The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
The dissertation investigates the application of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in forecasting the price of Crude Oil. This research is important because crude oil plays a very pivotal role in the global economy hence is a very critical macroeconomic indicator of the industrial growth. Given the vast amount of m…
Study uses APT and QR to identify risk factors affecting crude oil returns.
problem Determining the risk factors impacting crude oil returns.
method Employed Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression.
result Identified key risk factors: industrial production, inflation, energy prices, yield curve shape, and economic policy uncertainty.
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
problem Predicting crude oil futures volatility using global economic policy uncertainty.
method Established single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS framework, tested with rolling-window and fixed-span specifications.
result GEPU changes have stronger predictive power than the GEPU index for crude oil futures volatility.
The paper presents a method for detecting jump sizes in crude oil prices.
problem Detecting jump sizes in crude oil price data.
method Sequential hypothesis testing using infinitesimal generators and super-solutions.
result The method improves the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for derivative and commodity market analysis.
Crude oil is a major component in most advanced economies of the world. Accurately predicting and understanding the behavior of crude oil prices is important for economists, analysts, forecasters, and traders, to name a few. The price of crude oil has declined in the past decade and is seeing a phase of stability; but …
Study shows how COVID-19 pandemic affected China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on China's crude oil futures market efficiency.
method Multifractal analysis to compare market efficiency before and during the pandemic.
result Market efficiency of SC and its cross-correlations with other assets increased significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19.
Coronavirus impacts oil prices through volatility and direct effects.
problem Impact of coronavirus on oil prices and volatility.
method ARDL estimation controlling for financial volatility and US economic policy uncertainty.
result COVID-19 daily infections have a negative long-term impact on oil prices.
Study uses a bivariate model to price crude oil futures.
problem Pricing crude oil futures using latent factors and state-space models.
method Modelled short and long term factors as OU processes, estimated using Kalman Filter and maximised Gaussian likelihood.
result Successfully estimated model parameters and factors from WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data.
Hybrid approach improves crude oil price forecasting using multi-scale data.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices with multi-scale data.
method Hybrid approach combining K-means, KPCA, and KELM.
result Hybrid approach outperforms traditional methods in both level and directional forecasting accuracy.
The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested …
New risk measures incorporate economic states to assess crude oil derivatives.
problem Assessing risk in crude oil derivatives with varying economic conditions.
method Introduced regime switching entropic risk measures using Markov chains.
result Closed formulae for risk measures derived, showing term structure and mean-reverting convenience yield.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
problem Understanding dynamic spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission, and climate markets.
method A novel R2 decomposed connectedness approach. result Overall spillovers are mainly contemporaneous, not lagged; climate change significantly impacts others; agricultural markets have heterogeneous effects; corn is a major risk contributor.
This paper analyzes the direction of the causality between crude oil, gold and stock markets for the largest economy in the world with respect to such markets, the US. To do so, we apply non-linear Granger causality tests. We find a nonlinear causal relationship among the three markets considered, with the causality go…
Paper introduces new indicators for forecasting crude oil prices using short news headlines.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices from short, noisy news headlines using LDA.
method Developed two novel indicators for topic and sentiment from short text data, and applied AdaBoost.RT.
result AdaBoost.RT with the proposed indicators outperforms benchmarks in crude oil forecasting.
Model assesses systemic risk in crude oil and gasoline futures markets.
problem Systemic risk in high-frequency crude oil and gasoline futures markets.
method Hawkes flocking model examining endogeneity and interactivity.
result Significantly higher endogenous systemic risk in WTI crude oil compared to gasoline, with gasoline having a higher influence on WTI.
We perform detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) to investigate its efficiency. We further put forward a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis by employing th…
Study shows oil prices but not COVID-19 cases affect US economic policy uncertainty.
problem Effect of COVID-19 and crude oil prices on US economic policy uncertainty.
method Used ARDL model with daily data from January 21-March 13, 2020.
result Crude oil price dynamics increase US economic policy uncertainty, while COVID-19 cases have mixed effects.
Refined BN-S model improves crude oil hedging with machine learning.
problem Finding optimal hedging strategy for commodity markets.
method Implemented a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with machine learning algorithms.
result The refined model performs better than the classical BN-S model.
Improved crude oil price forecasting using multi-dimensional LLM sentiment signals.
problem Challenges in predicting crude oil prices due to unstructured news.
method Extracted five sentiment dimensions from GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and FinBERT models on energy-sector news articles.
result Combining GPT-4o and FinBERT yields the best predictive performance for weekly WTI crude oil futures returns.
