A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SSLfmm package improves semi-supervised learning by incorporating informative missingness in finite mixture models.
Paper develops NPG for risk-averse RL with ECRMs, proving global convergence.
Bayesian graphical models are a useful tool for understanding dependence relationships among many variables, particularly in situations with external prior information. In high-dimensional settings, the space of possible graphs becomes enormous, rendering even state-of-the-art Bayesian stochastic search computationally…
Efficiently designs experiments without integrating posterior distributions.
We establish some subprincipal estimates for Berezin-Toeplitz operators on symplectic compact manifolds. From this, we construct a family of subprincipal symbol maps and we prove that these maps are the only ones satisfying some expected conditions.
A contaminated mixture model detects outliers in multivariate functional data.
In recent years, a large amount of model-agnostic methods to improve the transparency, trustability and interpretability of machine learning models have been developed. We introduce local feature importance as a local version of a recent model-agnostic global feature importance method. Based on local feature importance…
This paper explores optimising acquisition functions in Bayesian optimisation.
Two deep learning algorithms solve utility maximisation problems in finance.
New constraints rule out some optimal domains for helicity maximisation.
In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other unknown static parameters. We also propose a sequential Monte Carlo approximatio…
We study the existence and properties of metrics maximising the first Laplace eigenvalue among conformal metrics of unit volume on Riemannian surfaces. We describe a general approach to this problem and its higher eigenvalue versions via the direct method of calculus of variations. The principal results include the gen…
Paper develops duality theory for robust utility maximization in continuous time.
Double Machine Learning estimators are asymptotically inadmissible under structure-agnostic models.
For information retrieval and binary classification, we show that precision at the top (or precision at k) and recall at the top (or recall at k) are maximised by thresholding the posterior probability of the positive class. This finding is a consequence of a result on constrained minimisation of the cost-sensitive exp…
The study proves properties of optimizers for sets maximizing perimeter under fixed volume constraints.
The paper addresses optimal control in modern tontines with bequest preferences, showing a linear investment strategy.
Improved estimators for causal inference using cross-fitting and undersmoothing.
Paper uses machine learning in EM framework for better nowcasting.
Study optimal reinsurance pricing under model uncertainty for multiple insurers.
In this paper we assume a multivariate risk model has been developed for a portfolio and its capital derived as a homogeneous risk measure. The Euler (or gradient) principle, then, states that the capital to be allocated to each component of the portfolio has to be calculated as an expectation conditional to a rare eve…
The notion of utility maximising entropy (u-entropy) of a probability density, which was introduced and studied by Slomczynski and Zastawniak (Ann. Prob 32 (2004) 2261-2285, arXiv:math.PR/0410115 v1), is extended in two directions. First, the relative u-entropy of two probability measures in arbitrary probability space…
We consider expected utility maximisation problem for exponential Levy models and HARA utilities in presence of illiquid asset in portfolio. This illiquid asset is modelled by an option of European type on another risky asset which is correlated with the first one. Under some hypothesis on Levy processes, we give the e…
Study eigenvalues of magnetic Steklov problem on Riemannian annuli.
Study optimizes trading strategies in markets with transaction costs and uncertain models.
The mutual information is a core statistical quantity that has applications in all areas of machine learning, whether this is in training of density models over multiple data modalities, in maximising the efficiency of noisy transmission channels, or when learning behaviour policies for exploration by artificial agents…
This article is devoted to the maximisation of HARA utilities of L{é}vy switching process on finite time interval via dual method. We give the description of all f-divergence minimal martingale measures in initially enlarged filtration, the expression of their Radon-Nikodym densities involving Hellinger and Kulback-Lei…
Agent maximizes utility with pathwise constraint on portfolio value.
The present paper originated from a problem in Financial Mathematics concerned with calculating the value of a European call option based on multiple assets each following the binomial model. The model led to an interesting family of polytopes associated with the power-set and pa…
Scaling Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional search spaces is a active and open research problems particularly when no assumptions are made on function structure. The main reason is that at each iteration, BO requires to find global maximisation of acquisition function, which itself is a non-convex optimizati…
We introduce a new online learning framework where, at each trial, the learner is required to select a subset of actions from a given known action set. Each action is associated with an energy value, a reward and a cost. The sum of the energies of the actions selected cannot exceed a given energy budget. The goal is to…
Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in scientific experiments. A fundamental question is how to design the experiments so…
This paper argues that the fundamental principle of contemporary financial economics is balanced reciprocity, not the principle of utility maximisation that is important in economics more generally. The argument is developed by analysing the mathematical Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with reference to the emergen…
A mixture of common skew-t factor analyzers model is introduced for model-based clustering of high-dimensional data. By assuming common component factor loadings, this model allows clustering to be performed in the presence of a large number of mixture components or when the number of dimensions is too large to be well…
New issue found in value-based reinforcement learning for stochastic environments.
Algorithm bounds causal queries under selection bias.
In this article we discuss the problem of calculating optimal model-independent (robust) bounds for the price of Asian options with discrete and continuous averaging. We will give geometric characterisations of the maximising and the minimising pricing model for certain types of Asian options in discrete and continuous…
We introduce a methodology for efficiently computing a lower bound to empowerment, allowing it to be used as an unsupervised cost function for policy learning in real-time control. Empowerment, being the channel capacity between actions and states, maximises the influence of an agent on its near future. It has been sho…
In this paper we discuss Bayesian nonconvex penalization for sparse learning problems. We explore a nonparametric formulation for latent shrinkage parameters using subordinators which are one-dimensional Lévy processes. We particularly study a family of continuous compound Poisson subordinators and a family of discrete…
We study the problem of maximising terminal utility for an agent facing model uncertainty, in a frictionless discrete-time market with one safe asset and finitely many risky assets. We show that an optimal investment strategy exists if the utility function, defined either over the positive real line or over the whole r…
We propose a projection pursuit (PP) algorithm based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). The negentropy obtained from a multivariate density estimated by GMMs is adopted as the PP index to be maximised. For a fixed dimension of the projection subspace, the GMM-based density estimation is projected onto that subspace, wh…
We present a general method for fitting finite mixture models (FMM). Learning in a mixture model consists of finding the most likely cluster assignment for each data-point, as well as finding the parameters of the clusters themselves. In many mixture models, this is difficult with current learning methods, where the mo…
A new algorithm detects changes in data with constant cost per iteration.
Framework for multi-scale clustering using phase transitions.
Paper improves VaR risk allocation by avoiding zero probability events.
A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal portfolio state is conducted by a series of single-step optimisations under the …
We show that the Reeb vector, and hence in particular the volume, of a Sasaki-Einstein metric on the base of a toric Calabi-Yau cone of complex dimension n may be computed by minimising a function Z on R^n which depends only on the toric data that defines the singularity. In this way one can extract certain geometric i…
AEGiS optimizes expensive function evaluations asynchronously.