Improved time series forecasting with expert loss integration.
problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
method Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts framework with expert-specific loss integration and online learning.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Bayesian framework integrates spectral deconvolution with expert reasoning for robust peak estimation.
problem Challenges in extracting meaningful peaks from noisy or complex spectra.
method Bayesian spectral deconvolution coupled with a physical-property regression layer.
result Recovery of weak peaks in poly(lactic acid) IR spectra related to degradation rates.
LHM integrates expert ODEs with neural ODEs for disease progression prediction.
problem Predicting disease progression under medications using limited data.
method Integrating expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs.
result LHM consistently outperforms previous methods, especially in small sample regimes.
EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.
problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.
method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.
result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.
AGFN improves causal discovery by integrating expert feedback and handling latent confounding.
problem Inaccurate causal discovery due to unreliable expert knowledge and latent confounding.
method Ancestral GFlowNet (AGFN) is a reinforcement learning algorithm that iteratively refines a policy based on noisy expert feedback to infer ancestral graphs.
result AGFN converges to the true ancestral graph given accurate expert responses and outperforms baselines in structural Hamming distance and Bayesian Information Criterion.
A new method uses a product of experts with Dirichlet variables to approximate complex distributions.
problem Approximating complex distributions with tractable models.
method A product of experts with auxiliary Dirichlet variables, using a Feynman identity to sample and optimize.
result The method efficiently approximates complex distributions using a product of experts and Dirichlet variables.
NAMEx merges experts using Nash bargaining for improved performance.
problem Sparse Mixture of Experts merging strategies lack a principled weighting mechanism.
method Reinterpreting expert merging through game theory, introducing Nash Merging and complex momentum.
result NAMEx consistently outperforms competing methods across various tasks and system sizes.
A new CoVaR framework integrates expert views using entropy pooling.
problem Risk assessment and spillover effects from diverse expert views.
method Entropy pooling method to integrate expert views and compute general CoVaR.
result General CoVaR shows linear relationships with expectations and differences in expectations, and nonlinear dependencies with variance, quantiles, and correlation.
High-dimensional prediction is a challenging problem setting for traditional statistical models. Although regularization improves model performance in high dimensions, it does not sufficiently leverage knowledge on feature importances held by domain experts. As an alternative to standard regularization techniques, we p…
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
problem Integrating clustering into survival analysis for precision medicine.
method SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering and predicts survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts.
result SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforming clustering baselines and competing with non-clustering models in predictive accuracy.
TradeExpert uses a mix of LLMs to predict stock movements.
problem Synthesizing insights from diverse financial data sources.
method A mix of four specialized LLMs analyzing different data types, with a General Expert LLM synthesizing the insights.
result TradeExpert outperforms existing benchmarks in stock movement prediction.
Paper proposes a novel method to accurately determine the number of experts in Gaussian-gated Gaussian MoE models.
problem Challenges in model selection for MoE models, especially with covariates.
method Introduces a novel extension using dendrograms of mixing measures to estimate the true number of mixture components.
result Achieves optimal convergence rates for parameter estimation and accurately approximates the regression function.
The paper integrates AI and expert knowledge to optimize radiotherapy decisions.
problem Optimizing radiation dose planning considering patient-specific information.
method Integrating Gaussian process models with deep neural networks to quantify uncertainty.
result Improves AI model performance and guides clinical decision making.
Machine Learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption by the level of trust that models afford users. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be per…
L2D-CD learns to defer expert recommendations in causal discovery.
problem Combining expert knowledge with data-driven results in causal discovery when expert recommendations may contradict data.
method Adapting learning-to-defer algorithms for pairwise causal discovery, L2D-CD learns a deferral function to select between expert recommendations and data-driven methods.
result L2D-CD outperforms both causal discovery methods and the expert used in isolation, identifying domains where the expert's performance is strong or weak.
New L2D framework allows deferring specific parts of a sequence prediction to experts.
problem Current L2D methods defer entire predictions, which is not ideal for long sequences.
method Proposes token-level and one-time rejectors to defer specific outputs of a model prediction to experts.
result Granular deferrals achieve better cost-accuracy tradeoffs than whole deferrals.
