A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study reveals dynamic causal relationships between Ethereum transaction fees and economic subsystems.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
Cohort analysis speeds up Bitcoin blockchain data queries.
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
A new constructivist approach to modeling in economics and theory of consciousness is proposed. The state of elementary object is defined as a set of its measurable consumer properties. A proprietor's refusal or consent for the offered transaction is considered as a result of elementary economic measurement. We were al…
Cryptocurrencies use blockchain tech for secure transactions, offering new research opportunities.
This work introduces uncertainty principles to mitigate Maximal Extractable Value in blockchain systems.
Most people are risk-averse (risk-seeking) when they expect to gain (lose). Based on a generalization of ``expected utility theory'' which takes this into account, we introduce an automaton mimicking the dynamics of economic operations. Each operator is characterized by a parameter q which gauges people's attitude unde…
The algebra of transactions as fundamental measurements is constructed on the basis of the analysis of their properties and represents an expansion of the Boolean algebra. The notion of the generalized economic measurements of the economic quantity and quality of objects of transactions is introduced. It has been shown…
Study reveals centralization in Bitcoin transactions involving retail users.
Money flow models are essential tools to understand different economical phenomena, like saving propensities and wealth distributions. In spite of their importance, most of them are based on synthetic transaction networks with simple topologies, e.g. random or scale-free ones, as the characterisation of real networks i…
IntraLayer connects digital finance platforms efficiently.
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
A scalable method for econometric inference using machine learning for big data.
Dark blockchain venues increase miners' profits but raise users' execution risk.
New smart contract mechanisms evade traditional AML systems by decoupling transaction roles.
In this paper, based on theories of complex adaptive systems, I argue that the main case for antitrust policy should be extended to include the criteria of "evolvability." To date, the main case focuses on economizing, including market power as a key filter for identifying suspect cases. Both production and transaction…
GNN improves financial risk detection in dynamic networks.
In this paper we present an econophysic model for the description of shares transactions in a capital market. For introducing the fundamentals of this model we used an analogy between the electrical field produced by a system of charges and the overall of economic and financial information of the shares transactions fr…
How do we assign value to economic transactions? To answer this question, we must consider whether the value of objects is inherent, is a product of social interaction, or involves other mechanisms. Economic theory predicts that there is an optimal price for any market transaction, and can be observed during auctions o…
Study on supply chain networks using wire transfers in Brazil.
A new constructivist approach to modeling in economics and theory of consciousness is proposed. The state of elementary object is defined as a set of its measurable consumer properties. A proprietor's refusal or consent for the offered transaction is considered as a result of elementary economic measurement. Elementary…
We study the problem of option pricing and hedging strategies within the frame-work of risk-return arguments. An economic agent is described by a utility function that depends on profit (an expected value) and risk (a variance). In the ideal case without transaction costs the optimal strategy for any given agent is fou…
We study the effect of the social stratification on the wealth distribution on a system of interacting economic agents that are constrained to interact only within their own economic class. The economical mobility of the agents is related to its success in exchange transactions. Different wealth distributions are obtai…
In this paper are made some considerations of the application of phenomenological thermodynamics in risk analysis for the transaction on financial markets, using the concept of economic entropy and the macrostate parameter introduced by us in a previous works [15,16]. The investment risk diagrams for a number of Romani…
Study recovers investor preferences from portfolio data using synthetic data and robust optimization.
Second-order economic theory considers new variables to improve price volatility predictions.
FinML-Chain integrates blockchain data for financial machine learning.
Although classical economic theory is based on the concept of stable equilibrium, real economic systems appear to be always out of equilibrium. Indeed, they share many of the dynamical features of other complex systems, e.g., ecological food-webs. We focus on the relation between increasing complexity of the economic n…
We introduce an innovative theoretical framework to model derivative transactions between defaultable entities based on the principle of arbitrage freedom. Our framework extends the traditional formulations based on Credit and Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA and DVA). Depending on how the default contingency is accoun…
In this paper we attempt to introduce an econophysics approach to evaluate some aspects of the risks in financial markets. For this purpose, the thermodynamical methods and statistical physics results about entropy and equilibrium states in the physical systems are used. Some considerations on economic value and financ…
The aim of this work is to extend the capital growth theory developed by Kelly, Breiman, Cover and others to asset market models with transaction costs. We define a natural generalization of the notion of a numeraire portfolio proposed by Long and show how such portfolios can be used for constructing growth-optimal inv…
Game theory helps analyze ESOs/EBIs in production and service sectors.
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
This is an invited article for the Discussion and Debate special issue of The European Physical Journal Special Topics on the subject "Can Economics Be a Physical Science?" The first part of the paper traces the personal path of the author from theoretical physics to economics. It briefly summarizes applications of sta…
Study on-chain peak shaving to reduce Ethereum transaction costs.
This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that covers, in particular, the case of fixed plus proportional costs. We prove that…
A generalized continuous economic model is proposed for random markets. In this model, agents interact by pairs and exchange their money in a random way. A parameter controls the effectiveness of the transactions between the agents. We show in a rigorous way that this type of markets reach their asymptotic equilibrium …
We show that a steady-state stock-flow consistent macro-economic model can be represented as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP).The set of solutions is a polytope, which volume depends on the constraintsapplied and reveals the potential fragility of the economic circuit,with no need to study the dynamics. Several …
Machine learning models predict housing prices using macroeconomic factors.
Detailed empirical studies of publicly traded business firms have established that the standard deviation of annual sales growth rates decreases with increasing firm sales as a power law, and that the sales growth distribution is non-Gaussian with slowly decaying tails. To explain these empirical facts, a theory is dev…
We consider extensive data on Spanish international trades and population composition and, through statistical-mechanics and graph-theory driven analysis, we unveil that the social network made of native and foreign-born individuals plays a role in the evolution and in the diversification of trades. Indeed, migrants na…
Machine learning predicts Bitcoin returns but trading performance drops with costs.
We propose in this work a kinetic wealth-exchange model of economic growth by introducing saving as a non consumed fraction of production. In this new model, which starts also from microeconomic arguments, it is found that economic transactions between pairs of agents leads the system to a macroscopic behavior where to…
Stock price changes occur through transactions, just as diffusion in physical systems occurs through molecular collisions. We systematically explore this analogy and quantify the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions - and the price change , for a given stock, over …
Develops a framework to analyze financial structures.
Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, market dynamics clearly differ…
We briefly review statistical models for the probability distribution of money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between the agents in payment for goods and services. We focus on conceptual foundations for this …