We formalize and decompose reinforcement learning problems with exogenous state variables and rewards.
problem Exogenous state variables and rewards slow down reinforcement learning.
method Formalized exogenous state variables and rewards, decomposed MDPs, derived variance-covariance condition, developed algorithms.
result Monte Carlo policy evaluation on the endogenous MDP is accelerated compared to using the full MDP.
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
problem Exogenous state variables and rewards slow reinforcement learning by introducing uncontrolled variation.
method Formalizes exogenous state variables and rewards, decomposes MDP into exogenous and endogenous components, and introduces algorithms to discover these components.
result Optimal policies for the endogenous MDP are also optimal for the original MDP, but the endogenous MDP is easier to solve due to reduced variance.
A new method infers causal direction from discrete variables using entropy of unobserved exogenous variables.
problem Identifying causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data.
method Assumes simplicity of unobserved exogenous variable using Rényi entropy and proposes an efficient greedy algorithm.
result Proves that if exogenous variable has low entropy in true direction, it must have high entropy in wrong direction.
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
problem Maximizing target variables in structural causal models.
method Learn exogenous variable distributions to improve surrogate models' fidelity.
result Improves approximation of structural causal models and broader application scenarios.
Proposes an interpretable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables.
problem Lack of variable importance characterization in recurrent neural networks.
method Develops a multi-variable LSTM with tensorized hidden states for learning variable-specific representations.
result Variable attention in real datasets is highly aligned with statistical causality.
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
HRHN predicts time series by integrating exogenous data and temporal dynamics.
problem Challenges in predicting time series with exogenous data and temporal dynamics.
method Hierarchical attention-based Recurrent Highway Network (HRHN) that considers interactions among exogenous variables and temporal dynamics.
result HRHN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in time series prediction, especially in capturing sudden changes and oscillations.
Proposes a multi-variable LSTM for accurate time series forecasting and variable importance.
problem Current attention mechanisms in recurrent neural networks fail to characterize variable importance in time series with exogenous variables.
method Develops a multi-variable LSTM with tensorized hidden states to learn variable importance and a mixture of temporal and variable attention.
result Demonstrates superior prediction performance and variable importance quantification compared to baselines.
Paper introduces a novel traffic forecasting model using autoencoders and exogenous variables.
problem Traffic forecasting using aggregated data from vehicles and infrastructure.
method Recurrent Autoencoder with skip connections and exogenous variables for dynamic traffic data.
result Model predicts speed, volume, and traffic direction with exogenous variables like weather and time.
Improved electricity price forecasting with NBEATSx model.
problem Forecasting electricity prices with limited data.
method Extended NBEATS model to include exogenous variables.
result Significantly improved forecast accuracy (up to 5%) compared to existing methods.
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.
SPLK reduces Kriging complexity for large spatial datasets with exogenous variables.
problem Efficiently modeling large-scale spatial systems with exogenous variables.
method Sparse Pseudo-input Local Kriging (SPLK) using hyperplanes for domain partitioning and sparse approximation.
result SPLK outperforms or matches existing methods for spatial datasets.
HL algorithms improve resource allocation in cloud environments.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with exogenous variables.
method HL algorithms leverage exogenous variable samples to infer counterfactual consequences.
result HL algorithms outperform classic methods and reinforcement learning in resource allocation.
Paper proves causal direction can be inferred from data with limited randomness.
problem Inferring causal direction from observational data with limited randomness.
method Entropy measurement and structural causal models.
result Causal direction is identifiable for most causal models with limited entropy.
SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.
problem Interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, demand flexibility, market volatility, and weather impact probabilistic forecasts.
method Adaptive state-space exogenous context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture.
result Achieved best CRPS in 14 out of 18 settings, reducing CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27%.
The paper evaluates income credibility using a hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique.
problem Automatic evaluation of credibility of exogenous variables like income based on endogenous variables.
method Adapted hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique for credibility evaluation, combining statistics with machine learning.
result The method allows for the automatic evaluation of credibility of income data, with high density values considered credible.
