.03 to 0.33 on localized contamination test.
Recent exploration of optimal individualized decision rules (IDRs) for patients in precision medicine has attracted a lot of attention due to the heterogeneous responses of patients to different treatments. In the existing literature of precision medicine, an optimal IDR is defined as a decision function mapping from t…
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in remote fields, where optimality of bet-hedging or diversification strategies is ex…
This paper proposes a method to evaluate policies using quantile metrics, improving upon existing mean-based approaches.
problem Evaluating policies using mean-based metrics ignores the variability of outcomes, especially in skewed reward distributions.
method The paper introduces a doubly-robust inference procedure for quantile off-policy evaluation using deep conditional generative learning.
result The proposed estimator outperforms classical OPE estimators for mean outcomes in heavy-tailed reward distributions.
Study analyzes smart contract adoption under bounded risk, showing stable adoption but fragile financial outcomes.
problem Understanding smart contract adoption in derivative markets under risk constraints.
method Structural theory linked with simulation and real-world validation.
result Adoption intensity is stable but profitability and service outcomes are sensitive to volatility.
This paper shows that one cannot learn the probability of rare events without imposing further structural assumptions. The event of interest is that of obtaining an outcome outside the coverage of an i.i.d. sample from a discrete distribution. The probability of this event is referred to as the "missing mass". The impo…
MOCA uses modular attention to estimate causal effects from complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional treatment and outcome mechanisms.
method MOCA is a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through modular design and one-way attention mechanism, with cutting-feedback to prevent outcome influence on treatment representations.
result MOCA outperforms classical estimators and machine learning approaches across various simulated and real-world scenarios.
Study improves ERM for heavy-tailed data with dependent inputs.
problem Empirical Risk Minimization with dependent and heavy-tailed data.
method Extending risk bounds for ERM with heavy-tailed, dependent data.
result Established risk bounds for ERM with dependent and heavy-tailed data.
Sparse Linear Regression when Noises and Covariates are Heavy-Tailed and Contaminated by Outliersstat.ML
Efficiently estimates sparse linear regression with heavy-tailed and outlier-contaminated data.
problem Estimating sparse linear regression coefficients with heavy-tailed and outlier-contaminated data.
method Efficient computation of estimators with sharp error bounds.
result Sharp error bounds for efficient estimators.
RED-2400 is a public benchmark of trading events from a Solana exchange, labeled by algorithmic rejection.
problem Analyzing algorithmically-rejected trading events for insights into market dynamics.
method Public dataset of 6,660 algorithmically-rejected trading events, linked to post-rejection price and liquidity trajectories.
result First window of a planned series of datasets extending the time horizon and enabling regime-stratified analysis.
Is AdamW effective under heavy-tailed noise?
problem Stochastic gradient noise in LLM pretraining is typically heavy-tailed.
method Formulate as an open problem, prove a positive weighted-metric benchmark, and give a corridor lower-bound mechanism.
result No rigorous convergence theory for AdamW established in heavy-tailed regime.
Self-regulating annealing improves sampling from heavy-tailed datasets.
problem Sampling from heavy-tailed distributions using diffusion models.
method Proposed an SDE-based sampler with a state-dependent diffusion coefficient.
result State dependence induces a self-regulating annealing mechanism.
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.
New diffusion models capture heavy-tailed distributions better.
problem Diffusion models struggle with rare or extreme events in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Repurposed diffusion framework using multivariate Student-t distributions, tailored perturbation kernel, and -divergence.
result Our models generate rare and extreme events more effectively than standard diffusion models.
New concentration inequalities for tensors with heavy-tailed coefficients.
problem Developing bounds for Euclidean functions of tensors with sub-Weibull distributions.
method Extending concentration inequalities to sub-Weibull random tensors, using new inequalities for heavy-tailed random variables and martingale analysis.
result Established a phase transition between sub-gaussian and heavy-tailed regimes for Euclidean functions of tensors.
New models explain heavy-tailed behavior in neural networks.
problem Heavy-tailed spectral densities in neural networks.
method High-temperature Marchenko-Pastur (HTMP) ensemble models.
result Heavy-tailed behavior arises from three factors: data structure, training temperature, and eigenvector entropy.
New PAC-Bayes bounds for heavy-tailed losses using supermartingales.
problem Extending PAC-Bayes bounds to heavy-tailed losses.
method Using supermartingales and bounded variance assumption.
result PAC-Bayes generalization bounds for heavy-tailed losses.
New bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs without info-theory terms.
problem Understanding generalization of heavy-tailed stochastic optimization.
method Fractional Fokker-Planck equation to estimate entropy flows.
result High-probability bounds with better dimension dependence.
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
problem Error probability in classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
method Asymptotic expressions for Bhattacharyya bound on misclassification error probabilities.
result Obtained asymptotic expressions for misclassification error probabilities.
TTF improves performance of normalizing flows for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Improving performance of normalizing flows for heavy-tailed distributions.
method Uses a Gaussian base distribution and a final transformation layer to produce heavy tails.
result Experimental results show TTF outperforms current methods, especially in high-dimensional or heavy-tailed scenarios.
