Proposes a non-conjugate model selection method for chain event graphs.
problem Existing model selection algorithms for chain event graphs rely on conjugate priors, which is unrealistic for many real-world applications.
method Proposes a mixture modelling approach to model selection in chain event graphs that does not rely on conjugacy.
result The proposed method is more scalable and robust than existing algorithms.
A new method for CT-DCEGs simplifies inference for asymmetric processes.
problem Inference in asymmetric state space problems with continuous time evolution.
method An extension of CEG propagation for CT-DCEGs, employing junction tree inference.
result CT-DCEGs are preferred over DBNs and continuous time BNs for asymmetric processes.
Develops N Time-Slice DCEG for analyzing inmate radicalization.
problem Limited application of DCEG due to its generality.
method Object-oriented method to analyze NT-DCEG and Markov processes.
result Context-specific independence statements from graph topology.
stCEG models spatial events using Chain Event Graphs in R.
problem Modeling events over spatial areas.
method Full specification of CEG models from data, interactive plots, web GUI.
result First software for CEGs with full model customisation.
NT-DCEG models dynamic processes with specific periodicity, proving useful for multivariate processes.
problem Modeling dynamic processes with specific periodicity and context-specific independences.
method Developed a method to distributively construct NT-DCEG models and used graph topology to infer context-specific independences.
result NT-DCEGs contain all discrete N time-slice Dynamic Bayesian Networks as special cases.
A new algorithm converts staged trees into Chain Event Graphs.
problem Creating explicit representations of structural zeros and conditional independences.
method Iterative backward algorithm transforming a staged tree into a CEG.
result No information is lost in the transformation from staged tree to CEG.
Python package cegpy models processes with asymmetries.
problem Leveraging CEGs for processes with structural asymmetries.
method Developed cegpy, a Python package for CEGs with Bayesian model selection and probability propagation.
result First CEG package in any language that can model symmetric and asymmetric structures.
The class of chain event graph models is a generalisation of the class of discrete Bayesian networks, retaining most of the structural advantages of the Bayesian network for model interrogation, propagation and learning, while more naturally encoding asymmetric state spaces and the order in which events happen. In this…
This study analyzes dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios, identifying key risk factors and extreme events.
problem Understanding dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios under various risk factors and extreme events.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study spillover and interconnectedness of risk factors.
result Risk shocks influence dynamic connectedness between portfolios and risk factors, and extreme events affect investment outcomes.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
problem Modeling event dynamics with changing trends over time.
method Sequential latent variable model with dynamic latent graphs.
result Higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types.
Graph Hawkes Neural Network forecasts evolving graph sequences.
problem Modeling dynamic graph sequences with complex event types.
method Generalized Hawkes process to neural network, capturing complex event impacts.
result Effective at predicting future events in evolving graph sequences.
GAttNHP predicts future events in temporal knowledge graphs by encoding long-range dependencies and handling mutual excitation.
problem Forecasting future events in temporal knowledge graphs due to long-range dependencies, mutual excitation, and heavy-tailed inter-arrival times.
method GAttNHP uses a self-attention encoder, semantic soft-grouping, and NCQ regression to address these issues.
result GAttNHP improves entity and time prediction on six benchmark TKG datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
New algorithm speeds up sampling for complex statistical models.
problem Sampling parameters of high-dimensional CTMCs is challenging.
method Developed a local version of the Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS) with exact event times.
result Algorithm achieves favorable computational efficiency for real-data scenarios.
New method identifies sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
problem Identify sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
method Linear multivariate Hawkes process model with ReLU link function, coupled with gradient-based method.
result Identifies several interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis.
DDP models dynamic comorbidity networks from event data.
problem Understanding complex temporal patterns of co-occurring diseases.
method Developed deep diffusion processes (DDP) to model dynamic comorbidity networks.
result DDP enables accurate risk prediction and interpretable disease trajectories.
EvoNet predicts events in time-series data by evolving state graphs.
problem Predicting events in time-series data with interpretable patterns.
method Evolutionary State Graph (ESG) and EvoNet model.
result EvoNet outperforms baselines and provides insights into event predictions.
R package stagedtrees learns staged tree structures from data.
problem Learning the structure of staged trees from data.
method Score-based and clustering-based algorithms implemented.
result Illustrated capabilities using two datasets.
DGE learns event representations from image sequences without manual annotations.
problem Data hunger and domain adaptation issues in self-supervised learning for temporal segmentation.
method Dynamic Graph Embedding (DGE) learns event representations by iteratively updating a graph and its embedding.
result DGE achieves robust temporal segmentation on benchmark datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences without prior knowledge.
problem Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences with unknown marker relations.
method Adversarial imitation learning framework decomposed into latent structural intensity model, efficient random walk model, and seq2seq discriminator.
result Effective detection of hidden network among markers and decent prediction for future events.
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or Internet memes shared via social media. Neuron spikes stimulate or inhibit spike…
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
A new metric based on hitting probabilities for directed graphs and Markov chains.
problem Lack of metrics specifically adapted to asymmetric structure of directed graphs and Markov chains.
method Metric based on hitting probabilities, insensitive to shortest and average walk distances.
result New structural theory of directed graphs and utility for various applications.
Extends Neural ODEs to model discrete changes in continuous systems.
problem Lack of explicit termination time in existing Neural ODE formulations.
method Introduces neural event functions to implicitly define termination criteria.
result Models discrete changes in continuous systems without prior knowledge.
Graph learning captures financial dynamics over time.
problem Understanding the evolving patterns in financial interactions.
method Graph Representation Learning applied to a dynamic financial graph.
result Captured latent trajectories reveal insights into economic events.
Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.
problem Understanding order dynamics during extreme macroeconomic events.
method First-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model.
result Active participation by different traders during high volatility days, influencing market outcomes.
New MCMC method estimates systemic risk allocations efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating systemic risk allocations under rare events.
method Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimating conditional marginal loss distributions.
result MCMC estimator provides efficient estimates of risk allocations.
Crypto markets show negative spillovers between chains, not positive co-movements.
problem Negative spillovers in crypto asset returns across different blockchains.
method On-chain data from multiple blockchains (Ethereum, Solana, Binance, Arbitrum, Avalanche) analyzed over 2022-2025.
result Surges on one chain often coincide with declines on others, especially during attention shocks.
Efficient event generation for collider phenomenology using parallel Langevin sampling and learned Stein diagnostics.
problem Event generation for precision collider phenomenology.
method Parallel Langevin sampling with learned Stein diagnostics.
result Relaxation time is estimated using a data-driven approach.
Bayesian model detects sudden changes in stock market correlations during pandemic.
problem Capturing sudden structural changes in financial dependence during global events.
method Develops a Bayesian multivariate stochastic volatility model based on time-varying graphs.
result Captures abrupt changes in dependence structure across US stock portfolios.
How can we effectively encode evolving information over dynamic graphs into low-dimensional representations? In this paper, we propose DyRep, an inductive deep representation learning framework that learns a set of functions to efficiently produce low-dimensional node embeddings that evolves over time. The learned embe…
TGNs learn from dynamic graphs efficiently and outperform previous methods.
problem Learning from graphs that evolve over time.
method Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) combining memory and graph operators.
result Significantly outperforms previous approaches on dynamic graphs.
We present a new family of models that is based on graphs that may have undirected, directed and bidirected edges. We name these new models marginal AMP (MAMP) chain graphs because each of them is Markov equivalent to some AMP chain graph under marginalization of some of its nodes. However, MAMP chain graphs do not onl…
Proposes a parsimonious graph spectral method for time series data.
problem Efficiently transmitting multivariate time series data.
method Graph spectral embedding with unsupervised, parsimonious encoding.
result Near-linear computational complexity and interpretable event structure.
DisCoveR efficiently discovers declarative process models from event logs.
problem Mining declarative process models from event logs efficiently and accurately.
method DisCoveR precisely formalizes an algorithm, uses a bit vector implementation, and rigorously evaluates performance.
result DisCoveR outperforms other declarative miners in accuracy and runtime.
MEG models for dynamic networks estimate dependencies and shared latent space relationships.
problem Modeling dynamic networks with shared latent space relationships and dependencies.
method MEG combines mutually exciting point processes and latent space models to estimate node-specific parameters and unobserved edges.
result MEG models can estimate intensities for unobserved edges, useful for anomaly detection in real-world applications.
BiDAG R package learns and samples Bayesian network structures efficiently.
problem Efficiently learning and sampling Bayesian network structures.
method Hybrid approach combining PC algorithm, iterative order MCMC, and partition MCMC.
result BiDAG can handle both discrete and continuous data.
From social networks to Internet applications, a wide variety of electronic communication tools are producing streams of graph data; where the nodes represent users and the edges represent the contacts between them over time. This has led to an increased interest in mechanisms to model the dynamic structure of time-var…
Graph neural networks detect anomalies in object-centric business processes.
problem Detecting anomalies in graph-like business processes.
method Graph convolutional autoencoder architecture for anomaly detection.
result Promising performance in detecting anomalies at the activity type and attributes level.
Model assesses how supply chain disruptions affect financial stability.
problem Systemic risk in production networks and its financial implications.
method Data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework combining supply chain and interbank networks.
result Increase of up to 28% in financial systemic risk due to production network contagion.
LAD detects anomalies in dynamic graphs using Laplacian matrix.
problem Anomaly detection in temporal graphs for real-world applications.
method LAD uses the spectrum of the Laplacian matrix to model graph snapshots and temporal dependencies.
result LAD outperforms state-of-the-art methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate each other with correlated levels of contagion. We generalize a recent algorithm f…
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
The monitoring of large dynamic networks is a major chal- lenge for a wide range of application. The complexity stems from properties of the underlying graphs, in which slight local changes can lead to sizable variations of global prop- erties, e.g., under certain conditions, a single link cut that may be overlooked du…
Neural network approximates diffusion bridges for efficiency and robustness.
problem Efficient simulation of conditioned diffusion processes, especially rare events and multimodal distributions.
method Trains a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, eliminating MCMC and score modeling.
result Efficient sampling of conditioned diffusion bridges at comparable cost to unconditioned process.
The study quantifies Brexit risk using SABR dynamics and Bayesian methods.
problem Measuring tail risk in EUR-GBP options related to Brexit.
method Data-driven statistical indicator, lognormal SABR dynamics, Bayesian estimation, inverse calibration problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo.
result A closed-form expression for the martingale defect quantifying tail risk.
Enhances network intrusion detection in noisy data.
problem Robustness against contaminated and noisy data inputs in network intrusion detection.
method Probabilistic Temporal Graph Network Support Vector Data Description (TGN-SVDD) model.
result Significant improvements in detection performance with synthetic noise.
Paper monitors system state sequences to detect and assess deviations.
problem Detecting and evaluating deviations in dynamic systems.
method Data reduction, symbolic representation, anomaly detection, Markov Chains, generalized Jensen-Shannon Divergence.
result The approach detects and assesses system deviations probabilistically.
This paper deals with chain graphs under the alternative Andersson-Madigan-Perlman (AMP) interpretation. In particular, we present a constraint based algorithm for learning an AMP chain graph a given probability distribution is faithful to. We also show that the extension of Meek's conjecture to AMP chain graphs does n…