Meta-learners improve causal effect estimation in small samples.
problem Estimating causal effects using machine learning methods.
method Sample-splitting and cross-fitting to reduce overfitting bias.
result Meta-learners' performance depends on sample size and estimation procedure.
New methods for estimating causal effects with limited overlap, using Stable Probability Weighting.
problem Estimating causal effects with limited overlap in multivalued treatments.
method Stable Probability Weighting (SPW) and Finite-Sample Stable Probability Weighting (FPW) methods.
result SPW and FPW provide practical solutions for estimating and inferring causal effects with limited overlap.
Estimates neural representation dimensionality from small sample sizes.
problem Estimating neural representation dimensionality from limited data.
method Proposed a bias-corrected estimator for participation ratio of eigenvalues.
result The estimator is more accurate with finite samples and noise.
We provide finite-sample analysis of a general framework for using k-nearest neighbor statistics to estimate functionals of a nonparametric continuous probability density, including entropies and divergences. Rather than plugging a consistent density estimate (which requires k→∞ as the sample size $n \to \in…
Estimates barycenter in geodesic spaces with finite sample bounds.
problem Estimating the barycenter of a distribution in geodesic spaces.
method Finite sample error bounds, Hoeffding- and Bernstein-type concentration inequalities, efficient algorithms.
result Statistical guarantees for efficient barycenter computation.
The paper sets sample complexity bounds for identifying LTI systems from a finite set.
problem Identifying an LTI system from a finite set of possible systems using trajectory data.
method Maximum likelihood estimator and information theory tools.
result Upper and lower bounds for sample complexity are derived, independent of stability assumption.
We improve maximum likelihood for location estimation in finite samples.
problem Estimating a parameter from samples with unknown or varying distribution.
method Use smoothed Fisher information for finite sample size and varying distributions.
result Recover optimal estimation theory for finite n and arbitrary f. Proposes a neural network method to combine nonprobability and probability survey samples.
problem Combining nonprobability and probability survey samples for accurate population mean estimation.
method Uses a deep neural network to estimate sampling scores from nonprobability samples and combines them with probability sample information.
result Proposed estimators improve robustness to parametric propensity-score misspecification, especially for nonlinear selection mechanisms.
Paper provides unbiased spectral moment estimates from finite data.
problem Challenges in estimating spectral moments from limited data.
method Dynamic programming approach to estimate spectral moments of kernel integral operator.
result Demonstrates consistency with theoretical spectra and practical utility in neural networks.
The OLS estimator optimally identifies stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
problem Identifying stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
method Finite-time analysis of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator for stable linear systems.
result The OLS estimator achieves optimal sample complexity for stable systems, matching existing lower bounds up to universal factors.
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
Improved mean estimation for symmetric distributions with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Estimating the mean of a symmetric distribution from samples.
method Using Fisher information rate for finite-sample guarantees.
result Finite-sample convergence close to subgaussian with variance 1/(n * I_r), where I_r is r-smoothed Fisher information.
Study non-parametric frequency-domain system identification from finite samples.
problem Frequency-domain system identification from limited data.
method Empirical Transfer Function Estimate (ETFE) under sub-Gaussian colored noise and stability assumptions.
result ETFE estimates are concentrated around true values with a finite-sample rate of Ntot−1/3 for all frequencies in the H∞ norm. We investigate the statistical complexity of estimating the parameters of a discrete-state Markov chain kernel from a single long sequence of state observations. In the finite case, we characterize (modulo logarithmic factors) the minimax sample complexity of estimation with respect to the operator infinity norm, while…
The paper studies how more data affects prediction risk in high-dimensional models.
problem The impact of increasing data on prediction risk in high-dimensional models.
method Derives central limit theorem and provides finite-sample distribution and confidence interval for prediction risk.
result Demonstrates 'more data hurt' phenomenon in high-dimensional least squares estimation.
