Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced p-EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay. result Stochastic convergence guarantees for p-EMA under mild assumptions. We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence measurement noise) via techniques borrowed from random matrix theory. We calculate…
The study analyzes when Bayesian averaging over decision trees is reliable.
problem When do Bayesian model averaging weights over decision trees provide reliable information?
method Closed-form solution for Bayesian decision trees with Catalan-exponential priors.
result Established a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.
Extends online learning to metric spaces using exponential weights.
problem Online learning in metric spaces.
method Exponentially weighted average forecaster, barycenters, Jensen's inequality, measure contraction property.
result Results in a statistical learning framework.
A new method for exponentially weighted moving models using approximations.
problem Efficiently updating moving averages for time series data.
method Approximates EWMM using a fixed window and quadratic term, solving non-growing problems.
result Approximation produces estimates similar to exact EWMM.
New moving average adapts weight dynamically based on polynomial and wavefunction.
problem Lagging traditional moving averages in adjusting to changes in data.
method Develops a moving average with weight as a polynomial of a wavefunction from an eigenproblem.
result Immediate 'switch' without lag, adapting to changes in data.
We propose an explicit recursive method to approximate a power-law with a finite sum of weighted exponentials. Applications to moving averages with long memory are discussed in relationship with stochastic volatility models.
This paper addresses the problem of prediction with expert advice for outcomes in a geodesic space with non-positive curvature in the sense of Alexandrov. Via geometric considerations, and in particular the notion of barycenters, we extend to this setting the definition and analysis of the classical exponentially weigh…
A new method for averaging model predictions using minimum divergence.
problem Improving model averaging methods, especially in small samples.
method Minimum divergence framework for model weight calculation.
result Empirically outperforms standard model averaging methods.
New algorithms bound graph structure sampling and learning high-dimensional graphical models.
problem Learning high-dimensional graphical models and efficient graph structure sampling.
method Online learning framework with exponentially weighted average (EWA) or randomized weighted majority (RWM) forecasters using log loss function.
result New sample complexity bounds and efficient algorithms for learning Bayes nets, including trees and chordal skeletons.
A new method normalizes flow mixtures for better inference across different data types.
problem Inference failure across diverse posterior geometries in normalizing flows.
method Introduces a two-stage framework with a stable global weighting mechanism based on sEMA.
result Achieves consistent NLL improvements and stable weight trajectories over baselines.
New covariance estimator for financial portfolios.
problem Estimating large financial covariances in non-stationary environments.
method Exponentially weighted averages and cross-validation for nonlinearly shrinking sample eigenvalues.
result Our estimator performs well in large dimensions compared to existing estimators.
A new accelerated method with simpler momentum update rules.
problem Optimizing parameters in machine learning models.
method Proposes a novel accelerated stochastic gradient method with simpler momentum update rules.
result The method outperforms Sgdm and Adam in practical problems.
Classifying streaming data requires the development of methods which are computationally efficient and able to cope with changes in the underlying distribution of the stream, a phenomenon known in the literature as concept drift. We propose a new method for detecting concept drift which uses an Exponentially Weighted M…
Unified analysis of finite weight averaging methods in deep learning.
problem Theoretical explanation of finite weight averaging methods in deep learning.
method Generalized SGD and LAWA, establishing convergence and generalization bounds.
result FWA achieves faster convergence and better generalization compared to SGD.
PACE optimizes training for averaged language models, improving performance.
problem How to optimize training for averaged language model iterates.
method Formulated as an optimal-control problem, solved for minimizing error of the average with a penalty on intervention size.
result PACE improves the limiting squared error of the iterate-average estimator by an arbitrarily large factor on some instances.
Improved algorithm reduces excess risk in selective learning.
problem Selective learning with windowed model selection.
method Hybrid Exponential Weights Algorithm and bounded-recall ERM.
result Achieves expected excess risk of O((log log |L| + log log n) / log n).
BEMA reduces bias in EMA, leading to faster convergence and better performance.
problem Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning destabilizes training.
method Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA) augmentation of EMA.
result BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance.
Improved diffusion models for image synthesis with better training dynamics.
problem Uneven and ineffective training in diffusion models.
method Redesigned network layers to preserve activation, weight, and update magnitudes.
result Significantly better networks at equal computational complexity, improving FID to 1.81.
SNAP improves robust computation by emphasizing trustworthy items and downweighting outliers.
problem Improving robustness in computation, especially in high-dimensional settings.
method SNAP assigns weights based on mutual agreement, suppressing outlier contributions.
result SNAP ensures outliers contribute negligibly to computations, even in high-dimensional settings.
Improving optimization for iterate-averaged language models
problem How to optimize the averaged model returned by Language Model pipelines
method Formulating optimizer design as an optimal-control problem
result Proven convergence rate and strict improvement in squared error
Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an algorithm to generate complex dynamics for parameters and (both visible and hidde…
In this note we discuss the mathematical tools to define trend indicators which are used to describe market trends. We explain the relation between averages and moving averages on the one hand and the so called exponential moving average (EMA) on the other hand. We present a lot of examples and give the definition of t…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density in which skewness and ku…
This paper develops a new theory for ensemble learning beyond variance reduction.
problem Ensemble learning's effectiveness for stable estimators is not fully explained by variance reduction.
method Develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning, formalizing ensembles as linear operators and introducing geometric and spectral constraints.
result Structured weights can outperform uniform averaging by reshaping approximation geometry and redistributing spectral complexity.
