arXiv research

The paper proves the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in noisy data.

Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.

Study on estimating volatility of volatility using Fourier methods and provides insights into volatility dynamics.

SpotV2Net forecasts intraday spot volatilities using graph attention networks.

In this paper we present a slight modification of the Fourier estimation method of the spot volatility (matrix) process of a continuous Itô semimartingale where the estimators are always non-negative definite. Since the estimators are factorized, computational cost will be saved a lot.

In order to study the geometry of interest rates market dynamics, Malliavin, Mancino and Recchioni [A non-parametric calibration of the HJM geometry: an application of Itô calculus to financial statistics, {\it Japanese Journal of Mathematics}, 2, pp.55--77, 2007] introduced a scheme, which is based on the Fourier Seri…

Paper improves volatility estimation using a Queue-Reactive model.

Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.

Model captures rough volatility and jump clustering in stock vol dynamics.

Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.

A new model adds stochastic spot/volatility correlation to Heston model for better exotic pricing.

TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.

Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. T…

Estimates volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency options data.

New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.

We derive the price of a spread option based on two assets which follow a bivariate volatility modulated Volterra process dynamics. Such a price dynamics is particularly relevant in energy markets, modelling for example the spot price of power and gas. Volatility modulated Volterra processes are in general not semimart…

We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…

This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled di…

Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.

Paper proposes a new covariance estimator ensuring positive semi-definite matrices.

Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.

Improved pricing of vanilla options using modified Adams method and sinh-acceleration.

It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This result has been established using high frequency volatility estimations from histor…

We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatil…

Study compares volatility models for Bitcoin, finds GARCH and EGARCH outperform.

It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper inv…

The paper introduces a new volatility model using Fourier techniques for pricing and hedging.

The paper studies Fourier-Laplace transforms in polynomial OU volatility models for option pricing.

The study examines volatility models and finds decoupling of short- and long-term correlation structures.

We prove that if the Black-Scholes formula holds with the spot volatility for call options with all strikes, then the volatility parameter is constant. The proof relies some result on semimartingales (Theorem 2) of independent interest.

Kernel Estimation is one of the most widely used estimation methods in non-parametric Statistics, having a wide-range of applications, including spot volatility estimation of stochastic processes. The selection of bandwidth and kernel function is of great importance, especially for the finite sample settings commonly e…

Paper develops new spot regression estimators using candlesticks for asset pricing.

The stochastic leverage effect, defined as the standardized covariation between the returns and their related volatility, is analyzed in a stochastic volatility model set-up. A novel estimator of the effect is defined using a pre-estimation of the Fourier coefficients of the return and the volatility processes. The con…

For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and speed in the mean reversion of both the price and the volatility. The risk premium i…

We derive a higher-order expansion for rough volatility models.

By Gyongy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility (LSV) model is calibrated to the market prices of all European call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire local volatility function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic v…

We consider a class of stochastic path-dependent volatility models where the stochastic volatility, whose square follows the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, is multiplied by a (leverage) function of the spot price, its running maximum, and time. We propose a Monte Carlo simulation scheme which combines a log-Euler scheme for…

Study examines asymmetry impacts on Japanese stock market volatility modeling and forecasting.

The paper speeds up and improves pricing and calibration for the rough Heston model.

In this paper, we derive the price of a European call option of an asset following a normal process assuming stochastic volatility. The volatility is assumed to follow the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) process. We then use the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to evaluate the option price given we know the characteristic functio…

New framework improves option pricing models by addressing volatility dynamics.

We study the volatility functional inference by Fourier transforms. This spectral framework is advantageous in that it harnesses the power of harmonic analysis to handle missing data and asynchronous observations without any artificial time alignment nor data imputation. Under conditions, this spectral approach is cons…

It is known that Heston's stochastic volatility model exhibits moment explosion, and that the critical moment $s_+$ can be obtained by solving (numerically) a simple equation. This yields a leading order expansion for the implied volatility at large strikes: $σ_{BS}( k,T)^{2}T\sim Ψ(s_+-1) \times k$ (Roger Lee's moment…

Let $σ_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity $t$ for a strike $K=S_0 e^{xt}$, where $x\in\bbR$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the underlying. We show that $σ_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity $t$ tends to infinity, given by the formula $σ_\infty(x)=\sqrt{2}(h^*(x)^{1/2}+(h^*(x)-x)^{1/2})$, for…

We derive asymptotic expansions for option data to detect infinite variation volatility.

A new NUFFT method speeds up option pricing for various strikes.

New method for European option pricing faster and more robust.

This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity, with a prefactor which is comparable to the spot rate volatility. This suggests th…