ESNs trained with Tikhonov least squares approximate ergodic dynamical systems in L2(μ) norm.
problem Approximating ergodic dynamical systems using ESNs.
method Tikhonov least squares regression on ESNs trained on observations from an ergodic dynamical system.
result ESNs trained with Tikhonov least squares approximate the target function in the L2(μ) norm.
This paper addresses metaconsistency in Bayesian inference for metastable systems.
problem Inference for metastable systems may not be consistent, but can be metaconsistent over large but finite time intervals.
method Introduces metaconsistency in a Bayesian framework, discusses its relation to spectral properties of model dynamics.
result Metaconsistency can be exploited to infer sub-systems efficiently from larger systems.
The Oseledets Multiplicative Ergodic theorem is a basic result with numerous applications throughout dynamical systems. These notes provide an introduction to this theorem, as well as subsequent generalizations. They are based on lectures at summer schools in Brazil, France, and Russia.
Method upgrades limit theorems to mixing limit theorems for dynamical systems.
problem Improving limit theorems for dynamical systems.
method General method for upgrading limit theorems to mixing limit theorems.
result Mixing limit theorems for specific subbundles of the Kontsevich-Zorich cocycle.
Investigates spontaneous symmetry breaking in non-equilibrium systems.
problem Spontaneous symmetry breaking of ergodicity in non-equilibrium systems.
method Mathematical and effective field theory approaches to investigate symmetry breaking.
result Symmetry breaking phenomena observed in stochastic processes.
Study of flows on circle bundles over translation surfaces, showing decay of correlations.
problem Ergodic properties of flows on circle bundles over translation surfaces.
method Generalizing Heisenberg nilflows to more general base surfaces, showing relatively mixing.
result Showed that such flows exhibit decay of correlations in the orthogonal complement of functions constant along fibers.
The paper introduces reservoir computing models for complex systems.
problem Modeling complex engineering systems using nonlinear autoregression.
method Introduces reservoir computing with output feedback as stationary and ergodic infinite-order nonlinear autoregressive models.
result Demonstrates versatility of classical and quantum reservoir computers in modeling synthetic and real data.
We propose a general framework for constructing and describing infinite type flat surfaces of finite area. Using this method, we characterize the range of dynamical behaviors possible for the vertical translation flows on such flat surfaces. We prove a sufficient condition for ergodicity of this flow and apply the cond…
We study how resetting affects geometric Brownian motion, showing it becomes stationary but remains non-ergodic.
problem Effects of stochastic resetting on geometric Brownian motion.
method Analysis of geometric Brownian motion under stochastic resetting.
result Resetting makes geometric Brownian motion stationary but non-ergodic.
New method improves long-term forecasting of stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Improving long-term forecasting accuracy for stochastic dynamical systems.
method Combining Koopman and transfer operator theory with feature centering.
result Learning bounds ensure uniform performance on future distributions.
We present an extension of the ergodic, mixing, and Bernoulli levels of the ergodic hierarchy for statistical models on curved manifolds, making use of elements of the information geometry. This extension focuses on the notion of statistical independence between the microscopical variables of the system. Moreover, we e…
We started from computer experiments with simple one-dimensional ergodic dynamical systems called interval exchange transformations. Correlators in these systems decay as a power of time. In the simplest non-trivial case the exponent is equal to 1/3. We found a formula connecting characteristic exponents with explicit …
We study the dynamics of the `batch' minority game with market-impact correction using generating functional techniques to carry out the quenched disorder average. We find that the assumption of weak long-term memory, which one usually makes in order to calculate ergodic stationary states, breaks down when the persiste…
Continuity of earthquake flow map transfers Teichmüller dynamics results.
problem Transfer results from Teichmüller dynamics to earthquake flow.
method Analyze continuity of earthquake flow map and its inverse.
result Transfer results from Teichmüller dynamics to earthquake flow.
The paper connects function theory, dynamics, and ergodic theory via Thurston's theory.
problem Function theory on Teichmüller space and dynamics of mapping class groups.
method Utilizes Thurston's theory and Sullivan's theory on discrete subgroups of hyperbolic space.
result Establishes connections between function theory, dynamics, and ergodic theory.