Study tail behavior of sum of heavy-tailed risks with copulas.
problem Analyzing the tail behavior of sums of heavy-tailed risks with dependence modeled by copulas.
method Modeling dependence with copulas and analyzing tail asymptotics of sums of heavy-tailed risks.
result Obtained asymptotic expansions for Value-at-Risk of aggregate risk.
New sampling method for heavy-tailed distributions using Langevin Algorithm.
problem Sampling from heavy-tailed distributions efficiently.
method Transformed Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm on specific transformations.
result Polynomial-order oracle complexities for certain heavy-tailed densities.
Heavy-tailed distributions emerge in SGD's parameter evolution.
problem Understanding heavy-tailed distributions in SGD parameter evolution.
method Continuous diffusion approximation of SGD (homogenized SGD) analysis.
result Explicit upper and lower bounds on tail-index of homogenized SGD.
Paper tackles robust offline RL with heavy-tailed rewards.
problem Real-world applications often encounter heavy-tailed rewards, challenging offline RL.
method Proposes ROAM and ROOM algorithms using median-of-means method for robust off-policy evaluation and OPO.
result Demonstrates superior performance on heavy-tailed reward datasets compared to existing methods.
Privacy-preserving SGD with heavy-tailed noise achieves differential privacy guarantees.
problem Privacy preservation in noisy SGD with heavy-tailed noise.
method Differential privacy guarantees for SGD with heavy-tailed noise.
result SGD with heavy-tailed perturbations achieves -DP.
New bounds link SGD's generalization to heavy tails without topological assumptions.
problem Linking SGD's generalization error to heavy tails without additional assumptions.
method Developed Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, converting to generalization bounds.
result Generalization bounds for a broader class of objective functions, including non-convex functions, without topological assumptions.
Work on SGDm under heavy-tailed noise, revealing its generalization properties.
problem Understanding generalization of SGDm under heavy-tailed noise.
method Analysis of continuous-time limit (SDE) and discrete-time SGDm, establishing generalization bounds.
result SGDm can have worse generalization in the presence of heavy-tailed noise for quadratic loss functions.
Optimized method tackles convex optimization with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Convex optimization problems with noisy gradients.
method Vanilla stochastic proximal subgradient method without gradient clipping or normalization.
result Achieves optimal complexity for various convex optimization types under heavy-tailed noise.
Efficiently estimates sparse linear regression with heavy-tailed data and outliers.
problem Sparse estimation of linear regression coefficients with heavy-tailed covariates and noises, including outliers.
method Efficient computation of robust estimator with nearly optimal error bound.
result Nearly optimal error bound for robust sparse estimation.
This work compresses heavy-tailed weight matrices for tighter generalization bounds.
problem Empirical evidence linking heavy-tailed weight matrices to test set accuracy but lack of formal relationship with generalization bounds.
method Utilized the compression framework to show that heavy-tailed matrices can be compressed, resulting in sparse weight matrices.
result Demonstrated a non-vacuous generalization bound for compressed networks with heavy-tailed weight matrices.
A simple log-transform fixes heavy-tailed data for generative models.
problem Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data.
method Apply the soft-log transform to data before training and exponentiate samples after generation.
result Log-FM outperforms specialized baselines on multivariate benchmarks.
New class of heavy-tailed distributions shows weighted averages dominate individual variables.
problem Understanding and comparing risks in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Introducing a new class of heavy-tailed distributions and proving stochastic dominance relations.
result Weighted averages of random variables in this class are stochastically larger than individual variables.
New RDP guarantees for heavy-tailed SDEs and SGD.
problem Characterizing differential privacy for heavy-tailed noise in learning algorithms.
method Rényi flow computations and fractional Poincaré inequalities.
result First RDP guarantees for heavy-tailed SDEs with weaker dependence on dimension.
New algorithm tackles multi-agent bandits with heavy-tailed data.
problem Maximizing system performance in multi-agent settings with heavy-tailed data.
method Algorithm exploits hub-like structures and synchronization among clients.
result Regret bound of for homogeneous settings, for heterogeneous.
Machine Learning Panel Data Regressions with Heavy-tailed Dependent Data: Theory and Applicationecon.EM
The paper improves machine learning for heavy-tailed panel data.
problem Improving estimates for financial and economic data with fat tails.
method Sparse-group LASSO regularization and Fuk-Nagaev concentration inequality.
result Oracle inequalities for panel data estimators.
Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations in sparsely populated regions. We show that heavy-tailed stochastic processes (…
HTFM improves mode coverage and tail-statistic recovery for heavy-tailed data.
problem Tackles heavy-tailed data in various domains with rare events.
method Proposes a framework using clock-conditioned Gaussian sources and truncated logsignature features.
result Improves mode coverage, sample quality, and tail-statistic recovery over Gaussian flow matching and baselines.
Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricingq-fin.MF
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
problem Underestimation of Value-at-Risk by traditional models in asset pricing.
method Developed an econometric framework combining heavy-tailed Student's distributions with behavioral probability weighting.
result Student's specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4% of cases, reducing underestimation of Value-at-Risk by 16.5 percentage points.
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
Heavy-tailed regularization improves deep neural network performance.
problem Improving generalization of deep neural networks.
method Introducing Heavy-Tailed Regularization, using differentiable penalty terms and Bayesian statistics.
result Heavy-tailed regularization outperforms conventional regularization techniques.