Exact inference in the linear regression model with spike and slab priors is often intractable. Expectation propagation (EP) can be used for approximate inference. However, the regular sequential form of EP (R-EP) may fail to converge in this model when the size of the training set is very small. As an alternative, we …
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “EPS”
We consider the optimal stopping problem $v^{(\eps)}:=\sup_{τ\in\mathcal{T}_{0,T}}\mathbb{E}B_{(τ-\eps)^+}$ posed by Shiryaev at the International Conference on Advanced Stochastic Optimization Problems organized by the Steklov Institute of Mathematics in September 2012. Here is a fixed time horizon, $(B_t)_{0\le…
Deep Q-Exponential Processesstat.ML
Deep Q-EP improves image modeling by stacking Q-EP layers.
problem Inhomogeneous subjects like images with edges are poorly modeled by standard Gaussian processes.
method Introducing shallow Q-EP as a latent variable model, stacking multiple layers, and applying sparse approximation and scalable variational strategy.
result Deep Q-EP outperforms state-of-the-art deep probabilistic models in image modeling.
EP algorithm improved for CNNs and real-time learning.
problem EP's long simulation times and non-local learning rule limitations.
method Discrete-time formulation, continual weight updates, local time information.
result C-EP achieves best performance on MNIST with CNNs.
Study finds optimal board gender diversity for emissions performance.
problem Association between board gender diversity and emissions performance.
method Panel regressions, machine learning, explainable AI.
result Optimal board gender diversity for emissions performance is approximately 35%.
Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local approximations that are iteratively refined for each datapoint. EP can offer analytic and comp…
Given an arbitrary d>0 we construct a group G and a group ring element S in Z[G] such that the spectral measure mu of S has the property that mu((0,eps)) > C/|log(eps)|^(1+d) for small eps. In particular the Novikov-Shubin invariant of any such S is 0. The constructed examples show that the best known upper bounds on m…
Updates of Equilibrium Prop Match Gradients of Backprop Through Time in an RNN with Static Inputcs.LG
Equilibrium Propagation (EP) is a biologically inspired learning algorithm for convergent recurrent neural networks, i.e. RNNs that are fed by a static input x and settle to a steady state. Training convergent RNNs consists in adjusting the weights until the steady state of output neurons coincides with a target y. Con…
EP learns like BPTT but with local weight updates.
problem Existing EP lacks a local time learning rule.
method C-EP updates weights simultaneously with neuron dynamics.
result C-EP follows BPTT gradients and performs well.
DP-SEP privatizes EP by refining a single factor per data point.
problem Private inference of complex models with limited memory.
method Stochastic Expectation Propagation with differential privacy.
result DP-SEP provides better posterior estimates with guaranteed privacy.
This paper considers the robust and efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression with a Student-t observation model. The challenge with the Student-t model is the analytically intractable inference which is why several approximative methods have been proposed. The expectation propagation (EP) has been found …
EP-learning framework improves causal contrast estimation efficiency.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal contrasts efficiently and stably.
method EP-learning framework combining T-learning and DR-learning.
result EP-learners are oracle-efficient and outperform competitors.
Uncertainty relations and fluctuation theorems for Bayes netscond-mat.stat-mech
Derives fluctuation theorems and thermodynamic uncertainty relations for systems modeled as Bayes nets.
problem Entropy production in interacting systems modeled as Bayes nets.
method Derives fluctuation theorems and thermodynamic uncertainty relations for arbitrary sets and conditioned sets of systems in Bayes nets.
result Relates the entropy production of the overall system to the precisions of probability currents in individual systems.
Two EP frameworks ensure integrable beliefs in Bayesian estimation problems.
problem Non-integrable beliefs in EP can lead to infeasible solutions.
method Proposes two EP frameworks to keep messages non-integrable.
result Ensures integrable beliefs in EP, even with non-integrable messages.
