Framework for applying GPs to real-world data with scalability guidelines.
problem Deployment of Gaussian Processes (GPs) is hindered by computational costs and lack of guidelines.
method Proposed a framework for identifying GP suitability and setting up robust models, formalizing decisions of experienced practitioners.
result More accurate results at test time for glacier elevation change case study.
Method reconstructs glacier front trajectories from record moraine data.
problem Understanding past glacier dynamics from limited record data.
method Stochastic generator based on Brownian motion and NBI hyper parameter tuning.
result Reconstructed glacier front trajectories from moraine records.
Machine learning improves ice flow tracking in satellite images.
problem Improving accuracy of ice flow tracking in multi-spectral satellite images.
method Adversarial learning method to predict future ice flow.
result Adversarial learning improves ice flow tracking accuracy.
Elevating houses to flood risk increases uncertainty, leading to higher optimal elevations.
problem Deciding how high to elevate houses to manage riverine flood risks is complex due to uncertainties.
method Used a multi-objective robust decision-making framework to analyze uncertainties.
result Optimal house elevation can be significantly higher than FEMA's recommendation due to deep uncertainties.
Edge augmentation connects disconnected graphs by elevating eigenvalues.
problem Connecting disconnected subgraphs in graphs with zero eigenvalues.
method Elevating zero eigenvalues of graph's spectrum to connect subgraphs.
result The algorithm consistently connects graph components, achieving >50% inter-community edges.
Mathematical problems of digital terrain analysis include interpolation of digital elevation models (DEMs), DEM generalization and denoising, and computation of morphometric variables by calculation of partial derivatives of elevation. Traditionally, these procedures are based on numerical treatments of two-variable di…
Algorithm identifies interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects.
problem Estimating high-dimensional, uninterpretable CATE results.
method Rule sets summarizing CATE estimates, optimizing subgroup size and effect size.
result Frontier of Pareto optimal rule sets for subgroup identification.
Deep learning extracts terrain texture covariates for geostatistical modeling.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in geostatistical modeling using terrain texture data.
method Deep learning approach to automatically derive optimal terrain texture covariates from SRTM 90m DEM.
result Deep learning-derived covariates have strong explanatory power (R-squared around 0.6) for geochemical data.
Generative Adversarial Networks simulate elevator group control without extensive data.
problem Lack of historical real-world data for system testing.
method Used GANs to generate simulation data for a multi-car elevator system.
result GANs can be used as substitutes for expensive simulation runs, but fine-tuning is needed.
Unified framework detects change-points and estimates parameters in nonlinear systems with regime switching.
problem Detecting change-points and estimating parameters in nonlinear dynamical systems with regime transitions.
method Residual-loss anomaly analysis of physics-informed neural networks, two-stage strategy.
result The method outperforms traditional approaches in change-point localization and parameter estimation accuracy.
New method detects TC imagery patterns for rapid intensity change.
problem Detecting upcoming rapid intensity changes in TC satellite imagery.
method Nonparametric test of association between images and event labels using neural networks and bootstrap.
result Identifies archetypes of infrared imagery associated with elevated rapid intensification risk.
mm-Pose detects human skeletons in real-time using mmWave radar and CNNs.
problem Real-time human skeletal posture estimation in various scenarios.
method mmWave radar, radar-to-image representation, forked CNN architecture.
result Accurate predictions for human skeletal joints in 3D space.
New neural network enforces mass conservation for better ice flow predictions.
problem Reliably project future sea level rise by improving ice sheet model inputs.
method Proposes divergence-free neural networks (dfNNs) enforcing local mass conservation.
result dfNNs yield more reliable ice flux estimates compared to other models.
We simplify neural networks to 3D to study their topological changes.
problem Understanding how neural network layers affect low-dimensional topological invariants.
method Limiting each layer to a width of 3D space, tracking changes in linking numbers.
result ResNets and transformers are equally powerful in changing linking numbers.
