The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income distribution and its evolution and a simple functional relationship between the…
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48 results for “GDP/capita”
Real GDP per capita since 1870q-fin.GN
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a con…
In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest develo…
GDP growth rate and populationq-fin.GN
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40 years. The second term is inherently related to population and defined by the rel…
A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through time. The second compone…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35 years ? from 1967 to 2003. A microeconomic model linking personal income, populat…
Survival analysis models predict economic convergence across Americas.
problem Analyzing GDP per capita trajectories and convergence across the Americas.
method Survival analysis, machine learning, economic interpretation.
result DeepSurv captures non-linear interactions in GDP per capita trajectories.
Historical income per capita data follow hyperbolic growth patterns.
problem Economic stagnation and Malthusian traps in historical data.
method Fitting hyperbolic distributions to GDP/capita and population data.
result Income per capita growth was monotonic and without transitions.
Study confirms link between unemployment and real GDP growth in developed countries.
problem Predicting unemployment based on real GDP growth in developed nations.
method Revised Okun's law using real GDP per capita and unemployment rate data from 2010-2019.
result Accurate prediction of unemployment rate changes using real GDP growth rate.
This study uses machine learning to predict sovereign credit ratings and identifies key factors.
problem Predicting sovereign credit ratings and identifying important factors.
method Used Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Ordered Logit (OL) models.
result MLP is the best model for predicting sovereign credit ratings with a 68% accuracy.
Why is GDP growth linear?q-fin.GN
In many European countries the growth of the real GDP per capita has been linear since 1950. An explanation for this linearity is still missing. We propose that in artificial intelligence we may find models for a linear growth of performance. We also discuss possible consequences of the fact that in systems with linear…
The study revises GDPpc trends and redistributes economic power among countries.
problem Analyzing global economic power shifts over time.
method Modeling GDPpc as a trend and fluctuations, analyzing historical data.
result Revised GDPpc trends show significant shifts in global economic power.
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after …
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant . We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …
The evolution of personal income distribution (PID) in four countries: Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the USA follows a unique trajectory. We have revealed precise match in the shape of two age-dependent features of the PID: mean income and the portion of people with the highest incomes (2 to 5% of the working age po…
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is that the distribution of GDP grow…
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New result…
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
China's wage growth syncs with GDP, unlike in developed countries.
problem Wage growth decoupling from GDP in developed countries.
method Comparative statistical evidence and productivity growth analysis.
result Rural flight from agriculture to manufacturing drives productivity growth in China.
Study analyzes GDP growth of CEE countries using time-varying coefficients.
problem Understanding GDP growth patterns of CEE countries post-integration.
method Panel regression with time-varying coefficients.
result Private debt plays a crucial role in economic growth.
A simpler measure of economic complexity derived from product diversity.
problem Economic growth theory's reliance on GDP as the sole indicator of a country's capabilities.
method Log Product Diversity (LPD) derived from a combinatorial model of production.
result LPD better predicts economic growth than conventional variables like GDP and human capital.
Convergence and cluster structures in EU area according to fluctuations in macroeconomic indicesq-fin.GN
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a secondary economic variable. In…
A new algorithm of the analysis of correlation among economy time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the power law classification scheme (PLCS) followed by the analysis of the network on the percolation threshold (NPT). The algorithm was applied to the analysis of correlations among GDP per capita time serie…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real GDP per capita. All empirical relationships estimated in this study need a struc…
Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The link needs the introduction of a structural break which might be caused by the c…
The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been observed. To find an explanation for this observation I consider the impact of utility…
Data mining revealed a cluster of economic, psychological, social and cultural indicators that in combination predicted corruption and wealth of European nations. This prosperity syndrome of self-reliant citizens, efficient division of labor, a sophisticated scientific community, and respect for the law, was clearly di…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of income production and dissipation for any person above 15 years of age. The model…
Dynamic clustering for time series data with evolving memberships.
problem Clustering multivariate time series data with dynamic membership changes.
method Dynamic Linear Models and Dirichlet evolution for mixture weights, with Gibbs sampling and efficient point estimation methods.
result Efficient dynamic clustering of time series data with evolving memberships.
One of the first steps to understand and forecast economic downturns is identifying their frequency distribution, but it remains uncertain. This problem is common in phenomena displaying power-law-like distributions. Power laws play a central role in complex systems theory; therefore, the current limitations in the ide…
The paper analyzes growth rates and volatility in the 20th century.
problem Understanding the relationship between economic growth and volatility.
method Analyzes historical data of GDP per capita growth rates and volatility.
result A significant negative scale-relation between volatility and size of countries emerged after 1956.
Thermodynamic description of world GDP distribution over countriescond-mat.stat-mech
The world GDP distribution is described using thermodynamics principles.
problem Understanding the distribution of GDP among countries.
method Applied Rayleigh-Jeans thermalization to GDP data.
result Emergence of low GDP states similar to condensation in optics.
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to reduce the Debt/GDP ratio, countries with high Debt to GDP should go into further …
The paper gauges AGI's impact on GDP growth using mathematical metrics.
problem Determining the economic effect of AGI on GDP growth.
method Analysis of historical data, development of a new mathematical algorithm, regression analysis.
result There is a positive correlation between AGI growth and real GDP growth.
Principled mapping from pure-DP ε to GDP μ for Gaussian differential privacy
problem Choosing the μ parameter in Gaussian differential privacy
method Matching the worst-case success of a membership inference attack
result Recommendation of μ ≈ ε/5 as a conservative general-purpose conversion
The study finds that the export shares of machinery and food/crude materials are significantly correlated with GDP.
problem Understanding the relationship between export shares and GDP across different commodity sectors.
method Analysis of GDP and international trade data using the SITC classification from 1962 to 2000.
result The export shares of machinery and food/crude materials are significantly correlated with GDP, following a power-law relationship.
Global inequality in energy consumption from 1980 to 2010physics.data-an
We study the global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 1980-2010. We find that the Lorenz curves have moved up during this time period, and the Gini coefficient G has decreased from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.55 in 2010,…
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures production, and suggest that in reality it merely captures changes in the rate o…
This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than…
What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the trends of subjective wellbeing in our sample of countries. In the short-term this rel…
Proposes a graph dynamics prior for more accurate relational inference.
problem Identifying interactions in dynamical systems from observed dynamics.
method Graph Dynamics Prior (GDP) that uses error amplification in non-local polynomial filters.
result Reconstructs graphs more accurately than previous methods, robust to under-sampling.
Unified approach for multimodal data prediction using synthetic data generation.
problem Challenges in integrating heterogeneous data types for accurate predictive performance.
method Generative Distribution Prediction (GDP) framework that uses multimodal synthetic data generation.
result Empirical validation across four tasks demonstrates versatility and effectiveness of GDP.
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
problem High dependency on oil and low renewable energy penetration in MENA region.
method Analysis of World Bank datasets and policy portfolio in MENA countries.
result MENA region has high potential for solar energy but faces challenges in decoupling economic growth from energy consumption.
Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regionsq-fin.GN
Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimu…
Galor's mysterious income growth rate is debunked, revealing data manipulation.
problem Mysterious sudden spurt in income per capita growth rate.
method Mathematical analysis of historical world economic growth data.
result The sudden spurt in income per capita growth rate is an artifact of data presentation.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
problem Describing and predicting international trade flows between countries.
method Formulated a coulomb force model where GDP represents charge and distance is influenced by various factors.
result Developed a trade strength distribution equation that fits real-world data well.