New method maps global value chains at product level from trade data.
problem Lack of detailed product-level value chain information in existing datasets.
method Machine learning and trade theory applied to international trade data.
result Approximate product-level value chain information inferred from trade patterns.
Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011, by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tig…
The fragmentation of production across countries has become an important feature of the globalization in recent decades and is often conceptualized by the term, global value chains (GVCs). When empirically investigating the GVCs, previous studies are mainly interested in knowing how global the GVCs are rather than how …
With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which currently amount to at least 36 trillion dollars. Interestingly, approximately 30-60 percent of global exports consist of intermediate products. Therefore, the trade flow network of a particular product with high added values can be re…
The paper finds a surprising positive correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in global value chains.
problem The puzzling positive correlation between upstreamness and downstreamness in industries and countries.
method Analysis of a simple model of random Input/Output tables and experiments on empirical data.
result Upstreamness and downstreamness of the same industrial sector/country are positively correlated with a slope close to +1.
This study analyzes dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios, identifying key risk factors and extreme events.
problem Understanding dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios under various risk factors and extreme events.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study spillover and interconnectedness of risk factors.
result Risk shocks influence dynamic connectedness between portfolios and risk factors, and extreme events affect investment outcomes.
International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy design at the national or regional level and business decision making at the fi…
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated by a maximum likelihood approach using historical rating transitions and heurist…
New method ranks sectors and countries using local and aggregate I-O data.
problem Ranking sectors and countries in global value chains using incomplete I-O tables.
method Rank-1 approximation to I-O tables using local and aggregate information. result Consistently good performance in reconstructing rankings of upstreamness and downstreamness.
FS-GCLSTM predicts stock returns by leveraging value-chain relationships.
problem Traditional time series models fail to capture complex interdependencies in modern markets.
method FS-GCLSTM integrates value-chain networks and graph convolutions to predict stock returns.
result FS-GCLSTM consistently delivers superior portfolio performance compared to traditional models.
Orchestrating the Twin Transition in GBS: A Socio-Technical Framework
problem MNCs' need to harmonize digital efficiency with environmental stewardship
method Technology Roadmapping (TRM) with ICT-centric innovation ecosystem toolkit
result Central 'operational airlock' for GBS in harmonizing digital and environmental transformation
Study reveals similarities in knowledge flows between pharmaceutical and AI industries.
problem Understanding the dynamics of drug pipelines in global pharmaceutical industry.
method Multilayer network analysis of drug pipeline, global supply chain, and ownership data.
result Proven similarities in knowledge flows between pharmaceutical and AI industries.
New proof of chain duality for simplicial complexes.
problem Proving the existence of chain duality for chain complexes over simplicial complexes.
method Geometric and conceptual treatment of chain duality.
result Fundamental for Ranicki's surgery exact sequence.
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in high-dimensional applications, s…
Paper introduces v-CMC linking causality and utility.
problem Linking causality and utility for value theory.
method Developed a new causal independence principle (v-CMC) and proved its equivalence.
result Equivalence of local, global, and decomposition versions of v-CMC.
New method uses diffusion models to speed up MCMC sampling.
problem Efficiently exploring high-dimensional and multimodal posterior functions.
method Combines Metropolis-Hastings with diffusion models for global sampling.
result Significant reduction in likelihood evaluations for accurate posterior representation.
Study analyzes climate-tech investments across 14 sectors.
problem Accelerating climate-tech innovation in nascent value chains.
method Analysis of 4,172 firms and 12,929 investments over 15 years.
result Only 15% of firms develop end products, 59% support them, and 26% develop services.
Although for neural networks with locally Lipschitz continuous activation functions the classical derivative exists almost everywhere, the standard chain rule is in general not applicable. We will consider a way of introducing a derivative for neural networks that admits a chain rule, which is both rigorous and easy to…
New algorithm trains deep neural networks without global optimization.
problem Training deep neural networks efficiently and without global optimization.
method Uses random complex exponential activation functions and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling.
result Consistently attains theoretical approximation rate for residual networks.
