Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…
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48 results for “Empirical Risk Principle”
Prove non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk in statistical learning
problem Estimating minimal risk in statistical learning
method Using concentration inequalities
result Non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk
The Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) provides the theoretical guarantees for supervised machine learning based on the Empirical Risk Minimization Principle (ERMP). Such principle defines an upper bound to ensure the uniform convergence of the empirical risk Remp(f), i.e., the error measured on a given data sample, to …
Improved Sample Complexity For Diffusion Model Training Without Empirical Risk Minimizer Accesscs.LG
Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.
problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.
Paper analyzes time series prediction using empirical risk minimization.
problem Optimizing 1-step-ahead prediction for time series.
method Empirical risk minimization applied to recursive algorithms for time series forecasting.
result Empirical risk minimization achieves optimal predictive performance.
Develops a measure for subjective explainability of ML predictions.
problem Ensuring transparency and trust in automated decision-making.
method Information-theoretic concepts applied to conditional entropy of predictions given user feedback.
result EERM principle balances subjective explainability and risk.
Noise-ignorant empirical risk minimization achieves state-of-the-art performance on noisy data.
problem Learning with noisy labels in multi-class classification problems.
method Introducing relative signal strength (RSS) to quantify transferability and applying Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM).
result NI-ERM achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-N data challenge.
Stochastic measure distortions induced by quantile processes for risk quantification and valuationq-fin.RM
New method for risk quantification using quantile processes and measure distortions.
problem Risk quantification and valuation in financial markets.
method Develops a novel stochastic valuation principle based on probability measure distortions induced by quantile processes.
result Introduces a system of subjective probability measures that indexes a stochastic valuation principle susceptible to probability measure distortions.
Discrete time multi-period mean-variance model: Bellman type strategy and Empirical analysisq-fin.MF
Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.
Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where large weights arise with high probability. We study its sampling variance as a funct…
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
problem Subjective risk loading parameters in classification ratemaking.
method Bootstrap method to calculate total risk premium, then determine risk loading parameters using quantile regression models.
result Risk premiums calculated by the new method reasonably differentiate different risk classes.
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to managing the Value at Risk (VaR) assuming a heavy tailed distribution of the stock prices return. We use a stochastic maximum principle to formulate the…
A new method to break down insurance costs into risk and uncertainty.
problem Understanding and quantifying insurance costs in uncertain environments.
method An axiomatic approach to decompose premium principles into risk and deviation measures.
result Maximal risk and minimal deviation measures can be uniquely identified in decompositions.
This work characterizes optimal multiclass learning with regularization.
problem The empirical risk minimization (ERM) algorithm fails in multiclass learning settings.
method Using one-inclusion graphs (OIGs), the work introduces optimal learning algorithms that relax structural risk minimization and incorporate unsupervised learning.
result An optimal learner is introduced that uses a local regularization function and an unsupervised learning stage to learn the regularizer.
The study provides theoretical guarantees for the statistical performance of optimal decision trees.
problem Theoretical limits on the statistical performance of globally optimal decision trees.
method Sharp oracle inequalities and uniform concentration framework based on Rademacher complexity.
result Derivation of minimax optimal rates for piecewise sparse heterogeneous anisotropic Besov space.
Innovative Extensions to Option Pricing: Asymmetric Brownian Motion and Random Walk Approachesq-fin.MF
Innovative extensions to option pricing models using asymmetric Brownian motion and random walk approaches.
problem Capturing empirical phenomena like return skewness, heavy tails, and volatility asymmetry in option pricing models.
method Developing the Geometric Asymmetric Brownian Motion (GABM) within the Bachelier--Black--Scholes--Merton framework.
result Deriving closed-form option pricing formulas and a discrete-time binomial tree algorithm that converges to the GABM limit.
Establishes upper bounds on generalization error in active learning.
problem Improving query algorithms in active learning.
method Derives upper bounds on generalization error using informativeness and representativeness query strategies.
result Validates the use of regularization techniques to ensure bounds' validity.
Paper explores universal rates of ERM in machine learning.
problem Understanding universal learning rates for ERM.
method Analyzes realizable concept classes and ERM principles.
result Four possible universal learning rates by ERM.
This study uses NLP to detect financial risks from documents.
problem Detecting and predicting financial risks in documents.
method NLP model design, text preprocessing, feature extraction, machine learning.
result NLP model effectively identifies and predicts financial risks.
Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is impor…
We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit …
New risk-sharing rules induced by capital allocation principles.
problem Risk sharing in corporate structures.
method Randomizing existing capital allocation principles.
result Derives new risk-sharing rules complementing existing literature.
This research improves forecasting and testing of risk contributions using Expected Shortfall.
problem Improving risk allocation and testing methods for regulatory standards.
method Developed a comprehensive framework for backtesting and forecasting Expected Shortfall contributions.
result Proposed a novel semiparametric model for forecasting dynamic Expected Shortfall contributions.
Transformers recall from long distributions with statistical guarantees.
problem Designing Transformers that can recall from arbitrarily long, distributional contexts.
method Recast associative memory as probability measures, decomposing the task into recall and prediction.
result A shallow measure-theoretic Transformer learns the recall-and-predict map under spectral assumptions.
