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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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177355532709 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Dynamic prediction

POSL predicts dynamic convection volumes in hemodiafiltration patients.

problem Continuous, personalised predictions in personalised medicine.
method Adapted POSL to dynamically predict convection volumes using combinations of parametric regressions and machine learning.
result POSL outperformed candidate learners in predicting convection volumes with lower errors and better calibration.

Model learns Lagrangian dynamics from images for better prediction and control.

problem Lack of interpretability and applicability to high-dimensional data like images.
method Unsupervised neural network model that learns Lagrangian dynamics from images using a coordinate-aware VAE.
result Model infers interpretable Lagrangian dynamics, enabling long-term prediction and synthesis of controllers.

DArtNet predicts time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.

problem Predicting time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
method DArtNet learns static and dynamic embeddings for graph nodes and encodes history information using RNN for joint link and attribute prediction.
result Improved time series prediction accuracy on five datasets.

We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past…

2016-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Super Learner combines dynamic predictions from various models to improve survival estimates.

problem Challenges in obtaining optimal survival estimates for liver failure risk.
method Super Learner framework combining machine learning and statistical procedures.
result Super Learner outperformed individual models in primary biliary cholangitis application.

Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.

problem Predicting system behavior with unknown parameters from time series data.
method Reservoir computing framework for unsupervised extraction of slowly varying system parameters.
result Model predicts unknown bifurcations not present in training data.

Bayesian neural networks improve cancer dynamics prediction.

problem Predicting cancer dynamics under treatment due to heterogeneity and sparse data.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model using baseline covariates and Bayesian neural networks for nonlinear interactions.
result Bayesian neural networks outperform linear models in predicting cancer dynamics with interactions.

Neural networks improve predictions of complex network dynamics.

problem Improving neural network predictions for complex network dynamics.
method Extended neural network models to complex systems, ensuring they conform to dynamical model assumptions and using a statistical significance test.
result Achieved advanced generalization of neural network predictions for complex systems.

MDGNN predicts stock prices by capturing multifaceted relations over time.

problem Challenges in predicting stock prices due to dynamic and intricate relations.
method MDGNN uses a discrete dynamic graph and Transformer structure to capture multifaceted relations and temporal evolution.
result MDGNN achieves the best performance in public datasets compared to SOTA methods.

Study improves dynamic PT fleet optimization under noisy demand predictions.

problem Accurately predicting dynamic public transport demand for effective fleet management.
method Experimental case study in Copenhagen, using linear programming to optimize fleets.
result Optimized fleet performance is mainly affected by noise distribution skew and large errors.

DGRCL integrates dynamic and static graph relations for financial market prediction.

problem Capturing the evolving nature of stock markets while considering both temporal changes and static relational structures.
method Dynamic Graph Representation with Contrastive Learning (DGRCL) framework, including Embedding Enhancement (EE) and Contrastive Constrained Training (CCT) modules.
result DGRCL significantly outperforms state-of-the-art TGL baselines on NASDAQ and NYSE datasets.

Study risk-controlling prediction sets for single trajectory data from dynamical systems.

problem Performance guarantees for risk-controlling prediction sets in single trajectory data from unknown stochastic dynamical systems.
method Used blocking and decoupling techniques to analyze performance guarantees under different data generating processes.
result Performance guarantees similar to iid setting when data is stationary and contractive, with graceful degradation otherwise.

Extremely accurate prediction of dynamical system bifurcations using control inputs.

problem Predicting complex bifurcation structures in dynamical systems.
method Extending extreme learning machines with control inputs to model system dynamics.
result The model can nearly reproduce the entire structure of bifurcations using only a few parameter values.

Study on fluctuations in neural network kernels and predictions, focusing on finite width effects.

problem Characterizing fluctuations in finite width neural networks.
method Dynamical mean field theory analysis of wide but finite feature learning neural networks.
result Fluctuations in kernels and predictions are dynamically coupled, leading to reduced variance in feature learning regimes.

