New models capture dynamic derivatives pricing with efficient simulations.
problem Capturing dynamic features of derivatives' term structures.
method Machine learning techniques to store and efficiently simulate complex drift terms.
result First efficient dynamic term structure models.
We develop theory and applications of forward characteristic processes in discrete time following a seminal paper of Jan Kallsen and Paul Krühner. Particular emphasis is placed on the dynamics of volatility surfaces which can be easily formulated and implemented from the chosen discrete point of view. In mathematical t…
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
problem Modeling interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
method HJM model with Markov-chain modulated forward rates, proving affine structure for term structure.
result Explicit solutions for forward curves in many cases.
Paper uses VAEs to model yield curves without arbitrage violations.
problem Forecasting yield curves across diverse macroeconomic regimes leads to arbitrage violations.
method Proposes a two-stage architecture with CVAEsT+LS and Neural SDEs penalized by No-Arbitrage PDE.
result Significantly reduces forecasting errors and overcomes HJM model limitations.
We develop a new DTSM with nonlinearities using Gaussian Processes for better interest rate forecasting.
problem Linear DTSMs fail to capture nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic variables and interest rates.
method We propose a Gaussian Process-based sequential Monte Carlo estimation and forecasting scheme.
result Nonlinear models outperform linear ones in forecasting core inflation, leading to significant economic value gains.
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
Investment strategies derived from commodity futures curves exploit dynamics in price movements.
problem Modeling and predicting the term structure of commodity futures prices.
method Employed the Nelson-Siegel framework to model term structure, and developed investment strategies based on changes in slope and curvature parameters.
result Significant profits generated from systematic strategies based on the change in slope, unrelated to risk factors and robust to transaction costs.
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of the short rate, the long rate and the fluctuations of the curve around its avera…
Many different classification tasks need to manage structured data, which are usually modeled as graphs. Moreover, these graphs can be dynamic, meaning that the vertices/edges of each graph may change during time. Our goal is to jointly exploit structured data and temporal information through the use of a neural networ…
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt.…
A method of simultaneously optimizing both the structure of neural networks and the connection weights in a single training loop can reduce the enormous computational cost of neural architecture search. We focus on the probabilistic model-based dynamic neural network structure optimization that considers the probabilit…
Model for dynamic relational data with regime changes.
problem Handling abrupt changes in dynamic relational data.
method Factorized fusion shrinkage model with global-local shrinkage priors.
result Posterior distribution attains minimax optimal rate up to logarithmic factors.
Enhances learning of structured distributions using nonlinear denoising score matching.
problem Learning structured distributions from noisy data.
method Latent Nonlinear Denoising Score Matching (LNDSM) integrating nonlinear dynamics with VAE-based latent score matching.
result LNDSM achieves superior sample quality and variability compared to structure-agnostic methods.
Study analyzes bond price covariation robustly under no-arbitrage conditions.
problem Identifying the number of statistically relevant factors in the bond market.
method Nonparametric analysis of realized covariations in a general no-arbitrage setting.
result A high number of factors is needed to describe term structure evolution and term structure of volatility varies over time.
Recurrent-DBN models dynamic relational data with interpretable latent structures.
problem Interpreting dynamic relational data with hidden structures.
method Recurrent Dirichlet Belief Network framework with hierarchical latent structures and efficient inference strategy.
result Recurrent-DBN discovers interpretable latent structures and improves link prediction.
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
problem How banks' future default worries cause immediate financial stress.
method Dynamic interbank model with endogenous distress contagion, mark-to-market valuation adjustment, forward-backward approach.
result Distress contagion acts as a stochastic volatility term leading to clustering and down-market spikes.
The behaviour of many real-world phenomena can be modelled by nonlinear dynamical systems whereby a latent system state is observed through a filter. We are interested in interacting subsystems of this form, which we model by a set of coupled maps as a synchronous update graph dynamical systems. Specifically, we study …
VB approach for dynamic network models improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Estimating dynamic network models in large-scale systems.
method Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression.
result VB approach detects proper active structures and achieves similar or better accuracy.
In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian motion. The G-Brownian motion represents the uncertainty about the volatility. With…
Model forecasts market structure from financial networks using machine learning.
problem Predicting market correlation structure from financial networks.
method Dynamic Asset Graph (DAG), Dynamic Minimal Spanning Tree (DMST), Dynamic Threshold Networks (DTN).
result Model improves market structure forecasting by up to 40% over benchmarks.
The study constructs models for SOFR term rates using futures data.
problem Disruption of the LIBOR market and lack of liquid SOFR derivatives.
method Dynamic arbitrage-free models using historical SOFR futures prices.
result Shadow-rate extension needed for zero-boundary term rates.
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates. Moreover, the diffusion term in the rate dynamics goes to zero when short rates are sma…
The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested …
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
problem Empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP).
method Modeling risk premium using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process embedded in stochastic differential equation for exchange rate.
result The model shows strong predictive performance at short and long horizons, but underperforms at intermediate horizons.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.