Capital allocation principles are used in various contexts in which a risk capital or a cost of an aggregate position has to be allocated among its constituent parts. We study capital allocation principles in a performance measurement framework. We introduce the notation of suitability of allocations for performance me…
Adaptive Noisy Clusteringmath.ST
The problem of adaptive noisy clustering is investigated. Given a set of noisy observations , , the goal is to design clusters associated with the law of 's, with unknown density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. Since we observe a corrupted sample, a direct approach as the popular …
Networked data, in which every training example involves two objects and may share some common objects with others, is used in many machine learning tasks such as learning to rank and link prediction. A challenge of learning from networked examples is that target values are not known for some pairs of objects. In this …
The vicinal risk minimization (VRM) principle, first proposed by \citet{vapnik1999nature}, is an empirical risk minimization (ERM) variant that replaces Dirac masses with vicinal functions. Although there is strong numerical evidence showing that VRM outperforms ERM if appropriate vicinal functions are chosen, a compre…
This work establishes uniform convergence of subdifferentials in stochastic optimization.
problem Understanding how empirical stationary points approximate population ones in nonsmooth, nonconvex stochastic optimization.
method Reduction principle for weakly convex stochastic objectives, focusing on subgradient convergence.
result Sharp uniform convergence rates for subdifferential mappings in stochastic convex-composite optimization.
In machine learning we often try to optimise a decision rule that would have worked well over a historical dataset; this is the so called empirical risk minimisation principle. In the context of learning from recommender system logs, applying this principle becomes a problem because we do not have available the reward …
A new method for imputing missing data using graphical models.
problem Missing data in graphs and its impact on analysis.
method MMG framework based on conditional independence and PAI principle.
result Valid and efficient method for imputing missing data.
New data-dependent priors improve PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving PAC-Bayes bounds for nonconvex learning.
method Using data to learn a conditional expectation of the posterior, given a subset of training data.
result Data-dependent oracle priors lead to stronger PAC-Bayes bounds.
A new method for selective classification trades off accuracy for coverage.
problem Selective classification allows a classifier to abstain from predicting some instances.
method Optimizes a collection of class-wise decoupled one-sided empirical risks.
result The method achieves near-optimal coverage in high target accuracy regimes.
Variance Contractsq-fin.RM
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
Neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples and researchers have proposed many heuristic attack and defense mechanisms. We address this problem through the principled lens of distributionally robust optimization, which guarantees performance under adversarial input perturbations. By considering a Lagrangian …
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
problem Valuation and risk assessment of non-standard renewable PPAs.
method Formalizes payoff structures, derives fair contract prices, proposes market risk-assessment methodology.
result Fair prices and risk profiles vary across technologies and contractual structures.
Develops Bayesian approach for end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization.
problem Stochastic optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Bayesian interpretation and new end-to-end learning algorithms.
result Improved decision maps for empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
This paper extends Median-of-Means to new learning problems involving pairwise comparisons.
problem Learning from pairwise comparisons in machine learning.
method Segmenting data into blocks, comparing pairs of decision rules, and declaring the winner based on majority performance.
result The Median-of-Means approach maintains robustness and performance under various sampling schemes.
Study shows OAT decomposition generates unexplained profit and loss, while SU decompositions depend on risk factor order.
problem Understanding profit and loss attribution in financial markets.
method Used financial market data from 2003 to 2022 to compare OAT, SU, and ASU decompositions.
result SU decompositions are sensitive to risk factor order and cannot identify all relevant risk factors.
LOO prediction method improves generalization guarantees for arbitrary datasets.
problem Understanding LOO error guarantees in fully transductive settings for arbitrary datasets.
method Median of Level-Set Aggregation (MLSA) for empirical-risk level sets.
result Multiplicative oracle inequality for LOO error with complexity scaling.
This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for risk management.
problem Identifying and certifying risk claims when institutions lack the necessary epistemic stance.
method Develops crisp and fuzzy modal semantics for assurance and working commitment, distinguishing between object-level risk claims and meta-level epistemic diagnostics.
result Risk governance should model evidential incompleteness and failures of escalation, not just hazards and losses.
Bayesian approach optimizes in-context learning for state space models.
problem Optimizing in-context learning for state space models.
method Bayesian optimal sequential prediction over latent sequence tasks.
result Bayesian optimal predictor converges to posterior predictive mean.
Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process based Empirical Potential Development for Si:H Nanowiresphysics.comp-ph
Developed accurate empirical potentials for Si:H nanowires using multi-fidelity Gaussian process.
problem Accurate modeling of Si:H nanowires using fast but inaccurate empirical potentials and slow but accurate first-principle calculations.
method Employed multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression to integrate low-fidelity empirical potential data with high-fidelity first-principle calculations.
result Demonstrated the accuracy of developed empirical potentials for Si:H nanowires.
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly influencing our decisions and interacting with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just like for power plants, highways, and myriad other engineered sociotechnical systems, we must consider the safety of systems involving machine learning. In this paper, we first …
New algorithm learns efficiently with a simple 'yes/no' oracle.
problem Can efficient learning be achieved with a simpler oracle than ERM?
method Developed an oracle that returns 'yes' or 'no' for realizable datasets.
result Learnability is possible with a polynomial price in VC dimension.
In this paper we formulate in general terms an approach to prove strong consistency of the Empirical Risk Minimisation inductive principle applied to the prototype or distance based clustering. This approach was motivated by the Divisive Information-Theoretic Feature Clustering model in probabilistic space with Kullbac…
New framework using Jensen-Shannon divergence improves domain adaptation theory.
problem Incoherence between empirical domain adversarial training and theoretical -divergence.
method Established new theoretical framework based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, derived bi-directional upper bounds.
result Framework exhibits flexibilities for various transfer learning problems.