We introduce and solve a new type of quadratic backward stochastic differential equation systems defined in an infinite time horizon, called \emph{ergodic BSDE systems}. Such systems arise naturally as candidate solutions to characterize forward performance processes and their associated optimal trading strategies in a…
We present a general Markovian framework for order book modeling. Through our approach, we aim at providing a tool enabling to get a better understanding of the price formation process and of the link between microscopic and macroscopic features of financial assets. To do so, we propose a new method of order book repre…
We extend Teichmueller dynamics to a flow on the total space of a flat bundle of deformation spaces of representations of the fundamental group of a fixed surface S in a Lie group G. The resulting dynamical system is a continuous version of the action of the mapping class group of S on the deformation space. We observe…
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
problem Improving velocity of money prediction for economic control.
method Log-ergodic processes to simulate monetary velocity.
result Log-ergodic model offers superior predictive power.
Study shows non-wandering, partially hyperbolic systems are ergodic.
problem Ergodicity of partially hyperbolic systems.
method Analysis of partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms, focusing on non-wandering systems.
result These systems are ergodic when they preserve volume, confirming a conjecture.
ISALT uses inference to simulate SDEs with large time-steps, improving efficiency.
problem Efficiently simulating ergodic SDEs with large time-steps.
method Inference-based schemes adaptive to large time-steps (ISALT) from data.
result ISALT achieves significant time reduction and optimal accuracy.
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
AdaBoost is one of the most popular ML algorithms. It is simple to implement and often found very effective by practitioners, while still being mathematically elegant and theoretically sound. AdaBoost's interesting behavior in practice still puzzles the ML community. We address the algorithm's stability and establish m…
Study invariant measures on measured laminations for subgroups of mapping class group.
problem Classify invariant Radon measures on space of measured laminations for subgroups of mapping class group.
method Geometric approach, focusing on recurrent measured laminations, explicitly constructing ergodic measures.
result Show uniquely ergodic for divergence-type subgroups, generalize results for full mapping class group.
New method stabilizes quantum ergodicity for mixed quantization and partial hyperbolicity.
problem Stabilizing quantum ergodicity for complex systems.
method Combines mixed quantization techniques with stable ergodicity results for partially hyperbolic systems.
result Establishes stable quantum ergodicity for spin Hamiltonians.
Study links fractal structure to generalization in stochastic optimization.
problem Understanding generalization in stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Represented stochastic optimization algorithms as random iterated function systems (IFS) and used dynamical systems theory.
result Proved that generalization error can be bounded based on fractal structure of invariant measure.
The paper develops a model for sovereign debt dynamics with explicit maturity structure.
problem Analyzing the sustainability and risk of long-term sovereign debt issuance.
method Discrete-time model with explicit maturity structure, deterministic and stochastic extensions.
result The model identifies conditions for ergodic convergence and derives analytical formulas for key metrics.
We extend a result regarding the Random Backward Iteration algorithm for drawing Julia sets (known to work for certain rational semigroups containing a non-Möbius element) to a class of Möbius semigroups which includes certain settings not yet been dealt with in the literature, namely, when the Julia set is not a thick…
Study shows mapping class group action is ergodic on specific representations.
problem Ergodicity of mapping class group action on specific representations.
method Applied symplectic methods developed by Goldman and Xia.
result The action is ergodic.
Study shows dynamics of rank 1 orbifolds in flat surfaces.
problem Characterize dynamics of rank 1 affine invariant orbifolds.
method Analyzes M-isoperiodic foliations and their ergodic properties.
result Leaves of the isoperiodic foliation are either all closed or all dense.
This paper proves the following: A volume preserving vector field on a compact 3-manifold whose dual 2-form is exact can not generate uniquely ergodic dynamics unless its asymptotic linking number is zero.