LAD detects anomalies in dynamic graphs using Laplacian matrix.
problem Anomaly detection in temporal graphs for real-world applications.
method LAD uses the spectrum of the Laplacian matrix to model graph snapshots and temporal dependencies.
result LAD outperforms state-of-the-art methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Physics-guided model improves deep learning for nonlinear systems.
problem Intractable inference of nonlinear dynamical systems from data.
method Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM) using neural networks.
result Improved performance on nonlinear systems with structured latent space.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
problem Updating interest rate models for SOFR, which is becoming a key benchmark.
method Calibrates a model to SOFR and EFFR futures prices, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
result The model reflects key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and reconciles diffusive and piecewise paths.
The paper presents new formulations of gauge and gravity theories using dynamical principal bundles.
problem Formulating gauge and gravity theories with a flexible principal bundle structure.
method Original variational formulations of Yang-Mills, Einstein's gravitation, and Kaluza-Klein theories with a dynamical principal bundle.
result The principal bundle structure and connection emerge from the dynamics, leading to solutions of Yang-Mills, Einstein-Cartan, or Yang-Mills-Einstein equations.
Latent dynamics discovery is challenging in extracting complex dynamics from high-dimensional noisy neural data. Many dimensionality reduction methods have been widely adopted to extract low-dimensional, smooth and time-evolving latent trajectories. However, simple state transition structures, linear embedding assumpti…
Proposes a new framework for discount models.
problem Arbitrage-free dynamic framework for discount models.
method Derives general consistency conditions for factor models.
result Alternative to Heath--Jarrow--Morton framework for forward rates.
Noise-robust Koopman operator framework for control with improved stability and performance.
problem Developing a stable and noise-robust Koopman operator for control tasks.
method Proposes a learning framework using Hankel matrix and neural network approximations for system dynamics, ensuring long-term stability and noise robustness.
result Demonstrates improved model performance and noise robustness in control tasks compared to existing methods.
Learning workable representations of dynamical systems is becoming an increasingly important problem in a number of application areas. By leveraging recent work connecting deep neural networks to systems of differential equations, we propose \emph{variational integrator networks}, a class of neural network architecture…
Study uses machine learning to predict nonlinear seismic brace behavior.
problem Predicting nonlinear seismic response of structural braces.
method State-of-the-art machine learning techniques, specifically LSTM, were used.
result LSTM method effectively captures nonlinear brace behavior.
The paper shows that energy futures yield curves have an affine geometry.
problem Estimating dynamic behavior of yield curves from data while avoiding arbitrage.
method Finite dimensional models for yield curves, diffusion coefficients, and compatibility conditions.
result The compatibility of yield curves with diffusion coefficients forces an affine geometry.
Quantizes contact structures using dynamical methods.
problem Quantizing contact structures in a flat connection.
method Constructs a dynamical quantization using a flat connection on a Hilbert tractor bundle.
result Determines a contact tractor connection whose parallel sections determine a distinguished choice of Reeb dynamics.
We introduce the notion of a symplectic Lie affgebroid and their Lagrangian submanifolds in order to describe the Lagrangian (Hamiltonian) dynamics on a Lie affgebroid in terms of this type of structures. Several examples are discussed.
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of c…
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and an integer-valued random measure, generalizing existing approaches in the litera…
PGNs dynamically infer and use graph structures to improve model generalization.
problem Static graph structures inferred by machine learning practitioners are often suboptimal for tasks.
method PGNs augment graphs with dynamically inferred pointers for improved model generalization.
result PGNs outperform unrestricted GNNs and Deep Sets on dynamic graph connectivity tasks.
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
Study SGD dynamics in sequence models, revealing training phases and influence of sequence length.
problem Understanding SGD in sequence models like attention networks.
method Derived closed-form population loss and analyzed SGD dynamics for SSI models.
result Two distinct training phases: escape from uninformative initialization and alignment with target subspace.
We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to…
The paper stabilizes PD term structures under forecast uncertainty using a Kalman filter with an anchored observation model.
problem Stable estimation of lifetime PDs under forecast uncertainty.
method Reformulated in state-space framework, introduced an anchored observation model.
result Asymptotic stochastic stability of error dynamics, leading to smoother projections.
Paper develops a new fluid flow model with energy exchange through boundaries.
problem Modeling ideal fluid flow with energy exchange through boundaries.
method Port-Hamiltonian model based on Stokes-Dirac structures.
result Wide range of fluid dynamical systems can be achieved with this model.
Quantum walk model captures asymmetry and bimodality in long-term financial returns.
problem Inadequate classical models for long-term financial return distributions.
method Discrete-time quantum walk model.
result Captures bimodal and asymmetric probability distributions.
Model learns Lagrangian dynamics from images for better prediction and control.
problem Lack of interpretability and applicability to high-dimensional data like images.
method Unsupervised neural network model that learns Lagrangian dynamics from images using a coordinate-aware VAE.
result Model infers interpretable Lagrangian dynamics, enabling long-term prediction and synthesis of controllers.
The ability to accurately predict the surrounding environment is a foundational principle of intelligence in biological and artificial agents. In recent years, a variety of approaches have been proposed for learning to predict the physical dynamics of objects interacting in a visual scene. Here we conduct a systematic …