New bounds for SMC show its advantage over MCMC in multimodal distributions.
problem Estimating expectations under multimodal distributions with slow global mixing.
method Proves finite sample complexities for SMC with local mixing times, addressing bias through sequential resampling.
result SMC provides fully polynomial time approximation for multimodal problems.
The paper improves SMC algorithm for multi-modal distributions by proving variance bounds.
problem Problems with SMC on multi-modal distributions, especially in terms of mixing time.
method Proves variance bounds for SMC on multi-modal distributions using soft decomposition.
result Bounds on SMC variance depend on local rather than global mixing times.
We study here global and local entanglements of open protein chains by implementing the concept of knotoids. Knotoids have been introduced in 2012 by Vladimir Turaev as a generalization of knots in 3-dimensional space. More precisely, knotoids are diagrams representing projections of open curves in 3D space, in contras…
Polynomial invariants classify molecular chains based on their contact arrangements.
problem No established invariants for molecular chains with both hard and soft contacts.
method Developed polynomial invariants for circuit topology of molecular chains.
result Polynomial invariants efficiently classify chains with various contact types.
We present a new family of models that is based on graphs that may have undirected, directed and bidirected edges. We name these new models marginal AMP (MAMP) chain graphs because each of them is Markov equivalent to some AMP chain graph under marginalization of some of its nodes. However, MAMP chain graphs do not onl…
Crypto markets show negative spillovers between chains, not positive co-movements.
problem Negative spillovers in crypto asset returns across different blockchains.
method On-chain data from multiple blockchains (Ethereum, Solana, Binance, Arbitrum, Avalanche) analyzed over 2022-2025.
result Surges on one chain often coincide with declines on others, especially during attention shocks.
BARK optimizes black-box functions using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Bayesian optimization of complex, black-box functions with uncertainty quantification.
method BART Kernel using tree agreement for posterior over piecewise-constant functions, explored using MCMC.
result BARK obtains samples of Gaussian processes for function distributions, enabling acquisition functions for optimization.
The paper introduces a novel method for stable off-policy learning using value function chaining.
problem Stability issues in off-policy reinforcement learning.
method The approach involves learning on-policy first, then chaining off-policy value estimates.
result The method guarantees convergence and can approximate off-policy TD solutions.
Combines local and global samplers for efficient sampling.
problem Limited learning accuracy in regions with little data.
method Explore-Exploit Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy (Ex2MCMC) result Proves V-uniform geometric ergodicity of Ex2MCMC. New insights into stochastic methods for solving variational inequalities.
problem Understanding convergence behaviors of stochastic algorithms in variational inequalities.
method Re-casting SEG/SGDA as Markov Chains to analyze their probabilistic structures.
result The average iterate is asymptotically normal with a unique invariant distribution for various VIPs.
Study examines how COVID-19 intensified demand variability in U.S. supply chains.
problem The amplification of demand variability (Bullwhip Effect) in supply chains during the pandemic.
method Extensive industry-level data analysis using traditional and advanced empirical techniques.
result COVID-19 significantly amplified the Bullwhip Effect across different U.S. industries.
In this note we introduce certain invariants of real Lefschetz fibrations. We call these invariants {\em real Lefschetz chains}. We prove that if the fiber genus is greater than 1, then the real Lefschetz chains are complete invariants of real Lefschetz fibrations with only real critical values. If however the fiber ge…
TD learning reduces prediction error in Markov chain problems.
problem Estimating value functions in Markov chains with temporal inconsistency.
method Temporal difference learning minimizes temporal inconsistency between successive estimates.
result TD learning can significantly reduce mean-squared error in value estimates.
The paper calculates the value of information in high-dimensional decision making.
problem Determining the value of acquiring new information in high-dimensional decision problems.
method Using tools from sub-Gaussian processes and generic chaining for asymptotic analysis.
result Asymptotic results on the expected value of information as dimensionality increases.