Deep state space model forecasts time series with uncertainty.
problem Probabilistic forecasting for risk management.
method Parameterized deep networks for non-linear models, recurrent neural nets for dependency, ARD network for exogenous variables.
result Accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts with realistic uncertainty growth.
Method identifies unknown intervention targets in structural causal models from diverse data.
problem Identifying unknown intervention targets in structural causal models from heterogeneous data.
method Two-phase approach: first recovers exogenous noises, second matches with endogenous variables.
result Proposed method uniquely identifies intervention targets under causal sufficiency assumption.
Identifies patient-specific root causes of disease using structural equation models.
problem Detecting significant variables in complex diseases that differ between patients.
method Defining patient-specific root causes as exogenous errors in a structural equation model, quantifying predictivity using Shapley values, and developing a fast algorithm called Root Causal Inference.
result Significant improvements in accuracy by uncovering root causes with large effect sizes at the individual level but clinically insignificant effect sizes at the group level.
Optimizes PnL using linear signals in quantitative finance.
problem Maximizing profit and loss in financial trading.
method Unsupervised machine learning approach that maximizes Sharpe Ratio through linear relationships and parameter optimization.
result Empirical validation and effectiveness of the model on U.S. Treasury ETF.
New method tackles endogeneity in online learning with improved regret bounds.
problem Endogeneity in real data due to omitted variables, strategic behaviors, etc.
method O2SLS (Online Two-Stage Least Squares) for Instrumental Variable (IV) regression.
result O2SLS achieves identification and oracle regret bounds for stochastic online learning.
New approach reveals causal and probabilistic relationships from equations.
problem Understanding causal and probabilistic relationships from sets of equations.
method Simon's causal ordering algorithm and Markov ordering graph construction.
result Implied conditional independences and causal relations without solving equations.
Paper compares ARMA with exogenous variables to Gradient Boosting Regression for electricity price forecasting.
problem Energy price forecasting is hard and multi-step time series forecasting.
method ARMA with exogenous variables vs. Gradient Boosting Regression
result Gradient Boosting Regression outperforms ARMA with exogenous variables in terms of error metrics.
Paper proposes a new MAR model for global economic forecasting.
problem Joint modeling of economic and financial variables across countries.
method Sparse matrix autoregressive model with trade network integration.
result Sparse component differentiates systematic and idiosyncratic cross-predictability.
EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables for counterfactual fairness in machine learning.
problem Balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in models with sensitive attributes.
method EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables to define an auxiliary node and a control node for counterfactual fairness.
result EXOC framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in achieving counterfactual fairness.
Novel method identifies structural differences between networks using structural equation models.
problem Identifying structural differences between networks characterized by structural equation models.
method Reparameterization and algorithm design with calibration and construction stages to identify differential structures.
result Our method outperformed independently constructed networks on synthetic data and demonstrated applicability on a real data set.
This study compares machine learning models for short-term stock price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term stock price prediction in the NYSE.
method Compared four machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron, Support Vector Regression) on NYSE stocks.
result XGBoost model outperformed others with highest accuracy.
Improved online penalty selection for time series models.
problem Efficiently selecting penalty parameters for lasso in time series models.
method Enhanced autoregressive model with online penalty selection.
result Significantly improved computational performance and forecast accuracy.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Modeling financial markets with endogenous and exogenous noise.
problem Understanding long-range dependence and volatility in financial markets.
method Agent-based and stochastic modeling combining endogenous and exogenous noise.
result Exogenous noise is crucial for comprehensive financial market modeling.
We investigate the trading behavior of a large set of single investors trading the highly liquid Nokia stock over the period 2003-2008 with the aim of determining the relative role of endogenous and exogenous factors that may affect their behavior. As endogenous factors we consider returns and volatility, whereas the e…
Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.
problem Detect and attribute climate change impacts from observations robustly.
method Supervised learning with anchor regression for robust predictions under interventions.
result CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature patterns under strong solar forcing interventions.
