We analyze the financial crash in 2008 for different financial markets from the point of view of log-periodic function model. In particular, we consider Dow Jones index, DAX index and Hang Seng index. We shortly discuss the possible relation of the theory of critical phenomena in physics to financial markets.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,694 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Financial Indexes”
"It Looks All the Same to Me": Cross-index Training for Long-term Financial Series Predictionq-fin.ST
Study examines cross-training neural networks for financial index prediction.
problem Predicting financial indexes from different markets using machine learning.
method Investigated various neural network architectures and trained them on one market index to predict another.
result Cross-training models on one market index improved prediction accuracy for another market index.
Global balance index measures systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Defined global balance index based on a diffusive process and linear system.
result Global balance index correlates with systemic risk measures.
Paper introduces a new index to measure financial and workplace resilience of firms.
problem Corporate resilience and its types in turbulent markets.
method Quantitative analysis of earnings expectations and implied discount rates.
result Evidence of workplace resilience amplification by financial status in the COVID-19 era.
The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
A persistent-homology-based turbulence index & some applications of TDA on financial marketsq-fin.MF
New turbulence index using TDA detects financial market transitions.
problem Detecting critical transitions in financial markets.
method Persistent homology for identifying topological features.
result Persistent homology-based index captures financial data transitions.
Quantum SVM improves financial data classification.
problem Classifying financial data using quantum machine learning.
method Application of quantum kernels to financial data, specifically DSEx Broad Index.
result Empirical quantum advantage demonstrated for financial data classification.
This paper reviews and analyzes various modeling approaches for financial index tracking.
problem Efficient replication of market index performance in financial markets.
method Categorization into three frameworks: optimization, statistical, and machine learning; empirical study on S&P 500 dataset.
result Optimization-based models deliver the most precise index tracking, statistical-based models achieve the strongest return-risk balance, and data-driven models provide competitive performance.
Fluctuations in time intervals of financial data from the view point of the Gini indexphysics.data-an
We propose an approach to explain fluctuations in time intervals of financial markets data from the view point of the Gini index. We show the explicit form of the Gini index for a Weibull distribution which is a good candidate to describe the first passage time of foreign exchange rate. The analytical expression of the…
Improved FDR control for sparse financial index tracking.
problem Maintaining FDR control in high-dimensional financial data with strong variable dependencies.
method Expanding T-Rex framework to handle overlapping groups of correlated variables with nearest neighbors penalization.
result Accurately tracks the S&P 500 index using only a small number of stocks.
Accurate solution of the Index Tracking problem with a hybrid simulated annealing algorithmcond-mat.stat-mech
Hybrid SA algorithm optimizes index tracking for large indices.
problem Optimizing index tracking for large indices with financial constraints.
method Hybrid simulated annealing algorithm.
result Algorithm finds optimal solutions for past and future returns.
Uncertainty in the financial market and application to forecastabnormal financial fluctuationsq-fin.RM
New model predicts financial market abnormalities using stock index uncertainties.
problem Forecasting abnormal financial fluctuations in the market.
method Quantitative analysis of mean and volatility uncertainties, constructing early warning indicators.
result Established a new abnormal fluctuations warning model.
Bank transactions help predict macroeconomic indexes faster and more accurately.
problem Lag in macroeconomic index availability and autoregressive models' limitations in complex scenarios.
method Use financial transactions data to estimate macroeconomic indexes using neural networks and smart sampling.
result Neural network approach outperforms baseline methods on hand-crafted features based on transactions.
Portfolio Optimization for Index Tracking with Constraints on Downside Risk and Carbon Footprintq-fin.RM
This paper optimizes decarbonized indices for financial tracking, balancing risk and environmental impact.
problem Balancing financial performance with environmental responsibilities in the context of climate risks.
method Develops decarbonized indices using mean-VaR and mean-ES optimization methods.
result Optimized indices reduce financial risk and carbon footprint, providing a balanced investment option.