In recent years, advances in machine learning algorithms, cheap computational resources, and the availability of big data have spurred the deep learning revolution in various application domains. In particular, supervised learning techniques in image analysis have led to superhuman performance in various tasks, such as…
Phone sensors could be useful in assessing changes in gait that occur with alcohol consumption. This study determined (1) feasibility of collecting gait-related data during drinking occasions in the natural environment, and (2) how gait-related features measured by phone sensors relate to estimated blood alcohol concen…
Paper addresses data heterogeneity in federated learning for CoxPH models in healthcare.
problem Data heterogeneity in federated learning of CoxPH models for healthcare.
method Feature-based clustering and event-based reporting strategy.
result Enhanced model accuracy and performance in federated survival analysis.
When the residents of Flint learned that lead had contaminated their water system, the local government made water-testing kits available to them free of charge. The city government published the results of these tests, creating a valuable dataset that is key to understanding the causes and extent of the lead contamina…
Generative model connects physical properties to latent vectors for solar magnetic patches.
problem Disconnection between generative latent vectors and scientifically relevant quantities.
method Integrating GAN, SVM, and SSL to generate and retrieve physically interpretable solar magnetic patches.
result GAN-SVM combination enables smooth changes in physical parameters with generated patches.
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful adaptation to the new host leads to a pandemic. Despite expensive bio-surveillance ef…
In compressed sensing problems, ℓ1 minimization or Basis Pursuit was known to have the best provable phase transition performance of recoverable sparsity among polynomial-time algorithms. It is of great theoretical and practical interest to find alternative polynomial-time algorithms which perform better than $\e…
This paper examines how investors mislearn factor risk premia under structural breaks in a misspecified Bayesian framework.
problem Investors' mislearning of factor risk premia under structural breaks in asset pricing models.
method Proposes a minimal Bayesian framework to study how investors learn under a misspecified model that underestimates structural breaks.
result Elevated mislearning is associated with stronger long-horizon returns and Sharpe ratios, consistent with an equilibrium premium for acute model uncertainty.
Paper presents a new method for better financial market forecasting.
problem Traditional investment strategies fail to capture market nuances and risks.
method Combines deep learning, factor integration, and correlated stock analysis.
result Enhanced diversification and performance capture in financial markets.
The principal submatrix localization problem deals with recovering a K×K principal submatrix of elevated mean μ in a large n×n symmetric matrix subject to additive standard Gaussian noise. This problem serves as a prototypical example for community detection, in which the community corresponds to the …
We report the first, to the best of our knowledge, hand-in-hand collaboration between human rights activists and machine learners, leveraging crowd-sourcing to study online abuse against women on Twitter. On a technical front, we carefully curate an unbiased yet low-variance dataset of labeled tweets, analyze it to acc…
Bayesian methods reduce variance in subspace identification for small data sets.
problem High variance in traditional subspace identification methods for large models or small sample sizes.
method Investigation of Bayesian estimation solutions (regularized and shrinkage estimators) for subspace identification.
result Bayesian estimators reduce estimation risk by up to 40% compared to traditional methods.
Estimating the level set of a signal from measurements is a task that arises in a variety of fields, including medical imaging, astronomy, and digital elevation mapping. Motivated by scenarios where accurate and complete measurements of the signal may not available, we examine here a simple procedure for estimating the…
The paper characterizes isomorphic covers of surfaces and applies it to distinguish representations.
problem Characterizing isomorphic covers of surfaces and distinguishing representations.
method Effective characterization of covers using curves with bounded self-intersection number.
result The set of unmarked traces distinguishes between non-isomorphic covers for large N.
We consider the problem of identifying multiway block structure from a large noisy tensor. Such problems arise frequently in applications such as genomics, recommendation system, topic modeling, and sensor network localization. We propose a tensor block model, develop a unified least-square estimation, and obtain the t…
LSTM models with DI enhance streamflow forecasts across diverse regions.
problem Challenges in integrating varied discharge measurements for accurate streamflow forecasts.
method Flexible data integration (DI) using LSTM models with CNN units for lagged inputs.
result DI significantly improved streamflow forecast performance, reaching record efficiency coefficients.
New proof shows surfaces can have identical length spectra but not simple ones.
problem Identifying when two covers of a surface have identical length spectra but not simple ones.
method Characterized isomorphism of covers and constructed surfaces with identical spectra but different simple length spectra.
result Found surfaces with identical length spectra but not simple length isospectral covers.