Proposes a method to create shorter, more accurate prediction intervals.
problem Challenges in achieving both conditional validity and interval efficiency in complex settings.
method Uses a conformal-style calibration method for neural network responses, adjusting to empirical PIT distribution.
result Demonstrates better conditional calibration and shorter intervals than existing methods.
Unified method for MMD variance estimation improves accuracy and computational efficiency.
problem Variance estimation for MMD in nonparametric testing.
method Unified finite-sample characterization of MMD variance through U-statistic and Hoeffding decomposition; exact acceleration method for univariate case.
result Unified estimators improve accuracy and computational efficiency for MMD variance.
Estimates intrinsic dimension of data for GANs.
problem Estimating intrinsic dimension of high-dimensional data.
method Uses Wasserstein distances for estimation.
result Provides sample complexity bounds for GANs.
This study analyzes LTS in sparse models with finite sample error bounds.
problem Robust regression in high-dimensional sparse models with limited data.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of LTS error bounds.
result Established finite sample error bounds for LTS in sparse models.
The paper provides guarantees for high-dimensional DML estimators in observational studies.
problem Estimating treatment effects in observational settings with many covariates.
method Debiased machine learning (DML) with finite-sample guarantees.
result Bounding the deviation of finite-sample distribution from asymptotic Gaussian approximation.
The paper analyzes the efficiency of gradient estimation methods in noisy function evaluations.
problem Estimating gradients of smooth functions using noisy function evaluations.
method Information-theoretic lower bounds and finite difference method analysis.
result The finite difference method is not minimax optimal, suggesting room for improvement in gradient estimation.
Enhanced DFO using adaptive batch-based FD estimates.
problem Derivative-free optimization with imprecise gradient estimates.
method Adaptive batch-based finite difference estimation and dynamic sampling strategy.
result Algorithm achieves convergence rate similar to KW and SPSA methods.
Estimator calculates surface curvature from point cloud samples.
problem Accurately estimating curvature from limited point cloud data.
method Algorithm using probability distribution and nearby points control.
result Controlled number of points ensures accurate curvature estimation.
Estimating entropy and mutual information consistently is important for many machine learning applications. The Kozachenko-Leonenko (KL) estimator (Kozachenko & Leonenko, 1987) is a widely used nonparametric estimator for the entropy of multivariate continuous random variables, as well as the basis of the mutual inform…
This work studies the statistical performance of Sinkhorn iterations in estimating Schrödinger bridges.
problem Estimating Schrödinger bridges with limited samples.
method Intermediate Sinkhorn iterations applied to the time-dependent drifts of SDEs.
result Established a statistical bound on the squared total variation error of Sinkhorn bridge iterations.
Paper analyzes PSGLD for adaptive IRL with finite-sample bounds.
problem Estimating cost function of a forward learner using noisy gradients.
method Passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algorithm.
result Explicit bounds on 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD sample measure and stationary measure.
The paper introduces a frequency-domain estimator for low-order systems from noisy data.
problem Estimating frequency responses of low-order systems from noisy measurements.
method Uses a quadratic data-fitting term regularized by the nuclear norm of a Loewner matrix, subject to a convex stability constraint.
result Proves a finite-sample error bound and extends it to all frequencies through rational interpolation.
We consider the problem of adaptive stratified sampling for Monte Carlo integration of a differentiable function given a finite number of evaluations to the function. We construct a sampling scheme that samples more often in regions where the function oscillates more, while allocating the samples such that they are wel…
In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the predictive complexity. In the large-sample-size limit of a regular model, the predicti…
This study approximates distances between Gaussian processes and covariance operators using RKHS.
problem Approximating distances between Gaussian processes and covariance operators from finite samples.
method Using reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) covariance and cross-covariance operators, the study shows how to consistently and efficiently estimate Sinkhorn divergence from finite samples.
result Convergence rates are dimension-independent and of the same order as Hilbert-Schmidt distance.