While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate integration method for this problem. For rectangular integration regions, the approx…
Bayesian learning is often hampered by large computational expense. As a powerful generalization of popular belief propagation, expectation propagation (EP) efficiently approximates the exact Bayesian computation. Nevertheless, EP can be sensitive to outliers and suffer from divergence for difficult cases. To address t…
We prove an abstract criterion stating resolvent convergence in the case of operators acting in different Hilbert spaces. This result is then applied to the case of Laplacians on a family $X_\eps$ of branched quantum waveguides. Combining it with an exterior complex scaling we show, in particular, that the resonances o…
QP improves Gaussian process inference by minimizing Wasserstein distance.
problem Approximate inference in Gaussian processes using KL divergence is inadequate.
method Quantile Propagation (QP) minimizes Wasserstein distance instead of KL divergence.
result QP outperforms EP and variational Bayes in classification and Poisson regression.
Bayesian inference is a popular method to build learning algorithms but it is hampered by the fact that its key object, the posterior probability distribution, is often uncomputable. Expectation Propagation (EP) (Minka (2001)) is a popular algorithm that solves this issue by computing a parametric approximation (e.g: G…
We introduce and study a new class of $\eps$-convex bodies (extending the class of convex bodies) in metric and normed linear spaces. We analyze relations between characteristic properties of convex bodies, demonstrate how $\eps$-convex bodies connect with some classical results of Convex Geometry, as Helly theorem, an…
We consider probabilistic multinomial probit classification using Gaussian process (GP) priors. The challenges with the multiclass GP classification are the integration over the non-Gaussian posterior distribution, and the increase of the number of unknown latent variables as the number of target classes grows. Expecta…
In this paper we propose a novel framework for the construction of sparsity-inducing priors. In particular, we define such priors as a mixture of exponential power distributions with a generalized inverse Gaussian density (EP-GIG). EP-GIG is a variant of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and the special cases inclu…
New EP variants improve inference stability and efficiency.
problem Inference stability and efficiency issues in EP.
method Motivated by natural-gradient optimization, new EP variants are introduced that are robust to Monte Carlo noise and efficient with single samples.
result Improved stability and efficiency in inference tasks.
Efficient expectation propagation for posterior approximation in high-dimensional probit modelsstat.CO
EP method speeds up Bayesian probit regression in high dimensions.
problem Computational challenges in high-dimensional Bayesian probit regression.
method Adapting EP approximation to multivariate Gaussian prior and skew-normal distribution.
result EP routine is computationally feasible in high-dimensional settings.
Equity Protection Swaps: A New Type of Investment Insurance for Holders of Superannuation Accountsq-fin.PR
New EPS insurance offers partial protection against superannuation losses.
problem Lack of efficient investment insurance for superannuation holders.
method Developed a new financial derivative, equity protection swap (EPS), and derived a fair pricing formula.
result EPS can be an efficient investment insurance tool for superannuation accounts.
A method for large scale Gaussian process classification has been recently proposed based on expectation propagation (EP). Such a method allows Gaussian process classifiers to be trained on very large datasets that were out of the reach of previous deployments of EP and has been shown to be competitive with related tec…
Let , , be a compact simply-connected Riemannian manifold with nonnegative isotropic curvature. Given , we prove that there exists $\eps = \eps (l,L,n)$ satisfying the following: If the scalar curvature of satisfies and the Einstein tensor satisfies $$ | Ric - \fr…
The paper examines how share buybacks impact a company's earnings per share.
problem The trade-off between reducing share count and decreasing net earnings due to share buybacks.
method Review of accretive share repurchases, analysis of EPS increase as a function of price paid, and quantification of earnings growth difference.
result Share buybacks can enhance EPS, but the net effect on earnings growth is mixed.
EP-GFlowNets parallelize GFlowNet training for large-scale Bayesian inference.
problem Prohibitive repeated evaluations of unnormalized distributions for large-scale posterior sampling.
method Divide-and-conquer approach with server learning from local models.
result EP-GFlowNets enable efficient parallel and federated Bayesian inference.
Efficient EP algorithm improves smoothing distribution inference in financial models.
problem Computational intractability of smoothing distribution in high dimensions.
method Adapted expectation propagation (EP) algorithms for the unified skew-normal family.
result Accuracy gains in financial illustrations over existing approximate algorithms.
Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact but intractable correcti…
The paper values and hedges EPS products with jumps and default risks.
problem Valuation and risk management of EPS products under financial crises and default risks.
method Developed pricing frameworks using jump-diffusion and default models, derived closed-form formulas, and analysed hedging strategies.
result Quantified residual losses from counterparty default risk and defined default-adjusted premiums.
Learning entropy production via neural networkscond-mat.stat-mech
A neural network method estimates entropy production from system trajectories.
problem Estimating entropy production from system trajectories without detailed dynamics.
method Developed a neural estimator (NEEP) for entropy production (EP).
result NEEP rigorously proves to provide stochastic EP by optimizing an objective function.
Online learning is a powerful tool for analyzing iterative algorithms. However, the classic adversarial setup sometimes fails to capture certain regularity in online problems in practice. Motivated by this, we establish a new setup, called Continuous Online Learning (COL), where the gradient of online loss function cha…
Improved machine learning method estimates entropy production robustly.
problem Estimating entropy production from trajectory data.
method Variational representation of -divergence loss functions.
result Optimal yields best performance.
This paper examines pricing and hedging strategies for cross-currency equity protection swaps.
problem Dynamic requirements from EPS buyers in cross-currency equity protection swaps.
method Detailed analysis of two hedging paradigms, including separate and aggregated returns, with consideration of different types of returns.
result Proposes various hedging strategies with practical implications for EPS providers and investors.
We propose a novel algorithm to solve the expectation propagation relaxation of Bayesian inference for continuous-variable graphical models. In contrast to most previous algorithms, our method is provably convergent. By marrying convergent EP ideas from (Opper&Winther 05) with covariance decoupling techniques (Wipf&Nag…
The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and r…
Combines VI and EP for better Gaussian process hyperparameter learning.
problem Improving hyperparameter learning in Gaussian processes for better performance.
method Hybrid training procedure combining Variational Inference (VI) for posterior inference and Expectation Propagation (EP) for hyperparameter learning.
result The hybrid training procedure provides a better learning objective and generalizes better than using only VI or EP.
State Space Expectation Propagation: Efficient Inference Schemes for Temporal Gaussian Processesstat.ML
Unified framework for efficient Gaussian process inference.
problem Efficient inference in non-conjugate Gaussian process models.
method Combines expectation propagation with linearization for improved efficiency.
result Unified view of various inference schemes, including classical smoothers and EP.
We give a highly efficient "semi-agnostic" algorithm for learning univariate probability distributions that are well approximated by piecewise polynomial density functions. Let be an arbitrary distribution over an interval which is -close (in total variation distance) to an unknown probability distribution $…
This paper proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearisation (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearisation of the conditional mean of the labels and accounting for the linearisation error. PL has s…
Improves hyperparameter learning in GP models with non-conjugate likelihoods.
problem Hyperparameter learning entangled with approximate inference in GP models.
method Hybrid training procedure combining VI for inference and EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning.
result Empirically demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed training procedure across various data sets.
Paper proposes a new MIMO detection algorithm using Gaussian Mixture Expectation Propagation.
problem Challenges in MIMO detection due to interference and noise in high-order high-dimensional systems.
method The approach uses a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) approximation for Belief Propagation (BP) and Expectation Propagation (EP) messages to improve detection accuracy.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art detection algorithms while maintaining low computational complexity.
Exponential family distributions are highly useful in machine learning since their calculation can be performed efficiently through natural parameters. The exponential family has recently been extended to the t-exponential family, which contains Student-t distributions as family members and thus allows us to handle noi…
Improved sparse Gaussian processes using structured scaling matrices and Power-EP framework.
problem Scaling Gaussian processes for large datasets.
method Structured diagonal scaling matrix and Power-EP framework.
result Structured approximations improve performance without increasing computational cost.
EP algorithm for efficient feature selection in binary classification.
problem Sparse feature selection in binary classification.
method Statistical mechanics inspired expectation propagation (EP) on a diluted Bayesian classifier.
result EP is a robust and competitive algorithm in terms of variable selection, estimation accuracy, and computational complexity.
In distributed learning, the goal is to perform a learning task over data distributed across multiple nodes with minimal (expensive) communication. Prior work (Daume III et al., 2012) proposes a general model that bounds the communication required for learning classifiers while allowing for $\eps$ training error on lin…