Study characterizes cryospheric spectral feature space using joint PC+t-SNE approach.
problem Characterize cryospheric spectral feature space for remote sensing applications.
method Compare and contrast two approaches for identifying feature space basis vectors via dimensionality reduction (PCA and t-SNE).
result Joint characterization reveals distinct continua and clusters of ice reflectance properties.
Breiman discusses two statistical cultures, advocating for more research on 'before' and 'after' the black box.
problem Statistical modeling lacks exploration of processes before and after the 'black box'.
method Analyzes Breiman's visual metaphor of two statistical cultures.
result Promotes the importance of studying the 'before' and 'after' of data transformations.
We construct a tangent bundle exponential map and locally autoparallel coordinates for geometries based on a general connection on the tangent bundle of a manifold. As concrete application we use these new coordinates for Finslerian geometries and obtain Finslerian geodesic coordinates. They generalise normal coordinat…
A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when compu…
CNNs can develop blind spots due to uneven padding in feature maps.
problem Spatial bias in convolutional networks leads to blind spots in certain tasks.
method Identified and analyzed the role of padding in convolutional networks, proposing solutions to mitigate bias.
result Mitigating spatial bias improves model accuracy, especially in tasks like small object detection.
New algorithm learns HMM parameters on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Learning hidden Markov models on non-Euclidean spaces.
method Geometric method of moments algorithm for Riemannian manifolds.
result Significantly improved speed and accuracy compared to existing methods.
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
problem Understanding and optimizing margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
method Empirical analysis using generalized extreme value theory and BitMEX data.
result Margin requirements need to be significantly higher to reduce daily margin calls.
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…
Bayesian deep learning improves deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.
problem Overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types in deep learning.
method Revisits strengths of Bayesian deep learning and addresses challenges.
result Bayesian deep learning can elevate deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.
Model explains yield curve dynamics using order flow shocks.
problem Understanding the yield curve's fluctuations and their relation to order flows.
method Relates exogenous shocks to order flow surprises, creating a microstructural model that incorporates price and order flow dynamics.
result The model explains yield curve dynamics with fewer parameters and generates liquidity-dependent correlations.
We investigate the dynamics of a trust game on a mixed population where individuals with the role of buyers are forced to play against a predetermined number of sellers, whom they choose dynamically. Agents with the role of sellers are also allowed to adapt the level of value for money of their products, based on payof…
Derives a dual equation for various option types, leading to new pricing and hedging insights.
problem Pricing and hedging of various option types.
method Derives a dual equation with the same form as the Black-Scholes-Merton equation, applicable to homogeneous degree one payoffs.
result Provides simple analytic formulas for delta and gamma, and reveals put-call equality for various options.
Benchmark evaluates financial misinformation detection models, revealing weaknesses without external context.
problem Detecting financial misinformation without external references.
method RFC Bench at paragraph level, two tasks: reference-free detection and comparison-based diagnosis.
result Performance improves with comparative context, revealing model weaknesses in reference-free settings.
We detail our ongoing work in Flint, Michigan to detect pipes made of lead and other hazardous metals. After elevated levels of lead were detected in residents' drinking water, followed by an increase in blood lead levels in area children, the state and federal governments directed over $125 million to replace water se…
We present results from a set of experiments in this pilot study to investigate the causal influence of user activity on various environmental parameters monitored by occupant carried multi-purpose sensors. Hypotheses with respect to each type of measurements are verified, including temperature, humidity, and light lev…
The study reveals distinct patterns in retail investors' holding periods affecting stock returns.
problem Understanding the impact of retail investors' investment horizons on stock returns.
method Using self-reported holding periods from StockTwits, the study categorizes retail investors into long-horizon and short-horizon groups and analyzes their return patterns.
result Long-horizon retail investors exhibit underreaction to earnings announcements, while short-horizon investors show overreaction.
In this paper we study asymptotic behavior of n-superharmonic functions at isolated singularity using the Wolff potential and n-capacity estimates in nonlinear potential theory. Our results are inspired by and extend those of Arsove-Huber and Taliaferro in 2 dimensions. To study n-superharmonic functions we use a…