Integrates momentum into SMoE for improved stability and robustness.
problem Stable training and robustness to data contamination in SMoE models.
method Established a connection between SMoE dynamics and gradient descent, then integrated momentum.
result MomentumSMoE is more stable and robust than SMoE.
It is well-known to the experts that multi-dimensional state integrals of products of Faddeev's quantum dilogarithm which arise in Quantum Topology can be written as finite sums of products of basic hypergeometric series in q=e^{2πiτ} and \tilde{q}=e^{-2πi/τ}. We illustrate this fact by giving a detailed proof for a fa…
GH-PID uses guided harmonic paths for efficient SOT with interpretable diagnostics.
problem Efficiently solving Stochastic Optimal Transport with hard terminal distributions and soft costs.
method Guided Harmonic Path-Integral Diffusion (GH-PID) framework with low-dimensional guidance.
result GH-PID generates geometry-aware, cost-reducing trajectories that match terminal distributions.
Expert-guided model improves seismic compliance monitoring.
problem Classifying seismic data with missingness and expert knowledge.
method Expert-guided class-conditional model with interpretable goodness-of-fit features.
result Interpretable classifier outperforms standard machine learning, especially with small training data.
ChemCrow enhances LLMs for chemistry tasks, automating complex chemical processes.
problem Limited access to computational chemistry tools for large-language models.
method Integrating 18 expert-designed chemistry tools into an LLM (ChemCrow).
result ChemCrow autonomously plans and executes chemical syntheses and discoveries.
Algorithm improves learning by integrating diverse agents' behaviors.
problem Lack of social learning in reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Free energy approach for social bandit learning.
result Algorithm converges to optimal policy and enhances learning.
The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.
problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.
We study how to effectively leverage expert feedback to learn sequential decision-making policies. We focus on problems with sparse rewards and long time horizons, which typically pose significant challenges in reinforcement learning. We propose an algorithmic framework, called hierarchical guidance, that leverages the…
In this paper we extend the setting of the online prediction with expert advice to function-valued forecasts. At each step of the online game several experts predict a function, and the learner has to efficiently aggregate these functional forecasts into a single forecast. We adapt basic mixable (and exponentially conc…
The promise of ANNs to automatically discover and extract useful features/patterns from data without dwelling on domain expertise although seems highly promising but comes at the cost of high reliance on large amount of accurately labeled data, which is often hard to acquire and formulate especially in time-series doma…
Bayesian method estimates dynamics from near-optimal trajectories.
problem Estimating dynamics from near-optimal expert trajectories in reinforcement learning.
method Constraint-based Bayesian approach integrating expert near-optimality.
result Significant improvements in decision-making and transfer success.
Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
problem Clarifying human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks.
method Integrates human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
result Improves performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor.
We consider a learning system based on the conventional multiplicative weight (MW) rule that combines experts' advice to predict a sequence of true outcomes. It is assumed that one of the experts is malicious and aims to impose the maximum loss on the system. The loss of the system is naturally defined to be the aggreg…
fMRI semantic category understanding using linguistic encoding models attempts to learn a forward mapping that relates stimuli to the corresponding brain activation. State-of-the-art encoding models use a single global model (linear or non-linear) to predict brain activation given the stimulus. However, the critical as…
MobILE learns from expert demonstrations without access to actions, achieving strong performance guarantees.
problem Imitation Learning from Observations alone (ILFO) where actions are not observed.
method MobILE integrates optimism in the face of uncertainty into distribution matching IL framework, trading off exploration and imitation.
result MobILE provides strong performance guarantees for certain MDP dynamics and demonstrates efficacy on OpenAI Gym tasks.
