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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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12.5%25.0%37.5%50.0% · May 199419922001200920172026
48 results for ERA5 temperature anomalies

Study evaluates DGMs' ability to recover non-stationary Gaussian fields.

problem Assessing DGMs' learning of non-stationary Gaussian random fields.
method Comprehensive evaluation of four DGMs (FM, DDPM, score-SDE, VAE) on a known non-stationary Gaussian random field.
result DDPM and score-SDE recover covariance structure reasonably well, while FM and VAE struggle.

Deep models struggle with non-stationary Gaussian fields, but DDPM and score-SDE perform best.

problem Evaluating deep generative models on non-stationary Gaussian random fields.
method Comprehensive evaluation of four DGMs (FM, DDPM, score-SDE, VAE) on a known non-stationary Gaussian random field.
result DDPM and score-SDE recover the covariance structure reasonably well, while FM and VAE have difficulties.

Deep learning model predicts European weather parameters.

problem Ensemble weather prediction using deep learning.
method Conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (GAN) and Monte-Carlo dropout.
result Forecast skill for geopotential height and two-meter temperature is good, but precipitation is challenging.

Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.

problem Lack of robust seasonal predictions due to limited historical records and computational constraints.
method Combines variational inference with transformer models trained on climate model output.
result Method provides skilful predictions beyond climate change-induced trends in various regions.

Deep learning improves combustor anomaly detection in gas turbines.

problem Improving anomaly detection performance in gas turbine combustors.
method Hierarchically learned features from exhaust gas temperature sensor measurements using deep learning.
result Deep learning-based anomaly detection significantly improved combustor anomaly detection performance.

Neural network predicts weather probabilities with added uncertainty.

problem Inferring uncertainty from weather predictions.
method Data-driven neural network trained on WeatherBench dataset, combining outputs from subsets of variables.
result More accurate than some numerical models, provides probabilistic information.

New method reconstructs past foehn occurrences using unsupervised and supervised learning.

problem Reconstructing past foehn occurrences due to lack of direct measurement.
method Combining unsupervised and supervised learning methods to infer foehn occurrences from reanalysis data.
result Accurate hourly reconstructions of past foehn occurrences for 83 years.

An encoder-decoder model detects anomalies in manufacturing data.

problem Detecting and predicting anomalies in sequential sensor data.
method Encoder-decoder architecture for unsupervised anomaly detection.
result The model identifies anomalies and predicts future states in manufacturing processes.

EagleEye detects localized density anomalies in multivariate data.

problem Identifying signal events, regime changes, or model mismatch in scientific data.
method EagleEye pinpoints local over- and under-densities by assigning anomaly scores based on binary membership sequences and binomial null models.
result EagleEye can detect genuine local anomalies and estimate background purity.

The coefficient of the logarithmic term in the entropy on even spheres is re-computed by the local technique of integrating the finite temperature energy density up to the horizon on static d--dimensional de Sitter space and thence finding the entropy by thermodynamics. Numeric evaluation yields the known answer i.e. (…

2010-09-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning predicts Atlantic blocking using limited data.

problem Underestimation of blocking event duration in climate models.
method Transfer Learning and Explainable AI (SHAP analysis)
result High-pressure anomalies in specific regions contribute to blocking events.

WeatherBench provides a dataset and metrics for comparing data-driven weather forecasts.

problem Lack of a common dataset and evaluation metrics for data-driven weather forecasting.
method Publicly available dataset derived from ERA5, simple evaluation metrics.
result Baseline scores from various forecasting methods provided for comparison.

Study improves accuracy of weather data for real-time building simulations.

problem Anomalous and missing weather data affect real-time building energy simulations.
method Introduces a framework for quality control of measured weather data using anomaly detection and neural network infilling.
result Neural Networks enhance the accuracy of data imputation compared to traditional methods.

We consider the problem of signal recovery on graphs as graphs model data with complex structure as signals on a graph. Graph signal recovery implies recovery of one or multiple smooth graph signals from noisy, corrupted, or incomplete measurements. We propose a graph signal model and formulate signal recovery as a cor…

2014-11-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.

problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.

A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.

problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.

New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.

problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.

This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.

problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.

Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.

problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …

2018-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework reconstructs missing spatio-temporal data for extreme value prediction.

problem Predicting extreme values from incomplete spatio-temporal data.
method Convolutional deep neural networks and autoencoder-like models for conditional sampling.
result Framework produces accurate reconstructions of missing data for extremal values.

The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.

problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.

The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.

problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.

Embeds spherically symmetric space-times into 5D flat space, matching Hawking temperature.

problem Finding conditions for embedding spherically symmetric space-times into flat 5D space.
method Explicitly constructs embeddings for any spherically symmetric Lorentzian metric in 3+1 dimensions.
result Hawking temperature matches Unruh temperature for Schwarzschild metric.

The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.

problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.

We propose a novel method to forecast the future from the present using time-reversed data.

problem Forecasting the future from past data, exploiting temporal asymmetry.
method Retrodictive forecasting via inverse MAP optimization over a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method successfully predicts future events in time-reversible and irreversible processes.

Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.

problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.

New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.

problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around kBTc/J2.269k_B T_c / J \approx 2.269.

Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.

problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at βlognβ\leq \sqrt{\log n}.

Study shows sample complexity for logistic regression with normal covariates.

problem Estimating parameters of logistic regression with normal design.
method Analyzes sample complexity in terms of dimension and inverse temperature.
result Shows two change-points in sample complexity curve based on inverse temperature.

The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility σ σ measure…

2006-09-23abs ↗pdf ↗

In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…

2012-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…

2012-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves anomaly detection with contaminated unlabeled data.

problem Weakness in existing semi-supervised anomaly detection methods when unlabeled data contain anomalies.
method Integrates positive-unlabeled learning with deep anomaly detection models.
result Achieves better detection performance on various datasets.

Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.

problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.