Hybrid quantum-classical method optimizes financial index tracking.
problem Optimizing asset weights for financial index replication.
method Hybrid quantum-classical optimization with pruning algorithm.
result Improved performance through quantum and classical optimization.
Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.
problem Impact of COVID-19 deaths on financial markets.
method Analysis of VIX index based on daily case reports and death ratios.
result Death ratio positively influences financial volatility.
Stylized Statistical Facts of Indonesian Financial Data: Empirical Study of Several Stock Indexes in Indonesiacond-mat.other
This paper is trying to unveil general statistical characteristic of financial; time series data that is subjected to several financial time series data present in Indonesia, e.g. individual index such as stock price of PT. TELKOM, stock price of PT HM SAMPOERNA, and compiled stock price index (Jakarta Stock Exchange I…
The paper introduces a US crime index to assess financial losses from property and cyber crimes.
problem Lack of indices evaluating crime's financial impact on investments.
method Developed an index-based insurance portfolio using FBI financial losses data.
result Real estate, ransomware, and government impersonation are major risk contributors.
The paper predicts financial markets using news text and semantic network analysis.
problem Predicting financial markets with news data.
method Semantic network analysis of news text to assess economic keywords' importance.
result The index captures financial market phases and predicts returns and volatilities.
Indexed Markov Chains for financial data: testing for the number of states of the index processq-fin.ST
A new branch based on Markov processes is developing in the recent literature of financial time series modeling. In this paper, an Indexed Markov Chain has been used to model high frequency price returns of quoted firms. The peculiarity of this type of model is that through the introduction of an Index process it is po…
Unified framework predicts S&P500 index direction using transfer learning and causal graph.
problem Predicting the movement of financial indices like S&P500.
method Transfer learning, causal graph, multidisciplinary knowledge, VAE network.
result 74.3% accuracy, 67% F1-score, 0.42 Matthew correlation on 12 years test period.
Algorithmic Complexity in Real Financial Marketscond-mat.stat-mech
A new approach to the understanding of complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a magnitude rooted in Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of financial markets indexes. The st…
Unlike other industries in which intellectual property is patentable, the financial industry relies on trade secrecy to protect its business processes and methods, which can obscure critical financial risk exposures from regulators and the public. We develop methods for sharing and aggregating such risk exposures that …
An analysis of the stylized facts in financial time series is carried out. We find that, instead of the heavy tails in asset return distributions, the slow decay behaviour in autocorrelation functions of absolute returns is actually directly related to the degree of clustering of large fluctuations within the financial…
Robust Transformer-Based One-Step Stock Index Forecasting via Shifted Data Augmentation
problem Robust stock index forecasting
method Modified Transformer architecture with Shifted Data Augmentation
result Best performance on benchmark datasets
Scaling in the Bombay Stock Exchange Indexcond-mat.stat-mech
In this paper we study BSE Index financial time series for fractal and multifractal behaviour. We show that Bombay stock Exchange (BSE)Index time series is mono-fractal and can be represented by a fractional Brownian motion.
PLS-Lasso integrates dimension reduction into regression for financial index tracking.
problem Dimension reduction and regression are traditionally treated separately in multivariate data analysis.
method PLS-Lasso integrates dimension reduction directly into the regression process, presenting two formulations: PLS-Lasso-v1 and PLS-Lasso-v2.
result PLS-Lasso-v1 and PLS-Lasso-v2 outperform Lasso in financial index tracking.
The real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy. Due to changes in policy and market conditions, the real estate companies are facing greater pressures to survive in a competitive environment. They must improve their financial competitiveness. Based on the conceptual framework of financial competitiven…
Study examines how pandemic anxiety affects financial market trust.
problem Anxiety during pandemic and trust in financial markets.
method Used Google search volume and stock market data to create mood indicators.
result Different clusters of countries and markets in terms of pessimism and optimism emerged.
