We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
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48 results for “Ecological inference”
Machine learning improves predicting species interactions based on traits.
problem Variability in empirical trait-matching studies for ecological networks.
method Compared conventional GLMs with ML models (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, etc.) on simulated and real data.
result ML models outperform GLMs in predicting species interactions and identifying trait-matching combinations.
Sparse Network Inference under Imperfect Detection and its Application to Ecological Networksstat.ML
Framework for inferring latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks.
problem Recovering latent structure from sparse, imperfectly detected bipartite networks in ecology.
method Structured sparse nonnegative low-rank factorization with detection probability estimation and ADMM-based algorithm.
result Improved recovery of latent factors and structure compared to existing methods.
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
problem Modeling voter preferences with aggregate data and individual covariates.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson binomial distribution, approximated with heteroscedastic Gaussian.
result Existence and curvature results for the MLE of the Poisson binomial likelihood.
Hybrid model improves forest growth predictions.
problem Misspecified assumptions in mechanistic models.
method Forest Informed Neural Networks (FINN) combining DVM and DNN.
result DNN learned improved growth process functional form.
Neural likelihood approximates integer time series data efficiently.
problem Inference of parameters for integer-valued stochastic processes is challenging.
method Constructs a neural likelihood approximation for inference of parameters from time series data.
result Accurately approximates the true posterior with significant computational speed-ups.
A review of ML and DL for ecological data analysis.
problem Understanding the strengths and limitations of ML and DL in ecological research.
method Historical overview, algorithm families, differences, universal principles, and emerging trends.
result ML and DL excel in prediction tasks but are still debated for causal inference.
Decodes neural activity to assess latent states in real-world driving tasks.
problem Understanding latent states during complex tasks in natural settings.
method Domain-generalized models trained on controlled lab paradigms applied to ecologically valid driving tasks.
result Changes in neural activity correlate with changes in behavior and task performance.
New machine learning algorithms inspired by ecological principles.
problem Improving machine learning performance.
method Inspired by ecological dynamics, developed new online SVM algorithms.
result New algorithms outperform traditional methods on the MNIST dataset.
The study examines how language models learn to represent the world, identifying conditions for ecological veridicality.
problem Understanding when language models learn to represent the world accurately and how this learning process can fail.
method Analyzes the Bayes-optimal next-token cross-entropy decomposition and the role of training ecology in shaping model representations.
result The minimum-complexity zero-excess solution is the quotient partition by training equivalence, and this solution is not preserved in in-context learning or per-task adaptation.
BayesFlow learns complex models using neural networks.
problem Estimating parameters in complex, non-likelihood models.
method Invertible neural networks for global Bayesian inference.
result Global probabilistic mapping from data to parameters.
Time Series Vector Autoregression Prediction of the Ecological Footprint based on Energy Parametersphysics.soc-ph
Paper predicts ecological footprint using energy parameters.
problem Forecasting the ecological footprint using energy parameters.
method Time series vector autoregression model.
result Predictions indicate increasing consumption and declining coal energy.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
Prediction-Powered Inferencestat.ML
Valid inference from data and predictions.
problem Valid statistical inference with machine learning predictions.
method Framework for valid inference using machine learning predictions.
result Valid confidence intervals without assumptions on predictions.
Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose …
TMLE improves IPM estimation for ecological population dynamics.
problem Estimating key demographic properties from IPM data.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for IPMs.
result Robust and efficient estimators for IPM properties.
Bayesian Learning of Conditional Kernel Mean Embeddings for Automatic Likelihood-Free Inferencestat.ML
In likelihood-free settings where likelihood evaluations are intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) addresses the formidable inference task to discover plausible parameters of simulation programs that explain the observations. However, they demand large quantities of simulation calls. Critically, hyperpara…
wBSL uses whitening transformations to speed up BSL for intractable likelihood models.
problem Computational demands of Bayesian synthetic likelihood with growing summary statistics.
method Whitening transformations to decorrelate summary statistics.
result Significant reduction in model simulations required for accurate inference.
Classification is an important supervised machine learning method, which is necessary and challenging issue for ecological research. It offers a way to classify a dataset into subsets that share common patterns. Notably, there are many classification algorithms to choose from, each making certain assumptions about the …
Ecological systems have a high level of complexity combined with stability and rich biodiversity. Recently, the analysis of their properties and evolution has been pushed forward on a basis of concept of mutualistic networks that provides a detailed understanding of their features being linked to a high nestedness of t…
StatEcoNet models species distribution using neural networks to correct observation errors.
problem Correcting observation errors in wildlife surveys for accurate species distribution modeling.
method StatEcoNet integrates a graphical generative model with neural networks to address SDM challenges.
result StatEcoNet outperforms traditional methods on simulated and real datasets.
The methods of statistical physics are widely used for modelling complex networks. Building on the recently proposed Equilibrium Expectation approach, we derive a simple and efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of parameters of exponential family distributions - a family of statistical models, th…
Simformer uses transformer models to perform flexible Bayesian inference.
problem Current simulation-based inference methods are inflexible and require fixed priors.
method Trains a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
A new testing method for random forests scales well for big data.
problem Efficiently assessing feature significance in random forests.
method Permutation-style testing approach, leveraging exchangeability arguments.
result The test maintains high power with significantly fewer computations.
Evology models US equity mutual funds interactions for investment strategies.
problem Understanding complex interactions in financial markets.
method Agent-based model (ABM) of US stock market participants and their strategies.
result Trading strategies interact with other market participants and conditions.
