Paper introduces Functional Effects Models to account for individual heterogeneity in panel data.
problem Accounting for preference heterogeneity in panel data with machine learning.
method Functional Effects Models using gradient boosting decision trees and deep neural networks to learn individual-specific preference parameters.
result Functional Effects Models outperform traditional models in learning inter-individual heterogeneity and predictive performance.
Models which estimate main effects of individual variables alongside interaction effects have an identifiability challenge: effects can be freely moved between main effects and interaction effects without changing the model prediction. This is a critical problem for interpretability because it permits "contradictory" m…
New method for interpreting non-linear models using forward marginal effects.
problem Interpreting non-linear models' feature effects is challenging.
method Introducing forward marginal effects and partitioning feature space for better interpretation.
result Improved interpretation of non-linear prediction functions.
The link between different psychophysiological measures during emotion episodes is not well understood. To analyse the functional relationship between electroencephalography (EEG) and facial electromyography (EMG), we apply historical function-on-function regression models to EEG and EMG data that were simultaneously r…
Recently, researchers have started decomposing deep neural network models according to their semantics or functions. Recent work has shown the effectiveness of decomposed functional blocks for defending adversarial attacks, which add small input perturbation to the input image to fool the DNN models. This work proposes…
Function trees simplify complex ML models for better understanding.
problem Understanding and interpreting machine learning model predictions.
method Representing a multivariate function as a tree of simpler functions.
result Function trees reveal the global internal structure of functions.
New method estimates causal effects in complex spaces using topological structures.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects in non-Euclidean spaces.
method Developed a topological causal inference framework using power-weighted silhouette functions of persistence diagrams.
result Successfully quantifies topological treatment effects across various complex outcomes.
Influence functions estimate the effect of removing a training point on a model without the need to retrain. They are based on a first-order Taylor approximation that is guaranteed to be accurate for sufficiently small changes to the model, and so are commonly used to study the effect of individual points in large data…
Proposes FOAGP for efficient orthogonal effect decomposition of black-box computer experiments.
problem Challenges in sensitivity analysis of black-box computer experiments with complex, nonlinear functional outputs.
method Functional-output orthogonal additive Gaussian process (FOAGP) with conditional orthogonality constraint.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in orthogonal effect decomposition and variance decomposition through simulations and real-world application.
FOCaL meta-learner estimates functional treatment effects robustly.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from functional outcomes.
method Doubly robust meta-learner FOCaL integrating functional regression.
result Direct and robust estimation of F-CATE.
TabCF simplifies causal inference for distributional effects.
problem Estimating causal effects with unmeasured confounding.
method Control function regression using tabular foundation models.
result Accurate, fast, and transparent causal estimation of distributional quantities.
Bayesian approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in RDD designs.
problem Heterogeneity in treatment effects in RDD designs can lead to misleading conclusions.
method Direct Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.
result Flexibly captures complicated structures of heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of covariates.
Extends SGM to functional spaces for multimodal data.
problem Modeling densities in functional spaces.
method Represent data in spectral space, dissociate stochastic and space-time components, use SGM for sampling.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on multimodal datasets.
New methods for estimating causal effects in hidden variable DAGs.
problem Estimating causal effects in models with hidden variables.
method Influence function based estimators for causal effects in hidden variable DAGs.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bounds for identifiable effects.
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
problem Capturing leverage effect in financial series.
method Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with Bayesian approach.
result Analytical expressions for TAR model moments derived.
New insights into neural network complexity reveal better generalization performance.
problem Mysterious generalization in deep models despite high parameter counts.
method Effective dimensionality as a measure of parameter space complexity.
result Double descent behavior in generalization as a function of parameters explained.
The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping hierarchy in the data. An important application of Tweedie mixed models is pricing …
New method interprets deep learning for causal effects, separating prognostic and moderating covariates.
problem Estimating individual causal/treatment effects under confounders.
method Deep counterfactual learning architecture for estimating CATE with interpretable score functions.
result Demonstrated improved interpretability and quantification of uncertainty in CATE estimation.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Method estimates treatment effects with continuous values, correcting for confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects with continuous values, dealing with confounding.
method Two-stage kernel ridge regression: first stage learns response, second stage corrects for distribution shift.
result Optimal learning bounds achieved without estimating treatment density, adapts to unknown overlap and kernel spectral decay.
This work relates the framework of model-based clustering for spatial functional data where the data are surfaces. We first introduce a Bayesian spatial spline regression model with mixed-effects (BSSR) for modeling spatial function data. The BSSR model is based on Nodal basis functions for spatial regression and accom…
Method estimates treatment effect bounds in sample selection models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in presence of sample selection.
method Debiased/double machine learning approach for non-linear and high-dimensional confounders.
result Substantially tighter effect bounds for younger users.
Combines boosting with Gaussian process and mixed effects models.
problem Model misspecifications and independence assumptions in boosting.
method Relaxes zero or linearity assumption in Gaussian process and mixed effects models, and independence assumption in boosting.
result Increased prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches.
Adaptive LASSO improves model selection for functional geostatistical data.
problem Modeling georeferenced data with spatiotemporal dynamics and functional coefficients.
method Penalized maximum likelihood estimator with adaptive LASSO penalty for simultaneous selection of spline basis functions and regressors.
result The penalized estimator outperforms the unpenalized estimator in all scenarios tested.
Study higher-order spin glass models for social network behavior with peer-group effects.
problem Modeling correlation phenomena on social networks with peer-group effects.
method Inference in higher-order Ising models to recover coefficients and peer-group effects.
result Strong concavity of log pseudo-likelihood implies statistical error rate of sqrt(d/n) for MPLE.
