A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Transform drift of diffusions without knowing if measure change is a martingale.
URGE improves diffusion model quality without gradients or Hessian.
The paper simplifies calculus for semimartingales using multiplicative compensation.
One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framew…
Develops a model for bid and ask prices using stochastic control.
A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.
Develops a new model for pricing without arbitrage opportunities.
We develop a technique based on Malliavin-Bismut calculus ideas, for asymptotic expansion of dual control problems arising in connection with exponential indifference valuation of claims, and with minimisation of relative entropy, in incomplete markets. The problems involve optimisation of a functional of Brownian path…
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
Framework for transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure.
In a 2006 article (\cite{A1}), Allouba gave his quadratic covariation differentiation theory for Itô's integral calculus. He defined the derivative of a semimartingale with respect to a Brownian motion as the time derivative of their quadratic covariation and a generalization thereof. He then obtained a systematic diff…
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
One way to interpret smoothness of a measure in infinite dimensions is quasi-invariance of the measure under a class of transformations. Usually such settings lack a reference measure such as the Lebesgue or Haar measure, and therefore we can not use smoothness of a density with respect to such a measure. We describe h…
Improved reSGLD accelerates convergence in non-convex learning problems.
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk premium is tail risk aversion. We parametrize such risk aversion in terms of thre…
This work analyzes discrete diffusion models using stochastic integrals, providing error bounds and insights.
We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the Girsanov theorem, we start from the reference measure where the intensity is equal to…
The paper uses machine learning and Lie groups to improve rating transitions and XVA calculations.
G-framework is presented by Peng [41] for measure risk under uncertainty. In this paper, we define fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm). Fractional G-Brownian motion is a centered G-Gaussian process with zero mean and stationary increments in the sense of sub-linearity with Hurst index . This process has sta…
In this paper, we compare static and dynamic (reduced form) approaches for modeling wrong-way risk in the context of CVA. Although all these approaches potentially suffer from arbitrage problems, they are popular (respectively) in industry and academia, mainly due to analytical tractability reasons. We complete the sto…
Unified error analysis for discrete flow models.
We apply a quadratic hedging scheme developed by Foellmer, Schweizer, and Sondermann to European contingent products whose underlying asset is modeled using a GARCH process and show that local risk-minimizing strategies with respect to the physical measure do exist, even though an associated minimal martingale measure …
We propose different schemes for option hedging when asset returns are modeled using a general class of GARCH models. More specifically, we implement local risk minimization and a minimum variance hedge approximation based on an extended Girsanov principle that generalizes Duan's (1995) delta hedge. Since the minimal m…
We obtain option pricing formulas for stock price models in which the drift and volatility terms are functionals of a continuous history of the stock prices. That is, the stock dynamics follows a nonlinear stochastic functional differential equation. A model with full memory is obtained via approximation through a stoc…
This paper conditions non-linear infinite-dimensional diffusion processes.
In Liang et al (2009), the current authors demonstrated that BSDEs can be reformulated as functional differential equations, and as an application, they solved BSDEs on general filtered probability spaces. In this paper the authors continue the study of functional differential equations and demonstrate how such approac…
Proposes a method to estimate SDE noise from a single trajectory.
GADD accelerates uniform-rate discrete diffusion models by 2 orders of magnitude.
The paper provides privacy guarantees for MCMC algorithms using Langevin dynamics.
Paper shows minimum observation time for network recovery.
Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…
Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.
This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider locally absolutely continuous measure changes up to a random time, changes of probabil…
New PAC-Bayes bounds derived using Legendre transform and f-divergences.
We study the stability of several no-arbitrage conditions with respect to absolutely continuous, but not necessarily equivalent, changes of measure. We first consider models based on continuous semimartingales and show that no-arbitrage conditions weaker than NA and NFLVR are always stable. Then, in the context of gene…
MINDE estimates Mutual Information using neural diffusion models.
Introduces Neural-Brownian Motion for modeling dynamics under learned uncertainty.
We study exponential Levy models with change-point which is a random variable, independent from initial Levy processes. On canonical space with initially enlarged filtration we describe all equivalent martingale measures for change-point model and we give the conditions for the existence of f-divergence minimal equival…
The rBergomi model is improved with a regime switching change of measure to match market VIX smiles.
We derive measure change formulae required to price midcurve swaptions in the forward swap annuity measure with stochastic annuities' ratios. We construct the corresponding linear and exponential terminal swap rate pricing models and show how they capture the midcurve swaption correlation skew.
Corrects technical error in change of measure for HTB models.
Unified analysis of KL divergence using shifted composition for sampling.
New method detects changes online with bounds on delay.
Machine learning improves measuring climate adaptation impacts.
Develops methods to simulate option prices for a specific stochastic volatility model.
From a sequence of similarity networks, with edges representing certain similarity measures between nodes, we are interested in detecting a change-point which changes the statistical property of the networks. After the change, a subset of anomalous nodes which compares dissimilarly with the normal nodes. We study a sim…
The paper develops a new formula for financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
Score matching errors are not sufficient for measuring diffusion model quality.