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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Dynamic Conditional Score

Paper analyzes stability and forgetting in score-based generative models.

problem Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models.
method Quantitative bounds on sampling error using stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain.
result Provides practical consequences of stability and contraction mechanism in sampling.

A new model forecasts Value-at-Risk using NIG distribution and dynamic scores.

problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) in financial markets.
method Proposes a parametric forecasting model based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG) incorporating intraday information.
result The model outperforms traditional GARCH models, especially in high-risk scenarios.

Training-free model learns SDE dynamics without training, accelerating parameter studies.

problem High computational cost of simulating parameter-dependent SDEs.
method Training-free conditional diffusion model with joint kernel-weighted Monte Carlo estimator.
result Accurate approximation of conditional distributions across varying parameter values.

Proposes a new method for constrained generative modeling using Langevin dynamics.

problem Challenges in satisfying underlying constraints with score-based generative models.
method Uses kinetic Langevin dynamics with specular reflection to model constraints.
result Demonstrates efficient numerical samplers with optimal convergence rates.

The paper proposes a new method to predict VaR using DCS and generalized distributions.

problem Improving VaR prediction models in financial risk management.
method Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) model combined with generalized distributions (GD).
result The proposed model outperforms traditional models in high-risk VaR prediction.

Generative diffusion models are analyzed for their information dynamics.

problem Lack of a unified theoretical understanding of generative diffusion models.
method Integrated perspective connecting information-theoretic, dynamical, and thermodynamic aspects.
result Generative bandwidth is directly governed by the divergence of the score function's vector field.

Algorithm learns non-Gaussian graphical models via Hessian scores and triangular transport.

problem Learning graph structure from non-Gaussian data.
method Score based on integrated Hessian information, coupled with triangular transport map.
result Algorithm successfully recovers graph structure for non-Gaussian data.

New method calibrates stochastic reduced-order models from data efficiently.

problem Challenges in estimating drift and diffusion coefficients from data for high-dimensional systems.
method Uses a novel relationship between conditional score and transition density to constrain model coefficients directly from finite-lag statistics.
result Validated on various systems, the method reproduces statistical and dynamical properties of the original models.

New method detects changes in high-dimensional Markov processes without explicit likelihood evaluation.

problem Quickest change detection in Markov processes with unknown transition kernels.
method Learn conditional score from sample pairs, develop score-based CUSUM procedure.
result Exponential lower bounds on mean time to false alarm and asymptotic upper bounds on detection delay.

Novel method for SDE calibration from sparse data using neural flows.

problem Calibrating SDEs from sparse, noisy observations.
method Characterization of posterior SDE using neural networks trained to solve a PDE with multiplicative updates.
result Significant improvement in scalability and accuracy compared to classical methods.

New method optimizes portfolios by dynamically integrating ESG constraints.

problem Static ESG scores mismatch sequential portfolio decisions.
method MACF-X, a family of adapters that learns ESG costs from multimodal evidence.
result Reduces tail ESG budget pressure while maintaining financial performance.

Model analyzes RFQ markets using stochastic control to optimize dealer performance and inventory.

problem Optimizing market making in aggregator-routed RFQ markets with varying dealer performance scores.
method Two-tier stochastic control model that separates RFQ-level price competition from macro routing.
result Optimal controls can be expressed through derivatives of reduced Hamiltonians, leading to interpretable mappings from optimal win probabilities to optimal offsets.

A new method uses LLMs to discover causal pathways that affect fairness in machine learning.

problem Discovering fairness-relevant causal pathways in the presence of noise and confounding.
method Hybrid LLM-guided causal discovery framework combining active learning and dynamic scoring.
result LLM-guided methods, including the proposed active, dynamically scored variant, outperform baselines in recovering fairness-relevant structure under noisy conditions.

A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.

problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.

Langevin dynamics fails to produce accurate samples even with small score function errors.

problem Robustness of Langevin dynamics to score function errors.
method Analysis of Langevin dynamics and score function errors.
result Langevin dynamics produces a distribution far from the target distribution in TV distance even with small L2L^2 errors in the score function.

Paper analyzes Langevin dynamics for solving infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems.

problem Solving high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems in infinite-dimensional function spaces.
method Preconditioned Langevin dynamics with score-based generative models (SGMs).
result Derives error estimates and sufficient conditions for global convergence in Kullback-Leibler divergence.

Framework uses diffusion models to infer material properties from noisy mechanical measurements.

problem Inference of spatially varying material properties from noisy mechanical responses.
method Conditional score-based diffusion models approximating the score function of a conditional distribution.
result Framework can efficiently solve large-scale physics-based inverse problems.

