Power system emergency control is generally regarded as the last safety net for grid security and resiliency. Existing emergency control schemes are usually designed off-line based on either the conceived "worst" case scenario or a few typical operation scenarios. These schemes are facing significant adaptiveness and r…
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48 results for “Emerging Powers”
This paper ranks Latin American countries based on AI potential.
problem Identifying emerging AI powers in Latin America.
method Ranking based on infrastructure, education, and finance.
result Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Ecuador are new emerging powers in AI.
Year by year control of normal and emergency conditions of up-to-date power systems becomes an increasingly complicated problem. With the increasing complexity the existing control system of power system conditions which includes operative actions of the dispatcher and work of special automatic devices proves to be ins…
Role of Selective Interaction in Wealth Distributionphysics.soc-ph
In our simplified description `wealth' is money (). A kinetic theory of gas like model of money is investigated where two agents interact (trade) selectively and exchange some amount of money between them so that sum of their money is unchanged and thus total money of all the agents remains conserved. The probabilit…
Emergence of double scaling law in complex systemphysics.soc-ph
We introduce a stochastic model to explain a double power-law distribution which exhibits two different Paretian behaviors in the upper and the lower tail and widely exists in social and economic systems. The model incorporates fitness consideration and noise fluctuation. We find that if the number of variables (e.g. t…
A minimal model of a market of myopic non-cooperative agents who trade bilaterally with random bids reproduces qualitative features of short-term electric power markets, such as those in California and New England. Each agent knows its own budget and preferences but not those of any other agent. The near-equilibrium pr…
A hierarchical model shows how scaling laws emerge from sequential feature recovery.
problem Emergence of scaling laws from feature learning in multi-layer networks.
method Layer-wise spectral algorithm adapted to compositional structure, sequential feature detection.
result Sequential detection of latent features, leading to explicit power-law decay of prediction error.
On the interplay between short and long term memory in the power-law cross-correlations settingstat.ME
We focus on emergence of the power-law cross-correlations from processes with both short and long term memory properties. In the case of correlated error-terms, the power-law decay of the cross-correlation function comes automatically with the characteristics of separate processes. Bivariate Hurst exponent is then equa…
In the spirit of the emergent field of econophysics, a goodness-of-fit test for the Power-Law distribution, based on the Empirical Distribution Function (EDF) is presented, and related problems are discussed. An analysis of the tail behaviour of the daily logarithmic variation of the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC), s…
There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that th…
Unified theory of deep learning from approximation to emergence.
problem Understanding the mechanisms behind deep learning.
method Unified, proof-oriented approach tracing from classical foundations to contemporary mechanisms.
result Unified theory explaining deep learning from approximation to emergence.
An exactly solvable model for emergence and scaling laws in the multitask sparse parity problemcs.LG
Solves a model for sudden problem-solving ability in deep learning.
problem Emergence of new problem-solving abilities in deep learning models.
method Solves a simple multi-linear model in a skill-basis, finding analytic expressions for emergence and scaling laws.
result Simple model captures sigmoidal emergence of multiple new skills in neural networks.
Develops a framework for analyzing multi-agent and many-body systems with feedback loops.
problem Optimal order of multi-agent and general many-body systems
method Derive macroscopic properties and optimal degree of order
result Optimal degree of order balances productivity, stability, and adaptability
Method detects critical events in complex systems by learning latent causal structure.
problem Detecting onset of epileptic seizures, customer churn, or pandemics from hidden causal interactions.
method A machine learning method that learns an optimal feature representation from powers of the empirical covariance or precision matrix.
result Proves structural consistency and demonstrates competitive results in seizure and churn prediction.
Superposition accelerates training to a universal power-law exponent.
problem Training dynamics in neural networks.
method Teacher-student framework and analytic theory.
result Superposition leads to a universal power-law exponent of ~1, independent of data and channel statistics.
This paper evaluates investment risks in LATAM AI startups using DCF method.
problem Unique challenges and risks faced by LATAM tech startups.
method Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) metrics; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method.
result Developed a ranking of emerging powers in Latin America for tech startup investment.
We propose a novel neural network embedding approach to model power transmission grids, in which high voltage lines are disconnected and reconnected with one-another from time to time, either accidentally or willfully. We call our architeture LEAP net, for Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbation. Our method implements…
The use of kinetic modelling based on partial differential equations for the dynamics of stock price formation in financial markets is briefly reviewed. The importance of behavioral aspects in market booms and crashes and the role of agents' heterogeneity in emerging power laws for price distributions is emphasized and…
Smooth Kahler-Einstein metrics have been studied for the past 80 years. More recently, singular Kahler-Einstein metrics have emerged as objects of intrinsic interest, both in differential and algebraic geometry, as well as a powerful tool in better understanding their smooth counterparts. This article is mostly a surve…
ARX models predict thermal behavior of WBG semiconductors accurately.
problem Thermal management challenges of WBG semiconductors.
method Use of ARX parametric models based on experimental measurements.
result ARX models provide accurate temperature predictions without detailed component information.
Optimizing Power Grid Topologies with Reinforcement Learning: A Survey of Methods and Challengeseess.SY
Survey of RL methods for optimizing power grid topologies.
problem Optimizing power grid operation with adaptive control strategies.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) for dynamic and uncertain environments.
result Comprehensive evaluation of RL-based methods for power grid topology optimization.
