In this article, we address the question of how non-knowledge about future events that influence economic agents' decisions in choice settings has been formally represented in economic theory up to date. To position our discussion within the ongoing debate on uncertainty, we provide a brief review of historical develop…
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48 results for “Economic Decision Theory”
Paper formalizes Simon's satisficing through FFSD, proving its equivalence to expected utility theory.
problem Formalizing Herbert Simon's bounded rationality concept in economic decision-making.
method Developed FFSD framework using Lean 4 theorem prover, proving equivalence to expected utility theory.
result Equivalence theorem linking FFSD to expected utility maximization for approximate indicator functions.
Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Combining DRO and DTA under ambiguity.
method Unified framework using DP and HDPs, with outlier robustness.
result Favorable performance in prediction accuracy and stability.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
problem Accuracy of economic theories and policies depend on economic variables and processes.
method Identify and analyze overlooked economic variables and processes.
result Many economic variables and processes not accounted for in current theories.
Quantum propensity in economicsq-fin.GN
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
problem Traditional economic models fail to explain recent financial crises.
method Develops a quantum probabilistic framework for economics.
result Quantum circuits can model cognitive phenomena like preference reversal.
We review two strands of conceptual approaches to the formal representation of a decision maker's non-knowledge at the initial stage of a static one-person, one-shot decision problem in economic theory. One focuses on representations of non-knowledge in terms of probability measures over sets of mutually exclusive and …
The article presents a translation of some widespread financial terminology into the language of decision theory. For instance, financial leverage can be regarded as an object of choice or a decision. We show how the optics of decision theory allows perceiving the recently introduced metrics of see-through-leverage, wh…
Tutorials on preference learning with Gaussian Processes.
problem Understanding individual preferences and choices for efficient and personalized applications.
method Presentation of a comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes, incorporating rationality principles.
result Construction of preference learning models that encompass various utility models and scenarios.
Formalizes vNM utility theorem using Lean 4, proving existence and uniqueness.
problem Formalizing and proving the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem.
method Implement classical axioms in Lean 4, formalizing preference relations over lotteries.
result Machine-verified proofs of existence and uniqueness of utility representations.
Reinforcement learning aids decision-making in economics and finance.
problem Optimal decision-making in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Reinforcement learning algorithms to learn optimal policies.
result Deep learning enhances solving complex behavioral problems.
A new constructivist approach to modeling in economics and theory of consciousness is proposed. The state of elementary object is defined as a set of its measurable consumer properties. A proprietor's refusal or consent for the offered transaction is considered as a result of elementary economic measurement. We were al…
Despite all our great advances in science, technology and financial innovations, many societies today are struggling with a financial, economic and public spending crisis, over-regulation, and mass unemployment, as well as lack of sustainability and innovation. Can we still rely on conventional economic thinking or do …
Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have develop…
Paper formalizes multi-dimensional FSD using geometric methods.
problem Complex measure theory and calculus barriers to formalization in proof assistants.
method Geometric framework for first-order stochastic dominance in N dimensions.
result Geometric approach bypasses complex integration theory for direct comparison of survival probabilities.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
Econophysics has developed as a research field that applies the formalism of Statistical Mechanics and Quantum Mechanics to address Economics and Finance problems. The branch of Econophysics that applies of Quantum Theory to Economics and Finance is called Quantum Econophysics. In Finance, Quantum Econophysics' contrib…
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behav…
Money as a Tensorq-fin.GN
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Isobenefit Lines can offer a certain range of applicability in Location Theory and Gravitational Models for Urban and Geography Economics, in positional decision processes made by citizens, and, last but not least, in land value and property market theories and analysis. The value of a land, or a property, in a generic…
Hybridizes genetic algorithms with PROMOTHEE for better economic activity localization decisions.
problem Making optimal location decisions for economic activities considering multiple criteria.
method Hybridization of genetic algorithms with PROMOTHEE method for multicriteria analysis.
result Improves decision-making for economic activity localization.
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.
This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms for the Choquet expected …
Sparse oblique decision tree improves security rules for renewable power systems.
problem Identifying secure operating conditions in power systems with high renewable energy.
method Sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn and embed linear security rules.
result The method significantly increases secure states and reduces solution time.
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
problem The effect of interest rates on financial decisions like investment, funding, and dividend.
method Correlation coefficient analysis and descriptive methods.
result Interest rates have a negatively insignificant effect on investment and funding decisions, but positively moderate effect on dividend decisions.
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
The applications of techniques from statistical (and classical) mechanics to model interesting problems in economics and finance has produced valuable results. The principal movement which has steered this research direction is known under the name of `econophysics'. In this paper, we illustrate and advance some of the…
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models…
Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying affluence like physical capital, the technical infrastructure for production, organize…
Symmetry and financial Marketsq-fin.GN
Symmetry in finance is a neglected but potentially valuable concept.
problem The underutilization of symmetry in financial markets.
method Examining symmetry in game theory, technical analysis, and long-term economic growth.
result Symmetry principles can be applied to financial strategies and market dynamics.
LemonadeBench evaluates LLMs' economic intuition through a simulated lemonade stand.
problem Evaluating LLMs' economic understanding and decision-making in simple markets.
method Simulated lemonade stand business to test LLMs' long-term planning and profit maximization.
result Models achieve profitability but exhibit local rather than global optimization.
Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on i…
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
problem Reducing household bankruptcy risk through effective financial planning.
method Mathematical modeling, game theory, behavioral finance, and technological analysis.
result The 1/3 Financial Rule emerges as a robust solution for supporting household financial stability.
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the business cycle phases in US and EuroZone.
method Three machine learning approaches were compared: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) achieved the best results.
result MLR achieved 65.25% accuracy for EuroZone and 75% for US in predicting business cycle phases.
This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics, from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility…
Elevating houses to flood risk increases uncertainty, leading to higher optimal elevations.
problem Deciding how high to elevate houses to manage riverine flood risks is complex due to uncertainties.
method Used a multi-objective robust decision-making framework to analyze uncertainties.
result Optimal house elevation can be significantly higher than FEMA's recommendation due to deep uncertainties.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
Second-order economic theory considers new variables to improve price volatility predictions.
problem Current economic models focus on first-order variables, missing second-order variables that affect price volatility.
method Introduces second-order economic theory with new variables composed of sums of squares of agents' transactions.
result Second-order economic theory complements first-order variables and introduces new macroeconomic variables.
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian…
The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-v…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, U…
Unified approach to aggregating models and preferences.
problem Consistent aggregation of models and preferences.
method Formal definition and weighted averaging of models and preferences.
result All rational aggregation rules are weighted averages of highest-ranked models/experts.
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, Itô diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting. This is done within a framework based on dynamic programming techniques employing var…
Mean Field Games applied to finance and economics.
problem Modeling large populations in financial and economic systems.
method Mean Field Game theory applied to specific financial and economic scenarios.
result New applications in bitcoin mining, energy markets, and macro-economics.
Artificial intelligence has impacted many aspects of human life. This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on economic theory. In particular we study the impact of artificial intelligence on the theory of bounded rationality, efficient market hypothesis and prospect theory.
The adoption of automated, data-driven decision making in an ever expanding range of applications has raised concerns about its potential unfairness towards certain social groups. In this context, a number of recent studies have focused on defining, detecting, and removing unfairness from data-driven decision systems. …
A widely applied diversification paradigm is the naive diversification choice heuristic. It stipulates that an economic agent allocates equal decision weights to given choice alternatives independent of their individual characteristics. This article provides mathematically and economically sound choice theoretic founda…