Bayesian method estimates QTEs from observational data.
problem Estimating nuanced characteristics of counterfactual distributions.
method Bayesian semiparametric conditional distribution regression model with double balancing score.
result Proposed method provides more accurate QTE estimates than other methods.
New scalarizing functions improve multi-objective Bayesian optimisation.
problem Improving multi-objective Bayesian optimisation efficiency.
method Comparing two infill criteria based on hypervolume improvement.
result Effective scalarizing functions enhance hypervolume maximisation.
Bayesian neural networks with data augmentation show a persistent cold posterior effect.
problem Understanding the cold posterior effect in Bayesian neural networks with data augmentation.
method Developed principled Bayesian neural networks using data augmentation, providing exact likelihoods and tight bounds.
result The cold posterior effect persists even in models incorporating data augmentation, suggesting it's not an artifact.
BENK estimates treatment effects with neural kernels for censored data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored time-to-event data.
method Proposes a method using the Beran estimator with neural kernels for survival functions.
result Shows improved accuracy compared to existing methods in various scenarios.
R package xtdml uses DML for panel data models with fixed effects.
problem Estimating structural parameters in panel data models with fixed effects.
method Combines machine learning with statistical estimation for inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance in learning nuisance functions.
We provide adaptive inference methods, based on ℓ1 regularization, for regular (semi-parametric) and non-regular (nonparametric) linear functionals of the conditional expectation function. Examples of regular functionals include average treatment effects, policy effects, and derivatives. Examples of non-regular f…
It is shown how the generating functional method of De Dominicis can be used to solve the dynamics of the original version of the minority game (MG), in which agents observe real as opposed to fake market histories. Here one again finds exact closed equations for correlation and response functions, but now these are de…
ALTBI enhances outlier detection by maximizing the inlier-memorization effect.
problem Improving outlier detection models via optimization of inlier-memorization effect.
method ALTBI introduces two techniques: increasing mini-batch size and using adaptive threshold for truncated loss function.
result ALTBI achieves state-of-the-art performance in identifying outliers with lower computation costs.
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
problem Nonlinear relationships in grouped data.
method Replaced linear function with neural networks.
result Improved performance on synthetic and real-world data.
Study shows how to effectively predict functions on manifolds using kernel methods.
problem Regression on manifolds with limited data.
method Reproducing kernel Hilbert space methods, Weyl law, effective dimension.
result Kernel regression estimator yields minimax-optimal error bounds controlled by effective dimension.
We consider the problem of learning a loss function which, when minimized over a training dataset, yields a model that approximately minimizes a validation error metric. Though learning an optimal loss function is NP-hard, we present an anytime algorithm that is asymptotically optimal in the worst case, and is provably…
Study functional confounders in causal inference, enabling estimable effects.
problem Causal inference challenges with functional confounders violating positivity.
method Functional interventions, functional positivity, gradient fields, Level-set Orthogonal Descent Estimation (LODE).
result Valid causal effect estimation under certain conditions.
Paper develops a new estimator for dynamic treatment effects in high-dimensional settings.
problem Time-varying confounding and model misspecification in estimating dynamic treatment effects.
method Sequential model doubly robust estimator with moment-targeting estimates.
result Root-N inference achieved under model misspecification, even with high-dimensional covariates.
A new method uses deep learning to efficiently sample rare transitions for estimating committor functions.
problem Efficiently sampling rare transitions to estimate committor functions in high-dimensional problems.
method DASTR (Deep Adaptive Sampling on Transition Paths) method using deep generative models.
result Significantly improved accuracy in approximating committor functions through efficient sampling.
IANN visualizes all input variables effects simultaneously.
problem Inability to visualize all input variables effects simultaneously in black-box functions.
method Interpretable Architecture Neural Network (IANN) approach.
result Visualization of all input variables effects directly and simultaneously.
fmeffects package interprets non-linear models in plain language.
problem Interpreting complex non-linear models.
method Forward marginal effects for model-agnostic explanations.
result First software implementation of forward marginal effects.
Bayesian optimization has proven to be a highly effective methodology for the global optimization of unknown, expensive and multimodal functions. The ability to accurately model distributions over functions is critical to the effectiveness of Bayesian optimization. Although Gaussian processes provide a flexible prior o…
A new tree-based estimator, FastPD, efficiently estimates PD functions for machine learning models.
problem Efficiently estimating Partial Dependence functions for machine learning models.
method Proposes a new tree-based estimator, FastPD, to estimate PD functions.
result FastPD consistently estimates the desired population quantity and improves complexity from quadratic to linear.
Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence the treatment called instrumental variables (IVs). We study variables constructed …
Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine-learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely fle…
New method reduces bias in estimating causal effects from discretized variables.
problem Bias in estimating causal effects from discretized continuous variables.
method Proposes a bias-reduced functional that evaluates outcome regression at within-bin conditional means.
result Demonstrates substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage.
Proposes a new method to estimate continuous treatment policies and match treatments effectively.
problem Current methods struggle with continuous treatment policies and complex matching.
method Formulates treatment effectiveness as a parametrizable model, using deep learning for optimization.
result Significant improvement in treatment effectiveness and matching efficiency.
QPE identifies causal effects without assuming mechanisms or noise.
problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data.
method Quantile Partial Effect (QPE) and Fisher Information.
result Causal directions can be distinguished using QPE and Fisher Information.