A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Convolutional networks struggle to learn Game of Life, even with lottery ticket weights.
We introduce gym-city, a Reinforcement Learning environment that uses SimCity 1's game engine to simulate an urban environment, wherein agents might seek to optimize one or a combination of any number of city-wide metrics, on gameboards of various sizes. We focus on population, and analyze our agents' ability to genera…
Recent breakthroughs in AI for multi-agent games like Go, Poker, and Dota, have seen great strides in recent years. Yet none of these games address the real-life challenge of cooperation in the presence of unknown and uncertain teammates. This challenge is a key game mechanism in hidden role games. Here we develop the …
Real life hedging in the Black-Scholes model must be imperfect and if the stock's drift is higher than the risk free rate, leads to a profit on average. Hence the option price is examined as a fair game agreement between the parties, based on expected payoffs and a simple measure of risk. The resulting prices result in…
The paper adds explanation to predictive process monitoring.
The emergence of complex life on Earth is often attributed to the arms race that ensued from a huge number of organisms all competing for finite resources. We present an artificial intelligence research environment, inspired by the human game genre of MMORPGs (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games, a.k.a. MMO…
Constant and symmetric price impact functions, most commonly used in agent-based market modelling, are shown to give rise to paradoxical and inconsistent outcomes in the simplest case of arbitrage exploitation when open-hold-close actions are considered. The solution of the paradox lies in the non-constant nature of re…
A new reward learning module improves imitation learning in high-dimensional environments.
Study of repeated games with unobserved agent rewards using MAB framework.
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a learning paradigm concerned with learning to control a system so as to maximize an objective over the long term. This approach to learning has received immense interest in recent times and success manifests itself in the form of human-level performance on games like \textit{Go}. While R…
All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the example of project management. This is a game with two players, one of which is…
We determine how an individual can use life insurance to meet a bequest goal. We assume that the individual's consumption is met by an income, such as a pension, life annuity, or Social Security. Then, we consider the wealth that the individual wants to devote towards heirs (separate from any wealth related to the afor…
Understanding the influence of features in machine learning is crucial to interpreting models and selecting the best features for classification. In this work we propose the use of principles from coalitional game theory to reason about importance of features. In particular, we propose the use of the Banzhaf power inde…
The paper revisits and applies FTAP to life insurance and annuities pricing.
Humans are capable of attributing latent mental contents such as beliefs or intentions to others. The social skill is critical in daily life for reasoning about the potential consequences of others' behaviors so as to plan ahead. It is known that humans use such reasoning ability recursively by considering what others …
The study examines how different interpolation methods affect the decomposition of life insurance surplus.
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
In this paper, we study a stochastic optimal control problem with stochastic volatility. We prove the sufficient and necessary maximum principle for the proposed problem. Then we apply the results to solve an investment, consumption and life insurance problem with stochastic volatility, that is, we consider a wage earn…
Optimizes capital structure for life insurance companies with surplus participation.
Investigates optimal life insurance and annuity decisions in inflationary economies.
Two-dimensional transition rates improve life insurance reserve calculations.
This text is intended to become in the long run Chapter 3 of our long saga dedicated to Riemann, Ahlfors and Rohlin. Yet, as its contents evolved as mostly independent (due to our inaptitude to interconnect both trends as strongly as we wished), it seemed preferable to publish it separately. More factually, our account…
A competition increases financial transaction models' robustness against attacks.
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
This paper explores how machine learning can improve life insurance risk assessment.
LIFE framework improves model accuracy and interpretability.
For surfaces, we brush a reasonably sharp picture of the influence of the fundamental group upon the complexity of foliated-dynamics. A metaphor emerges with phase-changes through the solid-liquid-gaseous states. Groups of ranks are frozen with intransitivity reigning ubiquitously. When , th…
Neural planners for RDDL MDPs produce deep reactive policies in an offline fashion. These scale well with large domains, but are sample inefficient and time-consuming to train from scratch for each new problem. To mitigate this, recent work has studied neural transfer learning, so that a generic planner trained on othe…
Investigates timing and asset allocation for life insurance in uncertain financial planning.
New formulas estimate life insurance benefits with less computation.
We determine the optimal strategies for purchasing term life insurance and for investing in a risky financial market in order to maximize the probability of reaching a bequest goal while consuming from an investment account. We extend Bayraktar and Young (2015) by allowing the individual to purchase term life insurance…
Paper presents content-based models for game recommendation in cold start scenarios.
The paper optimizes investment strategies with constraints for life-cycle models.
We provide a novel approach and an exploratory study for modelling life event choices and occurrence from a probabilistic perspective through causal discovery and survival analysis. Our approach is formulated as a bi-level problem. In the upper level, we build the life events graph, using causal discovery tools. In the…
In this work, we ask the following question: Can visual analogies, learned in an unsupervised way, be used in order to transfer knowledge between pairs of games and even play one game using an agent trained for another game? We attempt to answer this research question by creating visual analogies between a pair of game…
Reinsurance can help life insurers maintain higher capital guarantees without losing utility.
Potential games, originally introduced in the early 1990's by Lloyd Shapley, the 2012 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and his colleague Dov Monderer, are a very important class of models in game theory. They have special properties such as the existence of Nash equilibria in pure strategies. This note introduces graphical…
We obtain various estimates of the life-time of two-dimensional minimal tubes in R^3 by potential theory methods.
IGGP learns game rules from varying quality game play, finding no overall trend.
Deep RL drone trained to compete against classical path planning in drone racing.
We consider the problem of how an individual can use term life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal, an important problem in financial planning. We assume that the individual buys instantaneous term life insurance with a premium payable continuously. By contrast with Bayraktar et al. (…
In this paper we investigate the life-span of classical solutions to the hyperbolic geometric flow in two space variables with slow decay initial data. By establishing some new estimates on the solutions of linear wave equations in two space variables, we give a lower bound of the life-span of classical solutions to th…
We introduce a topological combinatorial game called the Region Smoothing Swap Game. The game is played on a game board derived from the connected shadow of a link diagram on a (possibly non-orientable) surface by smoothing at crossings. Moves in the game are performed on regions of the diagram and can switch the direc…
We present a new general board game (GBG) playing and learning framework. GBG defines the common interfaces for board games, game states and their AI agents. It allows one to run competitions of different agents on different games. It standardizes those parts of board game playing and learning that otherwise would be t…
The paper analyzes multivariate payments in multi-state life insurance using Markovian state processes.
The paper analyzes optimal investment strategies for life insurance contracts using mean-variance optimization.
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and who can purchase a reversible life annuity. The surrender charge of a life annuity is a proportion of its value. Ruin occurs when the total of the value of the risky and riskless assets and t…
We use the maximum entropy principle for pricing the non-life insurance and recover the Bühlmann results for the economic premium principle. The concept of economic equilibrium is revised in this respect.