Modeling vessel speed to balance efficiency and environmental risks in Arctic shipping.
problem Balancing vessel speed with environmental and ecological risks in Arctic shipping.
method Inverse control constrained optimization framework with risk parameters estimated from AIS data.
result Distinct decision-making patterns across vessel types and navigational statuses, with varying sensitivity to ice and whale risks.
New algorithms cluster nodes in SBM graphs faster and more accurately.
problem Efficiently clustering nodes in graphs generated from SBM models.
method Inspired by Lloyd's algorithm, proposes model-free clustering methods for SBM graphs.
result Consistent estimation of node clusters and parameters in SBM graphs.
Study finds cryptocurrency market diversity patterns inconsistent with neutral models.
problem Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models.
method Analysis borrowing methods from ecology, focusing on diversity patterns and community structure.
result Cryptocurrency market diversity patterns not consistent with neutral models, suggesting strong interactions between species.
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
A new spin on optimal portfolios and ecological equilibriacond-mat.stat-mech
New insights into optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria reveal surprising complexity.
problem Optimal portfolio construction with ecological constraints.
method Computational analysis of multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations with unit rank interaction matrices.
result Logarithm of the average number of solutions grows as \(N^{2/3}\), with most likely solutions being much smaller.
Market inefficiencies arise from density-dependent returns in a noisy environment.
problem Market inefficiencies and excess volatility.
method Developed a market model using ecological concepts.
result Market dynamics are density-dependent, leading to inefficiencies.
Implicit probabilistic models are a flexible class of models defined by a simulation process for data. They form the basis for theories which encompass our understanding of the physical world. Despite this fundamental nature, the use of implicit models remains limited due to challenges in specifying complex latent stru…
The rise in online social networking has brought about a revolution in social relations. However, its effects on offline interactions and its implications for collective well-being are still not clear and are under-investigated. We study the ecology of online and offline interaction in an evolutionary game framework wh…
Improved particle Gibbs sampling by marginalizing parameters.
problem Bayesian inference in high-dimensional state-space models is challenging.
method Marginalized particle Gibbs sampling, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Marginalization improves performance beyond the Gibbs sampler, scaling linearly.
PySR method automates discovering equations from data in chaotic dynamics and epidemics.
problem Discovering equations from complex data in dynamical systems.
method Symbolic regression methods, focusing on PySR.
result PySR method efficiently infers equations from chaotic dynamics and epidemic models, matching original forms.
Earth observation embeddings can convert discrete biome maps into continuous representations that better capture ecological variation.
problem Biome maps impose categorical boundaries that compress continuous variation in biotic communities.
method Fit a linear classifier on Earth observation embeddings to predict biome labels.
result Continuous biome representation outperforms discrete biome labels for predicting species occurrence.
The paper uses a graph autoencoder to learn unbiased plant-pollinator interaction embeddings.
problem Sampling bias in citizen science data affects ecological network analysis.
method Bipartite graph variational autoencoder with HSIC for fairness.
result The method mitigates sampling bias and provides unbiased embeddings.
MAYA learns bee foraging decisions with limited memory.
problem Reproducing and predicting bees' foraging decisions with limited memory.
method Sequential imitation learning model based on multi-armed bandits, considering a temporal window τ of 7 trials.
result MAYA outperforms imitation baselines and classical models, providing interpretability and realistic trajectories.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
Study uses machine learning to predict predator-prey dynamics without prior knowledge.
problem Predicting predator-prey interactions without prior knowledge of the system.
method Applied Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) to the Lotka-Volterra model.
result UDEs outperform Neural ODEs in predicting predator-prey dynamics, especially in noisy data.
Principled model selection for stochastic dynamicscond-mat.soft
PASTIS selects minimal models from stochastic dynamics data.
problem Overfitting in model selection for stochastic dynamics.
method Combining likelihood-estimation statistics with extreme value theory.
result PASTIS reliably identifies minimal models, even with low sampling rates or error.
Improved forecasting of suicide attempts using LSGPs for patients with little data.
problem Challenges in predicting suicide attempts due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity.
method Introduced Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity.
result LSGPs outperform baseline models, even without kernel-design, and offer new insights into patient similarity.
SGNNs use simulations to train neural networks, improving scientific forecasting and interpretability.
problem Combining precise theory and machine learning for robust scientific modeling.
method Pretraining neural networks on diverse mechanistic simulations as training data.
result SGNNs outperform data-driven and physics-constrained models in forecasting and interpretability.
Develops methods for causal inference in compositional data using instrumental variables.
problem Interpreting summary statistics like diversity indices as causal effects in compositional data.
method Statistical data transformations and regression techniques tailored for compositional data.
result Advantages and limitations of the proposed methods demonstrated on synthetic and real microbiome data.
A policy compass indicates the direction in which an institution is going in terms of three general qualities. The three qualities are: suppression, harmony and passion. Any formal institution can develop a policy compass to examine the discrepancy between what the institution would like to do (suggested in its mandate…
Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicat…
Aspects of a phase transition in high-dimensional random geometrycond-mat.stat-mech
High-dimensional random geometry shows phase transitions in various problems.
problem Phase transitions in high-dimensional random geometry.
method Analysis of various financial, optimization, and ecological problems.
result Links between seemingly distant fields and further ramifications.
An important challenge for human-like AI is compositional semantics. Recent research has attempted to address this by using deep neural networks to learn vector space embeddings of sentences, which then serve as input to other tasks. We present a new dataset for one such task, `natural language inference' (NLI), that c…