We study body-and-hinge and panel-and-hinge chains in R^d, with two marked points: one on the first body, the other on the last. For a general chain, the squared distance between the marked points gives a Morse-Bott function on a torus configuration space. Maximal configurations, when the distance between the two marke…
With the help of a generalization of the Fermat principle in general relativity, we show that chains in CR geometry are geodesics of a certain Kropina metric constructed from the CR structure. We study the projective equivalence of Kropina metrics and show that if the kernel distributions of the corresponding 1-forms a…
Simulated annealing is a popular method for approaching the solution of a global optimization problem. Existing results on its performance apply to discrete combinatorial optimization where the optimization variables can assume only a finite set of possible values. We introduce a new general formulation of simulated an…
Matrix Chernoff bound for Markov chains applied to co-occurrence matrices.
problem Analyzing the behavior of co-occurrence statistics in sequential data.
method Proved a matrix Chernoff-type bound for sums of matrix-valued random variables sampled via a regular Markov chain.
result Achieved exponentially fast convergence rate and sample complexity analysis for co-occurrence matrices.
Study examines cryptoasset service providers in Austria, revealing global integration and distinct responses to market shocks.
problem Understanding cryptoasset integration and stress behavior in national economies.
method Directly identified on-chain addresses of Austrian crypto-asset service providers, reconstructing transaction activity across multiple cryptocurrencies.
result Austrian crypto-asset service providers are globally integrated, with distinct responses to market shocks.
FluxLayer solves cross-chain liquidity fragmentation for better MEV capture.
problem Cross-chain fragmented liquidity and MEV optimization.
method Three-layer framework integrating settlement, intent, and leverage mechanisms.
result FluxLayer enhances cross-chain MEV by capturing more arbitrage opportunities.
Let M be a closed connected manifold, f be a Morse map from M to a circle, v be a gradient-like vector field satisfying the transversality condition. The Novikov construction associates to these data a chain complex C∗=C∗(f,v). There is a chain homotopy equivalence between C∗ and completed simplicial cha…
We compute the chains associated to the left-invariant CR structures on the three-sphere. These structures are characterized by a single real modulus a. For the standard structure a=1, the chains are well-known and are closed curves. We show that for almost all other values of the modulus a either two or three ty…
Supply chains are the backbone of the global economy. Disruptions to them can be costly. Centrally managed supply chains invest in ensuring their resilience. Decentralized supply chains, however, must rely upon the self-interest of their individual components to maintain the resilience of the entire chain. We examine t…
A privacy-preserving framework detects faults in circular economy processes.
problem Lack of shared data across company borders due to privacy concerns.
method Federated Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Secure Multiparty Computation.
result The proposed FedMSPC framework outperforms standard PCA in fault detection.
This study categorizes RWA tokenization challenges and solutions.
problem Navigating the gap between on-chain deterministic code and off-chain probabilistic reality.
method Taxonomy and comparative analysis of RWA protocols, legal and technical standards.
result RWA tokenization requires overcoming legal and technical interoperability issues.
Method reconstructs hidden Markov chains from insurance data.
problem Recovering hidden Markov chains from incomplete insurance data.
method Neural architecture to explicitly provide transition probabilities.
result Neural model successfully validates decompression of insurance information.
The paper analyzes stability of random matrix products with Markovian noise.
problem Analyzing stability of random matrix products with Markovian noise.
method Using a super-Lyapunov drift condition and controlled growth of matrix-valued functions, the paper provides an exponential stability result for the p-th moment of random matrix product.
result Finite-time p-th moment bounds for linear stochastic approximation and TD learning algorithms.
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Paper proposes a new GPR-HS framework for accurate VCV estimation in global equity indices.
problem Accurate forecasting of Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) for regulatory processes.
method Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression-Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework.
result GPR-HS framework achieves regulatory compliance and outperforms static VaR benchmarks.