New method reduces sample complexity for robust reinforcement learning.
problem Finite sample analysis in robust reinforcement learning.
method Stochastic approximation framework with controlled bias, using MLMC techniques and geometric truncation.
result Order-optimal sample complexity of ildeO(ε−2) for robust policy evaluation. Off-policy policy estimators that use importance sampling (IS) can suffer from high variance in long-horizon domains, and there has been particular excitement over new IS methods that leverage the structure of Markov decision processes. We analyze the variance of the most popular approaches through the viewpoint of con…
Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
problem Time-varying linear regression with hidden dynamics.
method Combines two OLS estimates for stable linear dynamics.
result Finite sample guarantee on estimation error.
Paper improves ML estimation from incomplete data with robust M-estimator.
problem Estimating parameters from incomplete data with improved accuracy.
method Developed a robust M-estimator and a sandwich estimator for standard errors.
result Improved estimation accuracy with smaller standard errors than ML estimates.
A new method optimizes spatial sampling for level set estimation in one dimension.
problem Efficiently localizing regions above/below a threshold function.
method Finite-horizon search procedure balancing estimation error and travel distance.
result Method significantly improves estimation accuracy at lower travel costs.
Unified view on learning unnormalized distributions using NCE.
problem Learning unnormalized distributions across different communities.
method Noise-Contrastive Estimation (NCE) for a unified perspective.
result Established finite-sample convergence rates for exponential families.
We study the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator (Zou (2006)) in finite samples as well as in the large-sample limit. The large-sample distributions are derived both for the case where the adaptive LASSO estimator is tuned to perform conservative model selection as well as for the case where the tuning results…
This paper finds a unique partition of a sample space for estimating continuous distributions.
problem Estimating continuous probability distributions from finite samples.
method Equal-probability partition of the sample space using order statistics.
result The partition yields an entropy of log2(N+1) bits, providing a discrete entropy estimate.
The MDL two-part coding index of resolvability provides a finite-sample upper bound on the statistical risk of penalized likelihood estimators over countable models. However, the bound does not apply to unpenalized maximum likelihood estimation or procedures with exceedingly small penalties. In this paper,…
The paper improves methods for estimating set size using samples.
problem Estimating the size of a set from a uniform sample.
method Refines estimators using the birthday problem and maximum of sample.
result Develops a general theory for non-asymptotic error bounds.
Kernel smoothing on unknown manifolds with bounds and asymptotic normality.
problem Data on unknown manifolds without boundaries.
method Finite sample bounds and asymptotic normality for kernel smoothing and its derivatives.
result Established finite sample bounds and asymptotic normality for kernel smoothing.
Kurtosis is seen as a measure of the discrepancy between the observed data and a Gaussian distribution and is defined when the 4th moment is finite. In this work an empirical study is conducted to investigate the behaviour of the sample estimate of kurtosis with respect to sample size and the tail index when applied to…
We formalize AURC and develop estimators for SC systems.
problem Evaluation of SC systems' performance.
method Formal statistical formulation, Monte Carlo methods, plug-in estimators.
result Plug-in estimators are consistent, with low bias and bounded MSE.
Study proposes efficient estimators for matrix-valued linear regression under sparsity assumptions.
problem Estimation of parameters in matrix-valued linear regression models.
method Explicit optimization-free estimators for matrix-valued linear regression models with sparsity assumptions.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rates for the proposed estimators.
The paper provides bounds on estimation error in a distributed online learning setting.
problem Estimating an unknown parameter in a distributed and online manner with finite sample guarantees.
method Proposes a distributed online estimation algorithm that improves accuracy through communication, providing non-asymptotic bounds on estimation error.
result Demonstrates a trade-off between estimation error and communication costs, and determines a stopping time for communication based on desired accuracy.
In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without external inputs. The objective is to recover the system parameters as well as the Kalm…
The study sets lower bounds on MMSE for inferring sensitive features from noisy data.
problem Estimating sensitive features from noisy observations of correlated features.
method Adversarial evaluation framework based on MMSE estimation with theoretical lower bounds.
result Derives closed-form bounds for linear models, showing optimality in noise variance.
In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR(n) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for χ2 distributed variables, we provide a concentration bound for the sample covariance matrix of the process output. With this, …