Hausdorff clustering of financial time seriesphysics.soc-ph
A clustering procedure, based on the Hausdorff distance, is introduced and tested on the financial time series of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index.
Empirical evidence supports new financial market definitions.
problem Investor risk attitudes in financial markets.
method Developed a new method to analyze risk attitudes.
result Risk-averse behavior in equity investors, risk-loving behavior in risk-free asset investors.
New RL method improves financial index tracking accuracy.
problem Optimizing financial index tracking with dynamic market information.
method Discrete-time dynamic model, Banach fixed point iteration, deep reinforcement learning.
result Proposed RL method outperforms benchmarks in tracking accuracy.
In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of study is from 2008 to 2018 that is split in two periods during international en…
Stress index strategy enhanced with financial news sentiment analysis for the equity marketsq-fin.ST
Enhanced stock market strategy using stress index and financial news sentiment analysis.
problem Improving risk assessment and prediction in equity markets.
method Combines financial stress indicator with sentiment analysis of financial news.
result Improved performance with higher Sharpe ratio and reduced drawdowns.
The study explains stock return distributions using reaction functions.
problem Stock return distributions often deviate from normal distributions.
method Assumes normal event/information effects, financial over/underreaction, proposes reaction function model.
result Financial markets often underreact to minor events, overreact to significant ones, and react stronger to positive events.
In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain model. We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the model is able …
Paper proposes GAS-ALD model for financial risk prediction.
problem Skewed distribution of financial return data.
method Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD).
result GAS-ALD model predicts VaR and ES more accurately than traditional models.
In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain model. We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the model is able to repr…
Modelling of dependence in high-dimensional financial time series by cluster-derived canonical vinesq-fin.ST
We extend existing models in the financial literature by introducing a cluster-derived canonical vine (CDCV) copula model for capturing high dimensional dependence between financial time series. This model utilises a simplified market-sector vine copula framework similar to those introduced by Heinen and Valdesogo (200…
Model for hedging price and quantity risks in electricity markets.
problem Hedging risks for energy retailers in a regulated electricity market.
method Closed-form solution for optimal portfolio using financial instruments based on price and weather indexes.
result Closed-form solution for mean-var model in discrete setting without distributional assumptions.
Dynamics of a financial market index after a crashcond-mat.stat-mech
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. …
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
problem Quantifying the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
method Selected economic indexes, created datasets, and used machine learning (Linear Regression) for forecasting.
result The model accurately predicted the effects of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
The Hype Index measures media attention to equities using NLP.
problem Quantifying media attention to equities for volatility analysis.
method Constructs News Count-Based and Capitalization Adjusted Hype Indices using NLP.
result The Hype Index family provides valuable tools for stock volatility analysis.
Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.
problem Understanding public concern's impact on financial markets during pandemics.
method Used Google Trends data from YouTube, News, and Search to measure public concern and correlate it with stock index returns.
result Public concern in Italy drives concerns in other countries and explains stock index returns of multiple nations.
Paper extends quantile factor analysis with probabilistic methods for better economic policy and financial condition prediction.
problem Improving accuracy in economic and financial condition prediction.
method Probabilistic quantile factor analysis with regularization and variational approximations.
result The probabilistic estimator outperforms a recent loss-based estimator in many cases.
Italy and the Eurozone are heading in the year 2012 into a financial depression of unprecedented magnitude, with a forthcoming multitude of often contradictory public economic and financial stability emergency interventions whose ultimate endogenous and exogenous effects on public and private health spending and on the…
The two phase behavior in financial markets actually means the bifurcation phenomenon, which represents the change of the conditional probability from an unimodal to a bimodal distribution. In this paper, the bifurcation phenomenon in Hang-Seng index is carefully investigated. It is observed that the bifurcation phenom…
The importance of considering the volumes to analyze stock prices movements can be considered as a well-accepted practice in the financial area. However, when we look at the scientific production in this field, we still cannot find a unified model that includes volume and price variations for stock assessment purposes.…