Paper harmonizes medical data using flow-based causal inference.
problem Heterogeneity in medical data from different sites and protocols.
method Flow-based normalizing method for counterfactual inference on structural causal models.
result Better cross-domain generalization compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.
Generates counterfactuals in target domain from source domain observations.
problem Cross-domain learning with domain shifts and lack of parallel datasets.
method Unsupervised, Neural Causal Models, Joint Causal Graphs, Effect-Intrinsic vs Domain-Intrinsic Variables.
result Framework generates counterfactuals that closely match ground truth.
Paper proposes a method to estimate counterfactual outcomes without a known SCM.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes without a known structural causal model.
method Introduces rank preservation assumption and a novel ideal loss for unbiased learning of counterfactual outcomes.
result The proposed method is effective and unbiased, as shown by theoretical analysis and experiments.
We study the asymptotic properties of the adaptive Lasso in cointegration regressions in the case where all covariates are weakly exogenous. We assume the number of candidate I(1) variables is sub-linear with respect to the sample size (but possibly larger) and the number of candidate I(0) variables is polynomial with …
Predicting movie box office success using historical data and modern computing.
problem Manual prediction of movie revenue is difficult due to many exogenous variables.
method Use modern computing power and historical data to model movie revenue.
result Predicted movie revenues can be used for planning production and distribution stages.
ddml aids causal inference in econometrics with machine learning.
problem Estimation of causal effects with endogenous variables and unknown functional forms.
method Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) in Stata.
result Monte Carlo evidence supports using DDML with stacking for causal inference.
New method identifies extreme risk propagation in financial networks.
problem Understanding extreme risk in financial networks.
method Max-linear structural equation model, hard-thresholding, Hamming distance.
result Sparse DAG for extreme risk propagation estimated.
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
problem Differentiating between exogenous and endogenous price jumps.
method Synchronized news data with order book data to analyze stock price movements.
result Exogenous jumps are abrupt and follow a decaying power-law, while endogenous jumps are progressively accelerating.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
problem Challenges to conventional counterfactual reasoning in AI and psychology.
method Formalizes a backtracking approach to counterfactuals within the SCM framework.
result First general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals.
New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.
problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.
We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
problem Reducing sample complexity in reinforcement learning for structured MDPs.
method Introducing Exo-MDPs and proving structural equivalence to linear mixture MDPs, establishing regret bounds.
result Proved O ( H 3 / 2 d K ) O(H^{3/2}d\sqrt{K}) O ( H 3/2 d K ) regret bound for Exo-MDPs, matching lower bounds. This paper uses NARX neural networks for macroeconomic forecasting and goal setting.
problem Improving accuracy in macroeconomic forecasting and goal setting.
method Literature review and construction of specific NARX neural networks for macroeconomic indicators.
result NARX neural networks can be trained to make accurate predictions for macroeconomic indicators and national goals.
This paper enhances LSTM neural networks for multi-variable time series data, providing interpretable insights.
problem Accurate prediction of multi-variable time series data with interpretable insights.
method Variable-wise hidden states and a mixture attention mechanism to model the generative process of the target variable.
result Enhanced prediction performance by capturing the dynamics of different variables.
A new model decomposes market variability into interpretable components.
problem Understanding the factors driving market variability and predicting future movements.
method H-SGDLM framework with HAR-RV model for GPU-scalable multivariate volatility estimation.
result Superior performance in predicting large moves and longer-term market variability.
The paper explains how speculative supply and demand amplify financial market fluctuations.
problem The wild fluctuations of financial prices.
method Formally, the paper shows that asset returns follow a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input.
result The theory explains the power-law distribution of returns and related variables.
Novel tensor decomposition identifies directed network topologies from nodal data.
problem Identifying hidden directed network topologies from nodal data.
method Three-way tensor factorization using PARAFAC decomposition with second-order exogenous inputs.
result Topology can be identified from second-order exogenous inputs and time-varying factors.