Enhanced AI analysis predicts S&P 500 stock dynamics using various financial metrics.

problem Predicting S&P 500 stock performance with complex interplay of factors.
method Advanced financial metrics, machine learning, and integration of traditional and modern analytics.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy in market behavior and investment strategies.

Universal online optimization for dynamic environments using uniclass prediction.

problem Online optimization in changing environments with dynamic regret.
method Reduces dynamic online optimization to uniclass prediction problem, allowing control over dynamic regret bounds.
result First paper with state-of-the-art dynamic regret guarantees for general convex cost functions.

Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.

problem Uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems using trajectory-oriented approaches.
method D2D neural probabilistic forecasting framework using kernel mean embeddings and mixture density networks.
result The D2D model captures distributional evolution in chaotic systems and produces skillful probabilistic forecasts.

Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.

problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.

Proposes a dynamic model for urban traffic volume prediction.

problem Urban traffic volume prediction for better traffic management and driver planning.
method Combines bidirectional LSTM, attention mechanism, and external features.
result Improves prediction precision by 3-7 percent on NYC-Taxi and NYC-Bike datasets.

COLoKe adapts Koopman embeddings online, reducing overfitting and improving long-term predictions.

problem Online adaptation of Koopman embeddings to avoid overfitting and maintain long-term predictive accuracy.
method Combines deep feature learning with multistep prediction consistency in a lifted space, using a conformal-style mechanism for selective updates.
result Empirically effective in reducing overfitting and maintaining long-term predictive accuracy.

Study on learning to predict dynamical systems without assuming their structure.

problem Learning to predict the next state of a dynamical system with unknown evolution function.
method Defined new combinatorial measures to quantify mistake and regret bounds in realizable and agnostic settings.
result In the realizable setting, the number of mistakes can grow arbitrarily with time.

New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.

problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.

We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model and predict such kind of marked temporal dynamics, i.e., when the next event wil…

2017-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

ConfEviSurrogate improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in surrogate models hinders reliable analysis.
method Introduces ConfEviSurrogate, a novel model that learns evidential distributions, separates uncertainty sources, and provides reliable prediction intervals.
result Demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in various simulations.

Proposes a framework to predict stock movements by integrating multi-order and internal dynamics.

problem Predicting stock movements with multi-order and internal dynamics.
method Temporal generative filters and hypergraph attentions using wavelet basis.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of profit and stability.

Dynamic risk factor model improves portfolio performance in high dimensions.

problem Dynamic portfolio allocation in high-dimensional financial markets.
method Time-varying sparsity on factor loadings, sequential learning of parameters and volatilities.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements and higher utility gains.

Proposes a neural network for dynamic risk prediction of AMD using longitudinal fundus images.

problem Dynamic risk prediction for progressive eye disorders like AMD.
method tdCoxSNN, a time-dependent Cox survival neural network integrating CNN.
result Demonstrates commendable predictive performance in AMD and PBC datasets.

NDS learns dynamical models with prior knowledge, improving accuracy and efficiency.

problem Learning accurate dynamical models with limited data and varying dynamics.
method Neural Dynamical Systems (NDS) integrates prior knowledge in ODEs with neural networks to estimate parameters and predict states.
result NDS achieves higher accuracy and uses fewer samples compared to other methods.

DyHATR learns dynamic heterogeneous networks for better link prediction.

problem Learning effective representations of dynamic heterogeneous networks for link prediction.
method Hierarchical attention for heterogeneous information and temporal RNN for evolutionary patterns.
result DyHATR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on link prediction tasks.

Dynamic linear models improve travel time prediction for congested freeways.

problem Accurate travel time prediction for congested freeways.
method Dynamic linear models (DLMs) with time-varying parameters.
result Significant improvements in travel time prediction accuracy, especially for short-term predictions.

This paper proposes a geometry-aware active learning framework for spatiotemporal dynamic systems.

problem Challenges in modeling complex dynamic systems with 3D geometries and time evolution.
method Geometry-aware spatiotemporal Gaussian Process (G-ST-GP) and adaptive active learning strategy.
result The proposed framework outperforms traditional methods in predicting high-dimensional dynamic behaviors.