AdaNet is a lightweight TensorFlow-based (Abadi et al., 2015) framework for automatically learning high-quality ensembles with minimal expert intervention. Our framework is inspired by the AdaNet algorithm (Cortes et al., 2017) which learns the structure of a neural network as an ensemble of subnetworks. We designed it…
Unified framework for SGMoE resolves estimation and selection issues.
problem Non-identifiability, coupled differential relations, and tight coupling in softmax-Gated models.
method Unified statistical framework with Voronoi-type loss functions and dendrograms of mixing measures.
result Consistent selection of the number of experts without model sweeps, optimal parameter rates under overfitting.
RDLI integrates domain logic and context grounding to detect crypto anomalies under scarce labels.
problem Extreme label scarcity and evasion strategies in crypto networks.
method Relational Domain Logic Integration (RDLI) with Retrieval Grounded Context (RGC).
result RDLI outperforms GNN baselines by 28.9% in F1 score under 0.01% label scarcity.
Improves imitation learning in RL by learning reward function efficiently.
problem Lack of effective reward function approximation in AIRL for imitation tasks.
method Proposes Off-Policy AIRL that combines adversarial learning with efficient reward function approximation.
result Shows superior imitation performance and efficiency compared to state-of-the-art AIL algorithms.
Overview of integrable systems with symmetries, focusing on toric and semitoric systems.
problem Classifying and understanding integrable systems with symmetries.
method Using decorated polygons and controlled bifurcations in one-parameter families of systems.
result Construction of explicit semitoric systems with prescribed invariants.
Imitation learning is the problem of recovering an expert policy without access to a reward signal. Behavior cloning and GAIL are two widely used methods for performing imitation learning. Behavior cloning converges in a few iterations but doesn't achieve peak performance due to its inherent iid assumption about the st…
MetaTrader combines diverse expert strategies to optimize portfolio performance.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance in changing financial markets.
method Two-stage RL approach: imitation learning followed by a meta-policy.
result MetaTrader significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in balancing profits and risks.
We study Imitation Learning (IL) from Observations alone (ILFO) in large-scale MDPs. While most IL algorithms rely on an expert to directly provide actions to the learner, in this setting the expert only supplies sequences of observations. We design a new model-free algorithm for ILFO, Forward Adversarial Imitation Lea…
Deep reinforcement learning has achieved great successes in recent years, however, one main challenge is the sample inefficiency. In this paper, we focus on how to use action guidance by means of a non-expert demonstrator to improve sample efficiency in a domain with sparse, delayed, and possibly deceptive rewards: the…
Learning generative models that span multiple data modalities, such as vision and language, is often motivated by the desire to learn more useful, generalisable representations that faithfully capture common underlying factors between the modalities. In this work, we characterise successful learning of such models as t…
The policy objective of safeguarding financial stability has stimulated a wave of research on systemic risk analytics, yet it still faces challenges in measurability. This paper models systemic risk by tapping into expert knowledge of financial supervisors. We decompose systemic risk into a number of interconnected seg…
Multi-expert L2D underfits more severely, requiring new methods.
problem Underfitting in multi-expert L2D settings.
method PiCCE (Pick the Confident and Correct Expert), a surrogate-based method.
result PiCCE effectively reduces multi-expert L2D to a single-expert-like problem, resolving underfitting.
PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.
problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.
This paper integrates LLMs into SCD to improve causal inference accuracy.
problem Challenges in acquiring domain expert knowledge for causal models.
method Statistical causal prompting (SCP) for LLMs and prior knowledge augmentation for SCD.
result LLM-KBCI and SCD augmented with LLM-KBCI approach ground truths more closely.
Introduces a rule-based Bayesian regression for better uncertainty quantification and expert knowledge integration.
problem Handling regression problems with uncertainty quantification and expert intuition.
method Combines Bayesian inference and rule-based systems for better model performance.
result Improves model performance with better uncertainty quantification and point predictions.
TENP prunes experts and neurons in Mixture-of-Experts models for efficient deployment.
problem Efficient deployment of large language models constrained by static parameter footprint.
method Structured Trapezoidal ExpertNeuron Pruning (TENP) identifies and retains important experts and neurons.
result DeepSeek model achieves 10% better performance on code generation tasks with 40% expert sparsity.
A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.