This paper analyzes the convergence of dynamic HMC and NUTS methods.
problem Theoretical understanding of dynamic HMC and NUTS convergence.
method General class of MCMC algorithms, NUTS as a particular case, geometric ergodicity, irreducibility.
result NUTS is geometrically ergodic under certain conditions and ergodic without bounded stepsize.
Proposes a method to estimate SDE noise from a single trajectory.
problem Estimating SDE noise from a single data trajectory without ergodicity or stationarity.
method Combining Taylor expansions, Girsanov transformations, and drift function's initial value for drift and noise estimation.
result First SSISDE algorithm capable of identifying SDE dynamics from a single trajectory.
Study partially hyperbolic dynamics on 3-manifolds with quasi-isometric center.
problem Characterize dynamics on 3-manifolds with specific center properties.
method Analyzes partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms with quasi-isometric center under non-wandering conditions.
result Volume-preserving diffeomorphisms are ergodic without su-tori, confirming a conjecture. We solve the dynamics of the on-line minority game, with general types of decision noise, using generating functional techniques a la De Dominicis and the temporal regularization procedure of Bedeaux et al. The result is a macroscopic dynamical theory in the form of closed equations for correlation- and response functi…
A natural generalization of interval exchange maps are linear involutions, first introduced by Danthony and Nogueira. Recurrent train tracks with a single switch provide a subclass of linear involutions. We call such linear involutions non-classical interval exchanges. They are related to measured foliations on orienta…
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
SGLD proves geometric ergodicity via reflection coupling for nonconvex log-concave distributions.
problem Proving geometric ergodicity of SGLD in nonconvex, log-concave settings.
method Reflection coupling technique to handle SGLD's time discretization and minibatch issues.
result SGLD has an invariant distribution and geometric ergodicity in W1 distance. New SDE model from machine learning optimization with unique stationary distribution.
problem Stationary distribution of machine learning optimization models.
method Proved ergodicity and unique stationary distribution of power-law dynamic SDE.
result Power-law dynamic has a unique stationary distribution and is ergodic.
The paper tackles learning to control systems with unknown parameters using Brownian noise.
problem Learning to control systems with unknown parameters.
method Proposes algorithms based on moving empirical averages and integrates statistical methods with stochastic control theory.
result Achieves a logarithmic expected regret rate.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
New method for long-term sampling of complex dynamics on curved spaces.
problem Sampling ergodic dynamics on Riemannian manifolds efficiently over long periods.
method Intrinsic geometric operations for sampling invariant measure without embeddings.
result Outperforms previous methods in long-term sampling efficiency.
Classifies 3D partially hyperbolic systems, proving ergodicity.
problem Ergodicity of partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms in 3-manifolds.
method Topological classification, Anosov flows, foliations, Gromov hyperbolicity.
result Complete answer to Hertz-Hertz-Ures conjecture for 3D systems.
We introduce a data-based approach to estimating key quantities which arise in the study of nonlinear control systems and random nonlinear dynamical systems. Our approach hinges on the observation that much of the existing linear theory may be readily extended to nonlinear systems - with a reasonable expectation of suc…
Coercivity condition ensures learning of interacting particle systems.
problem Ensuring identifiability of interaction functions in learning systems of interacting particles.
method Equivalence of coercivity condition to strictly positive definiteness of an integral kernel.
result For ergodic systems, the integral kernel is strictly positive definite, satisfying the coercivity condition.
The paper extends geometric results from negatively-curved spaces to strictly convex Hilbert geometry.
problem Extending geometric results from negatively-curved spaces to strictly convex Hilbert geometry.
method Demonstrates dynamical and counting results for geometrically-finite strictly convex projective structures with Hilbert metric.
result Hilbert geodesic flow is strongly mixing and orbits and primitive closed geodesics equidistribute.
The paper introduces a new method to create stable ergodic actions on higher-dimensional manifolds.
problem Stable ergodicity of group actions on smooth manifolds restricted to one-dimensional cases.
method Geometric method using quasi-conformal blender for constructing stable local dynamics.
result Every closed manifold admits stably ergodic finitely generated group actions by diffeomorphisms of class C1+α.