We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. This novel approach pairs the Exponential Weights forecaster with a very large ensemble of experts. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mo…
Improved score-based models generate high-quality images up to 256x256.
problem Training score-based models for high-resolution images is unstable and limited.
method Theoretical analysis, exponential moving average of model weights.
result Score-based models can generate high-fidelity images up to 256x256.
In this article, we aim at improving the prediction of expert aggregation by using the underlying properties of the models that provide expert predictions. We restrict ourselves to the case where expert predictions come from Kalman recursions, fitting state-space models. By using exponential weights, we construct diffe…
The recently proposed Temporal Ensembling has achieved state-of-the-art results in several semi-supervised learning benchmarks. It maintains an exponential moving average of label predictions on each training example, and penalizes predictions that are inconsistent with this target. However, because the targets change …
Multi-sample, importance-weighted variational autoencoders (IWAE) give tighter bounds and more accurate uncertainty estimates than variational autoencoders (VAE) trained with a standard single-sample objective. However, IWAEs scale poorly: as the latent dimensionality grows, they require exponentially many samples to r…
A new method for robust training under label noise using weighted gradient descent.
problem Overfitting to noisy examples in machine learning.
method Exponentiated gradient reweighting for flexible handling of noisy data.
result Improved generalization in noisy classification and PCA problems.
Positive weights improve kernel quadrature's accuracy.
problem Improving kernel quadrature weights to be positive and stable.
method Using convex geometry to approximate the kernel mean embedding with positive weights.
result Positive weights lead to improved kernel quadrature bounds with Monte-Carlo-beating rates.
The paper rethinks the use of exponential averaging in machine learning optimization.
problem The inefficiency of using exponential averaging in optimization algorithms.
method The paper connects EA-CM algorithms to Wake of Quadratic regularized models and proposes new algorithms, KLD-WRM.
result The new algorithms outperform existing methods like K-FAC on MNIST.
Study tackles non-stationary bandit convex optimization with new algorithms.
problem Minimizing regret in non-stationary environments with various measures of non-stationarity.
method Proposed Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE) for strongly convex losses and clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO) for general convex losses.
result Proved minimax-optimality of TEWA-SE for strongly convex losses and introduced cExO for general convex losses.
This work proposes a model averaging method for SVM that avoids redundant covariates and achieves asymptotic optimality.
problem Redundant covariates impair SVM performance in high-dimensional settings.
method Frequentist model averaging procedure for SVM using cross-validation to select optimal weights.
result The proposed method achieves asymptotic optimality in SVM model averaging.
Paper explores weighted averaging schemes for SGD, achieving asymptotic normality and optimality.
problem Improving convergence of SGD in various settings.
method Develops a general weighted averaging scheme for SGD and establishes asymptotic normality.
result Establishes asymptotic normality and optimality of weighted averaged SGD solutions.
Dynamic trading strategies, in the spirit of trend-following or mean-reversion, represent an only partly understood but lucrative and pervasive area of modern finance. Assuming Gaussian returns and Gaussian dynamic weights or signals, (e.g., linear filters of past returns, such as simple moving averages, exponential we…
Paper analyzes how EMA improves SGD in linear regression.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of EMA in training deep learning models.
method Established risk bound for online SGD with EMA in linear regression.
result SGD with EMA has smaller variance error and exponentially decaying bias error.
Exponential smoothers are a simple and memory efficient way to compute running averages of time series. Here we define and describe practical properties of exponential smoothers for signals observed at constant and variable intervals.
This paper analyzes SGD with increasingly weighted averaging for optimization and generalization.
problem Improving optimization and generalization for non-strongly convex objectives.
method Comprehensive analysis of increasingly weighted averaging schemes for convex, strongly convex, and non-convex objectives.
result The weight α affects both optimization and generalization errors, revealing a trade-off. WASH trains ensembles with shuffled weights to improve accuracy and reduce communication.
problem Training ensembles for weight averaging leads to models converging to different loss basins.
method WASH randomly shuffles a small percentage of weights during training to keep models within the same basin.
result WASH achieves state-of-the-art image classification accuracy with lower communication costs.
The recently introduced dropout training criterion for neural networks has been the subject of much attention due to its simplicity and remarkable effectiveness as a regularizer, as well as its interpretation as a training procedure for an exponentially large ensemble of networks that share parameters. In this work we …
We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponential…
TT-DAC-PS: A deterministic actor-critic approach for optimal trade execution
problem Optimal execution of large stock sell programs
method Twin-Target Deterministic Actor-Critic with Policy Smoothing
result Reduces mean implementation shortfall percentage
Paper introduces stability in model averaging and proposes a L2-penalty method.
problem Theoretical properties of model averaging from stability perspective.
method Introduces stability, defines asymptotic empirical risk minimizer, and proposes L2-penalty model averaging method.
result Proposed L2-penalty method ensures stability and consistency under reasonable conditions.
Introduces Exponentially Weighted Signature for better path representation.
problem Uniform treatment of historical information in signatures.
method Generalizes EFM signature to bounded linear operators, enabling contextualised temporal weighting.
result EWS is the unique solution to a linear controlled differential equation and generalizes state-space models.
Optimal weight windows are found by projecting the origin onto a convex polytope.
problem Finding the best weight windows for a weighted moving average smoother.
method Formulated as a quadratic program and projection onto a convex polytope.
result Optimal weight windows are symmetrical and decrease in weight away from the center.
This study optimizes model averaging for personalized collaborative learning.
problem Differences in data or objectives between nodes in federated learning.
method Weighted averaging between local and global models for scalar mean estimation.
result There is always some positive model averaging that reduces expected squared error.