LSTM model predicts stock prices with high accuracy in stable sectors but struggles with volatile ones.
problem Predicting stock prices in emerging markets with limited data.
method Developed and evaluated an LSTM network on historical OHLCV data and technical indicators.
result Strong predictive performance () for stable sectors, but challenges for volatile ones.
Optimal resource allocation is a fundamental challenge for dense and heterogeneous wireless networks with massive wireless connections. Because of the non-convex nature of the optimization problem, it is computationally demanding to obtain the optimal resource allocation. Recently, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has…
The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lo…
The paper investigates heavy-tailed behavior in offline SGD, showing it approximates power-law tails.
problem Understanding heavy-tailed behavior in offline (multi-pass) SGD with finite data.
method Proves nonasymptotic Wasserstein convergence bounds for offline SGD to online SGD.
result Offline SGD exhibits approximate power-law tails as the number of data points increases.
One of the principal statistical features characterizing the activity in financial markets is the distribution of fluctuations in market indicators such as the index. While the developed stock markets, e.g., the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have been found to show heavy-tailed return distribution with a characteristi…
We study by theoretical analysis and by direct numerical simulation the dynamics of a wide class of asynchronous stochastic systems composed of many autocatalytic degrees of freedom. We describe the generic emergence of truncated power laws in the size distribution of their individual elements. The exponents of the…
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
This work connects diffusion models to power iteration, revealing how low frequencies emerge earlier.
problem Understanding the generation process of diffusion models and their relation to power iteration.
method Examined the linear case of diffusion models, connecting them to the spiked covariance model and power iteration.
result Linear diffusion models converge to the leading eigenvector, similar to power iteration.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…
This study compares mtl architectures for renewable power generation forecasting.
problem Forecasting expected power generation for renewable power plants.
method Comparative study of mtl architectures including Hard parameter sharing, cross-stitch network, sluice network, and task embedding.
result Emerging Relation Network (ERN) and task embedding provide significant improvements in forecasting.
Models of wealth distributions: a perspectivephysics.soc-ph
A class of conserved models of wealth distributions are studied where wealth (or money) is assumed to be exchanged between a pair of agents in a population like the elastically colliding molecules of a gas exchanging energy. All sorts of distributions from exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) to something like Gamma distribut…
Geoeconomic analysis of venture capital portfolios reveals key emerging tech domains and countries.
problem Quantifying geoeconomic power and technological sovereignty through venture capital data.
method Economic complexity methods applied to venture capital portfolios and RVA metrics.
result Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity Tools, and Medtech have the highest concentration of specialization among high-GCI countries.
Learning curves theory for hierarchically compositional data with power-law distributed featuresstat.ML
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
method Probabilistic context-free grammars and power-law distributed production rules.
result Unified learning curve behavior for classification and next-token prediction tasks.
Financial markets show a number of non-stationarities, ranging from volatility fluctuations over ever changing technical and regulatory market conditions to seasonalities. On the other hand, financial markets show various stylized facts which are remarkably stable. It is thus an intriguing question to find out how thes…
Study spectral learning for odeco tensors, addressing initialization bottlenecks.
problem Recovering orthogonally decomposable tensors under noise.
method Investigates perturbation bounds, non-convex optimization, and initialization strategies.
result Initialization is the main bottleneck for efficient algorithms.
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the infor…
Financial markets can be seen as complex systems in non-equilibrium steady state, one of whose most important properties is the distribution of price fluctuations. Recently, there have been assertions that this distribution is qualitatively different in emerging markets as compared to developed markets. Here we analyse…
Recent work has shown that tight concentration of the entire spectrum of singular values of a deep network's input-output Jacobian around one at initialization can speed up learning by orders of magnitude. Therefore, to guide important design choices, it is important to build a full theoretical understanding of the spe…
On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tailscond-mat.stat-mech
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of intermittent dynamics generating power law distributions. Using insights on the beha…
An interesting toy model has recently been proposed on Schumpeterian economic dynamics by Thurner {\it et al.} following the idea of economist Joseph Schumpeter. Punctuated equilibrium dynamics is shown to emerge from this model and some detail analyses of the time series indicate SOC kind of behaviours. The focus in t…
Paper develops an attention mechanism for long-term scientific impact prediction.
problem Predicting the long-term impact of scientific papers based on citation records.
method Develops an attention mechanism to predict long-term scientific impact.
result Emphasizing the limited attention can better stand on the shoulders of giants.
Critical volatility triggers log-normal to power-law transitions in interconnected systems.
problem Understanding the transition from log-normal to power-law distributions in interconnected systems.
method Analyzing an infinite option-on-option chain model, deriving a critical volatility threshold.
result A critical volatility threshold of approximately 250.66% for unconditional cases, dropping to 125.3% with selective survival.
Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.
problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.
Price without transaction makes no sense. Trading volume authenticates its corresponding price, so there exist mutual information and correlation between price and trading volume. We are curious about fractal features of this correlation and need to know how structures in different scales translate information. To expl…
Deep learning has emerged as a powerful machine learning technique that learns multiple layers of representations or features of the data and produces state-of-the-art prediction results. Along with the success of deep learning in many other application domains, deep learning is also popularly used in sentiment analysi…
Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
Low-power sensing technologies, such as wearables, have emerged in the healthcare domain since they enable continuous and non-invasive monitoring of physiological signals. In order to endow such devices with clinical value, classical signal processing has encountered numerous challenges. However, data-driven methods, s…