This paper analyzes error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.

problem Analyzing error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
method Develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for SMC samplers with biased mutation kernels.
result Derives the first non-asymptotic error bound for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models.

Paper presents algorithm for optimal job selection with dynamic scoring.

problem Optimal job assignment in a sequential selection process with dynamic scores.
method Developed using dynamic programming, with extensions for partial and no-information cases.
result Algorithm allows for optimal job assignment with limited information.

Paper analyzes Langevin dynamics for multimodal Gaussian mixtures, controlling errors across dimensions.

problem Challenges in obtaining stable diffusion-based samplers in high- and infinite-dimensional settings.
method Study of preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics (ALD) for Gaussian mixtures, focusing on Euler-Maruyama (EM) and exponential-integrator schemes.
result Proves dimension-uniform KL bounds for the exponential-integrator scheme, allowing arbitrarily small divergence with dimension.

AdaPID optimizes diffusion-based samplers by dynamically adjusting schedules.

problem Optimizing the intermediate-time dynamics in diffusion-based samplers.
method Develops a time-varying stiffness schedule using Piece-Wise-Constant (PWC) parametrizations and a hierarchical refinement approach.
result QoS-driven PWC schedules consistently improve sampling fidelity and accuracy.

Estimates system parameters from a single observation using kernel-based score.

problem Estimating parameters of a dynamical system from a high-dimensional signal.
method Kernel-based score to compare temporal dependencies between signal and model.
result Accuracy and efficiency demonstrated on chaotic systems.

Paper introduces non-adversarial training for Neural SDEs using signature kernel scores.

problem Stability and mode collapse issues in adversarial training of Neural SDEs.
method Uses signature kernel scores as objective function for non-adversarial training.
result Non-adversarial training leads to better performance and more stable models.

New method uses zeroth-order queries to approximate proximal sampling efficiently.

problem Approximating proximal sampling with zeroth-order information.
method Direct simulation of heat flow dynamics, treating intermediate distribution as Gaussian mixture.
result Inherits exponential convergence under isoperimetric conditions, avoids rejection sampling.

Develops diffusion samplers for target distributions with efficient score and density estimates.

problem Estimating scores and densities for time-varying distributions.
method Sequential Monte Carlo with diffusion paths and control variates.
result Effective samplers for time-varying distributions with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.

Paper solves dynamic portfolio selection using generative models.

problem Dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a model-free manner.
method Adaptive training and sampling methods for diffusion models, quantification bounds using adapted Wasserstein metric.
result Proposes a policy gradient algorithm that outperforms baselines on real data.

Study of diffusion annealed Langevin dynamics for generative models.

problem Theoretical efficiency of score-based diffusion processes.
method Rigorous construction and analysis of diffusion processes with Poincaré and logarithmic Sobolev inequalities.
result Improvement in efficiency of diffusion processes through Poincaré and logarithmic Sobolev inequalities.

Signals coming from multivariate higher order conditional moments as well as the information contained in exogenous covariates, can be effectively exploited by rational investors to allocate their wealth among different risky investment opportunities. This paper proposes a new flexible dynamic copula model being able t…

2016-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Annealed Langevin dynamics improves sampling from composite scores in SBI.

problem Irreducible bias in sampling from composite scores of SBI methods.
method Derive Wasserstein bounds and decision rules for hyperparameters.
result Explicit decision rules for hyperparameters guarantee prescribed sampling accuracy.

Neural network approximates diffusion bridges for efficiency and robustness.

problem Efficient simulation of conditioned diffusion processes, especially rare events and multimodal distributions.
method Trains a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, eliminating MCMC and score modeling.
result Efficient sampling of conditioned diffusion bridges at comparable cost to unconditioned process.

The paper uses double machine learning to estimate dynamic treatment effects robustly.

problem Estimating causal effects of dynamic treatments with time-varying covariates.
method Double machine learning with Neyman-orthogonal score functions for robustness.
result Asymptotic normality and n\sqrt{n}-consistency of the estimators under specific conditions.

Emergent misalignment is influenced by training dynamics, model priors, and data.

problem Emergent misalignment in models
method Exploring training dynamics, model priors, and data
result Activation deltas before and after narrow fine-tuning correlate with their similarities when measured with the last prompt-token activations.

LD-EnSF speeds up data assimilation with sparse observations.

problem Efficiently assimilate sparse and noisy data into complex dynamical systems.
method LD-EnSF uses latent dynamics networks and history-aware LSTM encoders to process sparse observations without full-space simulations.
result Achieves significant speedups over existing methods while maintaining high accuracy.