We created financial benchmarks for distribution shifts in crude oil prices and volatility.
problem Scarcity of task-labeled time-series benchmarks in finance.
method Transformed asset price data into volatility proxies, generated task labels based on distribution shifts, and made datasets publicly available.
result Inclusion of task labels improves continual learning algorithms' performance on real-world data.
Improved BN-S model for crude oil price analysis using machine learning.
problem Limitations of the BN-S model, especially lack of long-range dependence.
method Refined BN-S model with machine learning algorithms.
result The refined model is more efficient and has fewer parameters.
Research uses SWT and BDLSTM to forecast stock and oil prices amid COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock and oil prices forecasting.
method Integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks.
result BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in Crude Oil price forecasting.
Study analyzes crude oil futures markets using visibility graphs to understand their structure and dynamics.
problem Understanding the structure and dynamics of crude oil futures markets during global challenges.
method Visibility graph analysis of daily and high-frequency data.
result Crude oil futures markets exhibit small-world properties and assortative mixing, with unique sensitivities to global disruptions.
Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underly…
Machine learning models outperform traditional trading strategies in crude oil markets.
problem Improving trading strategies in volatile markets.
method Comparison of four machine learning methods (LSTM, RF, SVM, k-NN) with traditional methods.
result Machine learning models outperformed traditional methods in crude oil market performance.
Study uses multiple online media to predict crude oil prices.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices using online media.
method Semantic analysis and ARIMAX models on Twitter, Google Trends, Wikipedia, and GDELT.
result Combined analysis from four platforms improves price prediction.
Study reduces financial dynamics complexity using PCA for NASDAQ, oil, gold, and USD.
problem Understanding complex financial interactions among multiple assets.
method Time-delay embedding and PCA for dimensionality reduction, followed by linear regression.
result Limited number of principal components capture dominant dynamics of each asset.
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil. After estimating the volatility process without assuming any specific form of its b…
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
problem Complexity and ambiguity in financial and economic systems make precise exchange rate predictions difficult.
method Developed a fundamental-based model using machine learning and interpretability methods.
result Crude oil is the leading factor determining exchange rate dynamics, with significant events affecting its contribution.
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models) and the two-regime Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) …
This article investigates the correlation structure of the global crude oil market using the daily returns of 71 oil price time series across the world from 1992 to 2012. We identify from the correlation matrix six clusters of time series exhibiting evident geographical traits, which supports Weiner's (1991) regionaliz…
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is…
We detect and quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers using the realized semivariances of petroleum commodities: crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. During the 1987--2014 period we document increasing spillovers from volatility among petroleum commodities that substantially change after the 2008 financial crisi…
We reinvestigate the "rockets and feathers" effect between retail gasoline and crude oil prices in a new framework of fractional integration, long-term memory and borderline (non-)stationarity. The most frequently used error-correction model is examined in detail and we find that the prices return to their equilibrium …
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
Study shows adding correlated features doesn't improve LSTM model interpretability for oil stocks.
problem Improving interpretability of LSTM models for predicting oil company stocks.
method Designed and trained Standard LSTM networks using various correlated datasets.
result Adding correlated features does not enhance LSTM model interpretability.
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to …
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
The Heston model is validated for option pricing using theoretical derivations and empirical market data.
problem Validating the Heston model for accurate option pricing.
method Theoretical derivations and empirical validations using Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning.
result The Heston model is robust and relevant for current financial markets.
Energy markets are strategic to governments and economic development. Several commodities compete as substitutable energy sources and energy diversifiers. Such competition reduces the energy vulnerability of countries as well as portfolios' risk exposure. Vulnerability results mainly from price trends and fluctuations,…
This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of oil market during the last three decades, and examines changes in informational efficiency with major geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, financial crisis and other important events. The series under study is the daily prices of West Texas Intermediate (WT…
Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011, by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tig…
The paper analyzes gold, oil, and bitcoin futures volatility and basis.
problem Understanding the volatility and basis of gold, oil, and bitcoin futures.
method Contract-by-contract analysis of spot and futures prices, trading volume, and open interest data.
result Trading volume positively affects volatility in all three assets, while open interest has a possible negative effect.
Study strategic competition in commodity markets using impulse-switching controls.
problem Strategic competition between upstream and downstream firms in commodity markets.
method Non-zero-sum stochastic differential game with mixed impulse/switching controls.
result Multiple Nash equilibria found, depending on the number of switches by the downstream firm.
GIV methodology extends instrumental variable estimation for high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating structural parameters in high-dimensional models with endogeneity and latent factors.
method Extends GIV methodology to large N and T, treats factors and loadings as unknown, and uses additional instruments for efficiency.
result Efficiency gains and negligible sampling errors in estimated instrument and factors.
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal,…